Climate change impacts on the distribution of deciduous forests in the Central Highlands of Vietnam
References
- A
dams , M.B., Kelly , C., Kabrick , J., Schuler , J., 2019. Chapter 6 – Temperate forests and soils. In Global change and forest soils. Developments in Soil Science, vol. 36. Elsevier, p. 83–108 https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-444-63998-1.00006-9 - A
li , S., Umair , M., Makanda , T.A., Shi , S., Hussain , S.A., Ni , J., 2024. Modeling current and future potential land distribution dynamics of wheat, rice, and maize under climate change scenarios using MaxEnt. Land, 13: 2–26. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13081156 - A
llen , B.J., Hill , D.J., Burke , A.M., Clark , M., Marchant , R., Stringer , L.C., Williams , D.R., Lyon , C., 2024. Projected future climatic forcing on the global distribution of vegetation types. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 379: 20230011. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2023.0011 - A
ppanah , S., Turnbull , J.M., 1998. A review of dipterocarps: taxonomy, ecology, and silviculture: Bogor, Indonesia: Center for International Forestry Research (CIFOR). 223 p. https://doi.org/10.17528/cifor/000463 - A
veryanov , L., Loc , P.K., Hiep , N.T., Harder , D., 2003. Phyto-geographic review of Vietnam and adjacent areas of Eastern Indochina. Komarovia, 3: 1–83. - B
ohl , C.L., Kass , J.M., Anderson , R.P., 2019. A new null model approach to quantify performance and significance for ecological niche models of species distributions. Journal of Biogeography, 46: 1101–1111. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.13573 - B
onannella , C., Hengl , T., Parente L.,de Bruin , S., 2023. Biomes of the world under climate change scenarios: increasing aridity and higher temperatures lead to significant shifts in natural vegetation. PeerJ, 11: e15593. DOI: 10.7717/peerj.15593 - B
rown , J.L., 2014. SDM toolbox: a python-based GIS toolkit for landscape genetic, biogeographic and species distribution model analyses. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 5: 694–700. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.12200 - D
ad , J.M., Rashid , I., 2025. Effect of climate change on potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea (D. Don) Soó in the twenty-first century across the north-western Himalayas. Folia Oecologica, 52 (1): 48–61. https://doi.org/10.2478/foecol-2025-0006 de Souza , B.C., Carvalho , E.C.D., Oliveira , R.S.,de Araujo , F.S.,de Lima , A.L.A., Rodal M.J.N., 2020. Drought response strategies of deciduous and evergreen woody species in a seasonally dry neotropical forest. Oecologia, 194: 221–236. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-020-04760-3- D
eb , J.C., Phinn , S., Butt , N., Mc Alpine , C.A., 2017. The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees. Ecology and Evolution, 7: 2238–2248. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.2846 - D
inh , T.T., Pham , M.P., Nguyen , Q.K., Bui , T.T.X., Nguyen , V.S., Vu , D.D., Tran , Q.B., Nguyen , V., Tuan , N.T., 2022. Neighbor trees and habitat suitability of Cinnamomum balansae Lecomte in North Central Coast and Northern Vietnam. Modeling Earth Systems and Environment, 8: 5327–5336. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40808-022-01378-7 - E
lith J.,H., Graham , C.,P., Anderson , R., Dudík , M., Ferrier , S., Guisan , A., Hijmans R.J., Huettmann , F., Leath -wick J.R., Lehmann , A., Li , J., Lohmann , L.G., Loiselle , B.A., Manion , G., Moritz , C., Nakamura , M., Nakazawa , Y., Overton , J.Mc C.M., Townsend Peterson , A., J. Phillips , S.J., Richardson , K., Scachetti -Pereira , R.E., Schapire , R.E., Soberón , J., Williams , S., Wisz , M.S., Zimmermann , E.N., 2006. Novel methods improve prediction of species’ distributions from occur-rence data. Ecography, 29: 129–151. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2006.0906-7590.04596.x - F
ick , S.E., Hijmans , R.J., 2017. WorldClim 2: new 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology, 37: 4302–4315. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5086 - G
uisan , A., Thuiller , W., 2005. Predicting species distribution: offering more than simple habitat models. Ecology Letters, 8: 993–1009. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2005.00792.x - G
upta , D., Krishnamurthy , R., 2023. Spatial density patterns of herbivore response to seasonal dynamics in the tropical deciduous forest of central India. Biotropica, 55: 430–443. https://doi.org/10.1111/btp.13197 - H
adinejad , M., Naghipour , A.A., Ebrahimi , A., Naimi , B., 2025. Modeling the effect of climate change on the distribution of plant communities in Zayandeh-Rud basin, Iran. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 197: 479–503. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-13861-6 - H
ai , Y., Han , T., Wang , Y., Li , R., Yang , Y., Wen , Z., Zheng , H., 2025. Quantifying the impact of precipitation fluctuations on forest growth in Northeast China. Frontiers in Plant Science, 16: 1570005. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2025.1570005 - H
enry , A., Sher , A.A., Primack , R.B., 2024. Extinction, Causes of. In Scheiner, SM. (ed.). Encyclopedia of bio-diversity. Third edition. Oxford: Academic Press, p. 284–299. - I
chie , T., Igarashi , S., Tanimoto , T., Inoue , Y., Mohizah , M., Kenzo , T., 2023. Ecophysiological responses of seedlings of six dipterocarp species to short-term drought in Borneo. Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, 6: 1112852. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2023.1112852 - K
afy , A.A., Saha , M., Fattah , M.A., Rahman , M.T., Duti , B.M., Rahaman , Z.A., Bakshi , A., Kalaivani , S., Nafiz Rahaman , S., Sattar , G.S., 2023. Integrating forest cover change and carbon storage dynamics: leveraging Google Earth Engine and InVEST model to inform conservation in hilly regions. Ecological Indicators, 152: 110374. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2023.110374 - K
ass , J.M., Anderson , R.P., Espinosa -Lucas , A., Juárez -Jaimes , V., Martínez -Salas , E., Botello F., Tavera G., Flores -Martínez , J.J., Sánchez -Cordero , V., 2020. Biotic predictors with phenological information improve range estimates for migrating monarch butterflies in Mexico. Ecography, 43: 341–352. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.04886 - K
ass , J.M., Muscarella , R., Galante , P.J., Bohl , C.L., Pinilla -Buitrago , G.E., Boria , R.A., Soley -Guardia M., Anderson R.P., 2021. ENMeval 2.0: redesigned for customizable and reproducible modeling of species’ niches and distributions. Methods in Ecology and Evolution, 12: 1602–1608. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210X.13628 - K
umar , G., Kumar , A., Saikia , P., 2026. Impacts of precipitation shifts and warming trends in tropical deciduous forests of Central India. Anthropocene, 53: 100516. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100516 - L
ai , H.R., Hill , T., Stivanello , S., Chapman , H.M., 2025. Changes in quantity and timing of foliar and reproductive phenology of tropical dry-forest trees under a warming and drying climate. Journal of Ecology, 113: 1560–1572. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.70044 - L
iu , C., Newell , G., White , M., Machunter , J., 2025. Improving the estimation of the Boyce index using statistical smoothing methods for evaluating species distribution models with presence-only data. Ecography, 2025: e07218. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.07218 - L
oidi , J., Navarro -Sánchez , G., Vynokurov , D., 2022. Climatic definitions of the world’s terrestrial biomes. Vegetation Classification and Survey, 3: 231–271. https://doi.org/10.3897/vcs.86102 - L
una -Aranguré , C., Estrada , F., Velasco , J.A., Calderón -Bustamante , O., Gonzalez -Salazar , C., 2025. Environmental exposure of terrestrial biomes to global climate change: an n-dimensional approach. Ecosphere, 16: 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.70262 - L
ung , N.N., Quat , N.X., Lien , A., Que , A., Van Con , A., Ky , A., Cam , L.V., 2011. Final report on forest ecological stratification in Vietnam. Report no. 136. Hanoi, Vietnam: UNREDD Program Vietnam. 130 p. - M
oncrieff , G.R., Bond , W.J., Higgins , S.I., 2016a. Revising the biome concept for understanding and predicting global change impacts. Journal of Biogeography, 43: 863–873. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12701 - M
oncrieff , G.R., Scheiter , S., Langan , L., Trabucco , A., Higgins , S.I., 2016b. The future distribution of the savannah biome: model-based and biogeographic contingency. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 371: 20150311. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2015.0311 - M
urali , K.S., Sukumar , R., 1993. Leaf flushing phenology and herbivory in a tropical dry deciduous forest, southern India. Oecologia, 94: 114–119. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00317311 - N
guyen , T.T., Baker , P.J., 2016. Structure and composition of deciduous dipterocarp forest in Central Vietnam: patterns of species dominance and regeneration failure. Plant Ecology and Diversity, 9: 589–601. - O
cón , J.P., Ibanez , T., Franklin , J., Pau , S., Keppel , G., Rivas -Torres , G., Shin , M.E., Gillespie , T.W., 2021. Global tropical dry forest extent and cover: a comparative study of bioclimatic definitions using two climatic data sets. PLOS ONE, 16: e0252063. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0252063 - O
uédraogo , D.Y., Fayolle , A., Gourlet -Fleury , S., Mortier , F., Freycon , V., Fauvet , N., Rabaud , S., Cornu , G., Bénédet , F., Gillet , J.F., 2016. The determinants of tropical forest deciduousness: disentangling the effects of rainfall and geology in central Africa. Journal of Ecology, 104: 924–935. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12589 - P
ham , M.-P., Vu , D.D., Nguyen , T.T., 2024a. Predictive ecological niche model for Cinnamomum parthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn.(Lauraceae) from Last Glacial Maximum to future in Vietnam. Biodiversity Data Journal, 12: e122325. https://doi.org/10.3897/BDJ.12.e122325 - P
ham , M.-P., Hoang , T.T.T., Pham , T.T., Vu , D.D., 2025. Global range extension of bioclimatic zone of Bruguiera hainesii CG Rogers 1919 (Rhizophoraceae). One Ecosystem, 10: e142064. https://doi.org/10.3897/oneeco.10.e142064 - P
ham , T.T., Phung , T.T., Ta , H.N.T., Van Phan , D., Nguyen , H.H., 2024b. Predicting the potential distribution of Pinus cernua L. K. Phan ex Aver., K.S. Nguyen and T.H. Nguyen, a critically endangered conifer species. Indonesian Journal of Forestry Research, 11: 229–242. https://doi.org/10.59465/ijfr.2024.11.2.229-242 - P
hillips , S.J., Anderson , R.P., Dudík , M., Schapire , R.E., Blair , M.E., 2017. Opening the black box: an open- source release of Maxent. Ecography, 40: 887–893. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.03049 - R C
ore Team , 2025. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. R Foundation for Statistical Computing, Vienna, Austria. http://www.R-project.org - R
adosavljevic , A., Anderson , R.P., 2014. Making better Maxent models of species distributions: complexity, over-fitting and evaluation. Journal of Biogeography, 41: 629–643. https://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12227 - R
aney , P.A., Leopold , D.J., 2018. Fantastic wetlands and where to find them: modeling rich fen distribution in New York State with Maxent. Wetlands, 38: 81–93. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-017-0958-5 - R
atnam , J., Chengappa , S., Machado , S.J., Nataraj , N., Osuri , A.M., Sankaran , M., 2019. Functional traits of trees from dry deciduous “forests” of southern India suggest seasonal drought and fire are important drivers. Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, 7: 1–6. http://dx.doi.org/10.3389/fevo.2019.00008 - R
iggio J., Baillie , J.E.M., Brumby , S., Ellis , E., Kennedy , C.M., Oakleaf , J.R., Tait , A., Tepe , T., Theobald , D.M., Venter , O., Watson , J.E.M., Jacobson , A.P., 2020. Global human influence maps reveal clear opportunities in conserving Earth’s remaining intact terrestrial ecosystems. Global Change Biology, 26: 4344–4356. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15109 - R
oberts , D.R., Bahn , V., Ciuti , S., Boyce , M.S., Elith , J., Guillera -Arroita , G., Hauenstein , S., Lahoz -Monfort , J.J., Schröder , B., Thuiller , W., Warton , D.I., Wintle , B.A., Hartig , F., Dormann , C.F., 2017. Cross-validation strategies for data with temporal, spatial, hierarchical, or phylogenetic structure. Ecography, 40: 913–929. https://doi.org/10.1111/ecog.02881 - S
afdar , S., Younes , I., Ahmad , A., Sastry , S.,2025. A comprehensive review of spatial distribution modeling of plant species in mountainous environments: implications for biodiversity conservation and climate change assessment. Kuwait Journal of Science, 52: 100337. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.kjs.2024.100337 - S
inha , P.G., 2022. Chapter 55: Effect of climate change on tropical dry forests. In Research anthology on environmental and societal impacts of climate change. Vol. 2. IGI Global Scientific Publishing, p. 1132–1149. - S
oe , T.M., Okrah , A., Oo , K.T., Kamukama . E.G., Zhang , F., 2025. CMIP6 model performance in simulating precipitation and its extreme characteristics across Southeast Asia. Climate Dynamics, 63: 441. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-025-07938-8 - S
rivastava , V., Lafond , V., Griess , V.C., 2019. Species distribution models (SDM): applications, benefits and challenges in invasive species management. CABI Reviews, p. 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1079/PAVSNNR201914020 - S
uzuki , K., Tsuyama , I., Tungalag , R., Narantsetseg , A., Tsendeekhuu , T., Shinoda , M., Yamanaka N., Kamijo , T., 2024. Projected distributions of Mongolian rangeland vegetation under future climate conditions. Journal of Plant Ecology, 17: rtae028. https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtae028 - T
ran , A.T., Nguyen , K.A., Liou , Y.A., Le , M.H., Vu , V.T., Nguyen , D.D., 2021. Classification and observed seasonal phenology of broadleaf deciduous forests in a tropical region by using multitemporal Sentinel-1A and Land-sat 8 data. Forests, 12: 235. https://doi.org/10.3390/f12020235 - T
uan , N.T., Gliottone , I., Pham , M.P., 2021a. Current and future predicting habitat suitability map of Cunninghamia konishii Hayata using MaxEnt model under climate change in Northern Vietnam. European Journal of Ecology, 7: 1–17. https://doi.org/10.17161/eurojecol.v7i2.15079 - T
uan , N.T., Bao , T.Q., Rodríguez -Hernández , D.I., Gliottone I., 2021b. Tree diversity and species composition of tropical dry forests in Vietnam’s Central Highlands Region. Forestry Studies, 75: 80–103. https://doi.org/10.2478/fsmu-2021-0013 - T
umaneng , M.R., Tumaneng , R., Tiburan Jr , C., 2019. Modeling species distribution of Shorea guiso (blanco) blume and Parashorea malaanonan (blanco) merr in mount Makiling forest reserve using MaxEnt. The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences, XLII-4/W19, 2019: 441–448. https://doi.org/10.5194/isprs-archives-XLII-4-W19-441-2019 - V
an Bloem , S., Lugo , A.E., Murphy , P.G., 2004. Regional forest types – tropical dry forests. In Burley, J. (ed.) Encyclopedia of forest sciences. Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier, p. 1767–1775. - V
an Quy , N., Rodríguez -Hernández , D.I., Tuan , N.T., 2025. Projected climate-induced range shifts of Dipterocarpaceae in Vietnam’s Southeast and Central Highlands. Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 197: 541. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-025-14308-8 - V
an Der Wal , J., Shoo , L.P., Graham , C., Williams , S.E., 2009. Selecting pseudo-absence data for presence-only distribution modeling: how far should you stray from what you know? Ecological Modelling, 220: 589–594. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2008.11.010 - V
elasco , J.A., González -Salazar , C., 2019. Akaike information criterion should not be a “test” of geographical prediction accuracy in ecological niche modelling. Ecological Informatics, 51: 25–32. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2019.02.005 - V
ico , G., Dralle , D., Feng , X., Thompson , S., Manzoni , S., 2017. How competitive is drought deciduousness in tropical forests? A combined eco-hydrological and eco-evolutionary approach. Environmental Research Letters, 12: 065006. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa6f1b - W
ang , F., Yuan , X., Sun , Y., Liu , Y., 2024. Species distribution modeling based on MaxEnt to inform biodiversity conservation in the Central Urban Area of Chongqing Municipality. Ecological Indicators, 158: 111491. - X
ie , Y., Wang , X., Silander , J.A., Jr ., 2015. Deciduous forest responses to temperature, precipitation, and drought imply complex climate change impacts. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112: 13585–13590. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1509991112 - Y
an , Y.-M., Fan , Z.-X., Fu , P.-L., Zhang , Z.-Y., 2025. Drought tolerance traits explain differential stem growth rates of evergreen and deciduous trees in a tropical karst forest. Plant Diversity, 47: 454–465. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pld.2024.08.001 - Z
hang , X., Wang , X., Zohner , C.M., Peñuelas , J., Li , Y., Wu , X., Zhang , Y., Liu , H., Shen , P., Jia , X., Liu , W., Tian , D., Pradhan , P., Fandohan , A.B., Peng , D., Wu , C., 2025. Declining precipitation frequency may drive earlier leaf senescence by intensifying drought stress and enhancing drought acclimation. Nature Communications, 16: 910. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-56159-4
Language: English
Page range: 88 - 107
Submitted on: Jan 28, 2026
Accepted on: May 4, 2026
Published on: May 31, 2026
Published by: Slovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Forest Ecology
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 3 issues per year
Related subjects:
© 2026 Nguyen Thanh Tuan, Nguyen Trong Phu, Nguyen Hong Hai, Diego I. Rodríguez-Hernández, Mukti Ram Subedi, published by Slovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Forest Ecology
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.