Climate change impacts on the distribution of deciduous forests in the Central Highlands of Vietnam

The spatial distribution of deciduous forests (DF) in Vietnam is relatively restricted. However, these ecosystems play a pivotal role in overall ecosystem structure and function. This study aimed to assess the environmental drivers governing the distribution of DF in Vietnam under climate change scenarios. Our results show that DF currently occupies a relatively narrow climatic niche spanning approximately 10,496.49 km², predominantly in the Central Highlands. Precipitation of the driest month, temperature seasonality, and elevation emerged as the dominant predictors of DF distribution. Projected climatic niche contraction for the period 2081–2100 ranged from 7.6% (SSP245) to 33.2% of the current climatically suitable area (SSP585). This decline is primarily associated with increased precipitation during the coldest quarter and greater temperature variability. These findings underscore the need for targeted and proactive conservation strategies for DF in the Central Highlands of Vietnam, where the already limited suitable habitats are particularly susceptible to climate-driven range contractions.