Figure 1
Figure 2
Figure 3
Figure 4
Figure 5
Estimates of Cox Proportional Hazard Model across cohorts (with Efron correction for ties)
| Before 1980 | 1980–1989 | 1990–1999 | 2000–2005 | 2006–2010 | Full Sample | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | I | II | III | IV | V | VI | VII | VIII | IX | X | XI | XII |
| Zero employees (dummy) | 2.8070*** (0.2336) | 2.8000*** (0.2944) | 2.5559*** (0.1243) | 2.7103*** (0.1802) | 2.2888*** (0.0633) | 2.3643*** (0.0950) | 1.8708*** (0.0604) | 1.7485*** (0.0837) | 1.5619*** (0.0522) | 1.4044*** (0.0757) | 2.3399*** (0.0319) | 2.3515*** (0.0456) |
| 1–4 employees (dummy) | 2.3839*** (0.2267) | 2.2396*** (0.2806) | 2.0433*** (0.1182) | 2.0209*** (0.1676) | 1.8728*** (0.0613) | 1.9320*** (0.0907) | 1.5236*** (0.0591) | 1.4739*** (0.0813) | 1.4025*** (0.0515) | 1.2854*** (0.0741) | 2.0167*** (0.0312) | 1.9798*** (0.0443) |
| 5–9 employees(dummy) | 0.6038** (0.2901) | 0.4123 (0.3647) | 0.4429*** (0.1475) | 0.5626*** (0.2052) | 0.5546*** (0.0731) | 0.6117*** (0.1067) | 0.4683*** (0.0699) | 0.4649*** (0.0941) | 0.4088*** (0.0592) | 0.4190*** (0.0840) | 0.6365*** (0.0367) | 0.6768*** (0.0514) |
| 10–49 employees (reference) | ||||||||||||
| 50+ employees (dummy) | −0.7813 (0.5476) | −0.9160 (0.7595) | −0.5952* (0.3534) | −0.7864 (0.5282) | −1.2315*** (0.2569) | −1.6639*** (0.5082) | −0.7745*** (0.2211) | −0.5609* (0.2884) | −1.1967*** (0.2479) | −1.4514*** (0.4148) | −1.1194*** (0.1248) | −1.0761*** (0.1905) |
| Minimum efficient scale | 0.5259* (0.2786) | 0.2766 (0.4136) | 0.4961*** (0.1286) | −0.0704 (0.2357) | 0.1682*** (0.0567) | 0.1692* (0.0976) | 0.3113*** (0.0472) | 0.3809*** (0.0693) | 0.3784*** (0.0333) | 0.3543*** (0.0559) | 0.3379*** (0.0240) | 0.5294*** (0.0378) |
| Entry rate | −0.0631 (0.0399) | −0.0904 (0.0582) | −0.0824*** (0.0184) | −0.0441 (0.0332) | −0.0624*** (0.0082) | −0.0943*** (0.0147) | −0.0389*** (0.0068) | −0.0818*** (0.0116) | −0.0582*** (0.0041) | −0.0639*** (0.0077) | −0.0146*** (0.0030) | −0.0267*** (0.0054) |
| Sectorial growth | 0.0059 (0.4335) | −0.1751 (0.5975) | −0.0008 (0.2698) | −0.2557 (0.4520) | −0.3820*** (0.1243) | −0.7363*** (0.2161) | −1.0207*** (0.0989) | −1.2379*** (0.1529) | −0.6106*** (0.0613) | −0.6844*** (0.0961) | −0.7563*** (0.0413) | −0.9628*** (0.0628) |
| Entry size | 0.1802* (0.1071) | 0.2062 (0.1287) | 0.1499*** (0.0424) | 0.2648*** (0.0701) | 0.1282*** (0.0202) | 0.1738*** (0.0317) | 0.1213*** (0.0235) | 0.1853*** (0.0341) | 0.1489*** (0.0149) | 0.1329*** (0.0276) | 0.1283*** (0.0102) | 0.1194*** (0.0178) |
| Herfindahl Index | −0.5713** (0.2641) | −0.5779* (0.3366) | 0.3506 0.2318) | −0.0652 (0.4111) | 0.3360*** (0.1119) | 0.7006*** (0.1899) | −0.1750** (0.0864) | −0.2123* (0.1155) | 0.1574*** (0.0611) | 0.2390** (0.0961) | 0.1419*** (0.0435) | 0.2214*** (0.0643) |
| Entry and exit cost | −0.2417*** (0.0701) | −0.3151*** (0.1015) | −0.2386*** (0.0304) | −0.1392** (0.0584) | −0.1917*** (0.0136) | −0.2164*** (0.0260) | −0.1575*** (0.0115) | −0.2106*** (0.0199) | −0.1906*** (0.0071) | −0.2230*** (0.0132_ | −0.2238*** (0.0052) | −0.2657*** (0.0093) |
| Entry rate x sectorial growth | −0.0191 (0.0541) | 0.0169 (0.0888) | 0.0276 (0.0357) | 0.0551 (0.0660) | 0.0679*** (0.0162) | 0.1270*** (0.0314) | 0.1175*** (0.0124) | 0.3809*** (0.0693) | 0.0521*** (0.0069) | 0.0613*** (0.0118) | 0.0798*** (0.0046) | 0.1123** (0.0078) |
| Capital intensity | −0.0305 (0.0349) | −0.0108 (0.0475) | −0.0284* (0.0158) | 0.0278 (0.0260) | −0.0019 (0.0069) | 0.0011 (0.0122) | −0.0063 (0.0059) | −0.0818*** (0.0116) | −0.0101*** (0.0040) | −0.0257*** (0.0066) | 0.0006 (0.0029) | 0.0014 (0.0048) |
| Low technology/low knowledge services/other (reference) | ||||||||||||
| High and medium/high technology (dummy) | 0.2550 (0.3090) | 0.0696 (0.4206) | 0.4068** (0.1713) | 0.5186** (0.2430) | −0.0166 (0.1238) | −0.1268 (0.2054) | 0.1022 (0.1027) | 0.1464 (0.1381) | 0.0638 (0.0819) | 0.1184 (0.1192) | 0.0291 (0.0529) | 0.0763 (0.0771) |
| Knowledge-intensive services (dummy) | 0.0176 (0.1739) | 0.0573 (0.2493) | 0.0711 (0.0761) | −0.1434 (0.1468) | −0.0030 (0.0328) | 0.0071 (0.0621) | 0.0260 (0.0263) | 0.0228 (0.0432) | 0.0424** (0.0177) | 0.0591* (0.0319) | 0.0666*** (0.0130) | 0.0986*** (0.0228) |
| Born pre-financial crisis (dummy) | 0.1714*** (0.0098) | 0.1348*** (0.0164) | −1.4809*** (0.0099) | −1.5047*** (0.0164) | ||||||||
| Regional unemployment growth | 0.0383 (0.1068) | 0.1014 (0.2556) | 0.0782 (0.0497) | 0.2485** (0.1229) | 0.0467** (0.0225) | 0.0420 (0.0555) | 0.0179 (0.0187) | 0.0259 (0.0389) | 0.0243* (0.0134) | 0.0167 (0.0299) | 0.0146 (0.0096) | 0.0554*** (0.0213) |
| Urban (dummy) | 0.0169 (0.0888) | 0.0757 (0.0716) | 0.0174 (0.0311) | 0.0600*** (0.0225) | 0.0620*** (0.0183) | 0.0163 (0.0125) | ||||||
| Percentage at work | 0.0136 (0.1250) | −0.0061 (0.0065) | 0.0032 (0.0029) | −0.0002 (0.0021) | −0.0017 (0.0016) | 0.0042*** (0.0012) | ||||||
| Percentage with third-level education | 0.0056 (0.0120) | 0.0137 (0.0099) | −0.0001 (0.0045) | −0.0008 (0.0031) | 0.0018 (0.0025) | 0.0013 (0.0017) | ||||||
| Percentage working in agri forestry, fishing | 0.0112 (0.0187) | 0.0072 (0.0173) | −0.0224*** (0.0080) | −0.0143*** (0.0053) | 0.0004 (0.0042) | −0.0070** (0.0031) | ||||||
| Percentage working in construction | −0.0040 (0.0308) | 0.0042 (0.0099) | 0.0067 (0.0043) | 0.0027 (0.0031) | 0.0032 (0.0025) | 0.0100*** (0.0017) | ||||||
| Percentage working in manufacturing | −0.0101 (0.0179) | −0.0151** (0.0073) | 0.0029 (0.0030) | −0.0018 (0.0023) | −0.0007 (0.0018) | −0.0001 (0.0013) | ||||||
| Percentage working in commerce trade | −0.0028 (0.0127) | −0.0120 (0.0081) | −0.0030 (0.0036) | −0.0020 (0.0027) | 0.0032 (0.0022) | −0.0006 (0.0015) | ||||||
| Percentage working in transport commerce | 0.0037 (0.0144) | 0.0067 (0.0168) | 0.0142 (0.0074) | −0.0006 (0.0054) | −0.0044 (0.0043) | 0.0083*** (0.0030) | ||||||
| Percentage working in public administration | 0.0271 (0.0310) | 0.0128 (0.0121) | −0.0026** (0.0060) | −0.0129*** (0.0044) | 0.0024 (0.0033) | 0.0003 (0.0023) | ||||||
| Percentage working in professional services | 0.0294 (0.0186) | −0.0023 (0.0076) | 0.0001 (0.0034) | −0.0089*** (0.0025) | −0.0039** (0.0020) | −0.0038*** (0.0014) | ||||||
| Agriculture, fishing and extractive (dummy) | −0.3651 (0.2263) | −0.6301** (0.2871) | 0.2061** (0.1006) | −0.3567* (0.1875) | 0.0806* (0.0490) | −0.0224*** 0.0080 | −0.1330** (0.0468) | −0.3979*** (0.0794) | −0.3221*** (0.0374) | −0.4112*** (0.0678) | −0.5427*** (0.0226) | −0.5816*** (0.0420) |
| Manufacturing (reference) | ||||||||||||
| Construction (dummy) | −0.1958 (0.1876) | −0.2187 (0.2517) | 0.0676 (0.0982) | 0.3564** (0.1561) | 0.2832*** (0.0478) | 0.4141*** 0.0739 | 0.2371*** (0.0375) | 0.2828*** (0.0494) | 0.1819*** (0.0288) | 0.1182** (0.0440) | 0.4709*** (0.0198) | 0.4370*** (0.0284) |
| Wholesalers, retail and repair of motor vehicles (dummy) | −0.5627*** (0.1575) | −0.7999*** (0.2092) | −0.0840 (0.0896) | 0.0579 (0.1368) | 0.0127 (0.0455) | 0.0449 0.0689 | 0.0595 (0.0395) | 0.0369 (0.0516) | 0.0893*** (0.0291) | 0.1573*** (0.0439) | −0.0522*** (0.0200) | −0.0840*** (0.0287) |
| Accommodation and food (dummy) | −0.7694*** (0.1974) | −0.8601*** (0.2443) | −0.0701 (0.1041) | 0.0356 (0.1543) | 0.2204*** (0.0497) | 0.2486*** 0.0733 | 0.1835*** (0.0491) | 0.1258** (0.0633) | 0.1629*** (0.0344) | 0.1761** (0.0536) | −0.0182 (0.0232) | −0.1295*** (0.0332) |
| Professional, scientific, technical (dummy) | −0.4876* (0.2607) | −0.5067 (0.3590) | −0.1712 (0.1194) | 0.1905 (0.2119) | −0.0812 (0.0565) | −0.0512 0.0985 | −0.1169** (0.0458) | −0.0607 (0.0683) | −0.1302*** (0.0336) | −0.0933* (0.0551) | −0.0789*** (0.0235) | −0.0959** (0.0375) |
| Other services (dummy) | −0.2750* (0.1654) | −0.3281 (0.2142) | 0.0048 (0.0884) | 0.1095 (0.1367) | −0.0205 (0.0439) | − −0.0301 0.0664 | −0.0451 (0.0366) | −0.0996 (0.0472) | −0.0515* (0.0278) | −0.0371 (0.0420) | −0.0119 (0.0191) | −0.0582** (0.0273) |
| N | 5258 | 3432 | 39310 | 14625 | 73212 | 32544 | 74299 | 42065 | 130832 | 37687 | 322911 | 130353 |
| Event | 753 | 479 | 4547 | 1440 | 21220 | 7649 | 25595 | 14136 | 51916 | 22328 | 104031 | 46032 |
| 2 LOG L (with covariates) | 10847 | 6503 | 88314 | 24270 | 425889 | 142146 | 530876 | 277168 | 1142381 | 443823 | 2428677 | 1002415 |
| Wald | 405*** | 282*** | 1294*** | 519*** | 3637*** | 1829 | 4045 *** | 2477 *** | 6737*** | 2401*** | 54276*** | 24654 *** |