Estimating the Relevance of First Offensive Shot Tactics in Table Tennis via Simulation Based on a Finite Markov Chain Model

Rothe, F.; Liu, R.; Lames, M.

doi:10.2478/ijcss-2025-0001

Figures & Tables

Flow chart of the state transition model exemplified on a rally starting with service for player A.

Example of a simulated change of the transition probability (%) between FOSA-S – Point B (Error) as well as the resulting winning probabilities (%) from the bronze medal match Lin vs Ovtcharov.

Transition matrix for the men’s final of the Tokyo Olympics 2020 between Fan Zhendong and Ma Long (4–11, 12–10, 8–11, 9–11, 11–3, 7–11).

Performance relevancies of transitions to following shots as well as error from FOSs and subsequent shots as absolute mean values.

Descriptive statistics of the performance relevance per state transition_

State Transitions	Mean		Median		Max.		Min.		Std.

	m	w	m	w	m	w	m	w	m	w
Serve-Def *	0.32	0.13	0.27	0.08	2.12	1.59	−1.08	−1.34	0.60	0.58
Serve-FOS-S	−0.22	−0.06	−0.18	−0.05	1.56	1.61	−2.12	−1.54	0.65	0.57
Serve-P	0.56	0.55	0.52	0.53	1.45	1.60	0.24	0.22	0.18	0.20
Serve-E	−0.67	−0.66	−0.62	−0.59	−0.24	−0.30	−1.71	−1.57	0.23	0.24
Def-Def *	0.44	0.25	0.37	0.19	2.64	1.31	−0.71	−0.55	0.49	0.33
Def-FOS-D	0.12	0.24	0.08	0.20	1.40	1.62	−1.27	−1.63	0.49	0.56
Def-P	0.52	0.51	0.49	0.46	1.81	1.24	0.16	0.04	0.24	0.25
Def-E	−0.91	−0.87	−0.84	−0.80	−0.12	−0.04	−2.17	−2.18	0.39	0.46
FOS-S-FOS+1	0.82	0.85	0.77	0.88	2.27	2.72	−0.31	−0.35	0.54	0.54
FOS-S-P	0.43	0.39	0.36	0.34	1.33	1.46	0.01	0.04	0.29	0.27
FOS-S-E	−1.11	−1.07	−1.09	−1.02	−0.06	−0.04	−2.62	−2.72	0.55	0.55
FOS-D-FOS+1	0.61	0.66	0.55	0.66	2.01	1.91	−0.81	−0.52	0.56	0.52
FOS-D-P	0.54	0.46	0.52	0.41	1.30	1.20	0.06	0.06	0.32	0.28
FOS-D-E	−1.07	−1.01	−1.02	−1.02	−0.09	−0.12	−2.45	−2.01	0.49	0.50
FOS+1-FOS+2	1.53	1.62	1.48	1.58	3.17	3.69	−0.24	0.15	0.72	0.73
FOS+1-P	0.90	0.82	0.85	0.71	2.69	1.96	0.04	0.20	0.47	0.40
FOS+1-E	−2.12	−2.13	−2.07	−2.10	−0.35	−0.62	−4.07	−4.02	0.76	0.75
FOS+2-FOS+3	0.77	0.89	0.69	0.85	2.66	2.06	−0.57	−0.13	0.53	0.46
FOS+2-P	0.46	0.45	0.43	0.38	1.55	1.30	0.04	0.03	0.27	0.29
FOS+2-E	−1.07	−1.15	−1.03	−1.12	−0.04	−0.16	−2.87	−2.49	0.50	0.53
FOS+3-Off	0.50	0.58	0.48	0.55	1.56	1.48	−0.44	−0.29	0.37	0.41
FOS+3-P	0.32	0.31	0.29	0.25	1.06	1.20	0.01	0.02	0.23	0.24
FOS+3-E	−0.72	−0.78	−0.67	−0.67	−0.02	0.00	−1.88	−2.00	0.42	0.43
Fin-Fin *	1.10	1.31	0.99	1.20	3.58	3.59	0.08	0.00	0.66	0.74
Fin-P	0.66	0.65	0.60	0.52	2.07	1.78	0.03	0.00	0.43	0.48
Fin-E	−1.51	−1.66	−1.31	−1.58	−0.27	0.00	−4.05	−4.24	0.78	0.97

Estimating the Relevance of First Offensive Shot Tactics in Table Tennis via Simulation Based on a Finite Markov Chain Model

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

Figure 2.

Figure 3

Figure 4.

Descriptive statistics of the performance relevance per state transition_

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