An empirical assessment of Ondo State's sustainable forestry initiative (2019–2023)

Sustainable forest management remains a critical challenge in many tropical regions where timber extraction continues to exert pressure on forest ecosystems. This study examines patterns of timber harvesting and forest cover change in Ondo State, southwestern Nigeria, between 2019 and 2023. Using forestry records and remote-sensing datasets on tree cover and primary forest loss, the study analysed temporal, seasonal, and spatial variations in timber extraction across Local Government Areas (LGAs). Results show that a total of 114,629 trees were felled during the study period, with annual harvesting declining from 29,556 trees in 2019 to 16,751 in 2023. Moderate positive correlations were observed between annual felling and both tree cover loss and primary forest loss (r = 0.47–0.65), indicating that the years with higher harvesting levels coincided with greater forest cover reductions. Seasonal analysis revealed higher cumulative harvesting during the wet season compared with the dry season, while spatial analysis showed that the dry rainforest zone accounted for the majority of recorded felling, particularly in Akure North, Owo, and Akure South LGAs. In contrast, lower extraction levels were observed in mangrove-dominated areas such as Ese-Odo and Ilaje. Forestry records also indicated the absence of species-level harvest data and limited documentation of replanting or restoration activities. These findings highlight the need to strengthen forest monitoring systems, integrate species-level reporting, and implement structured replanting programmes to support sustainable forest management and align subnational forestry practices with national climate and biodiversity objectives.