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Prediction of the Freight Train Energy Consumption With the Time Series Models Cover

Prediction of the Freight Train Energy Consumption With the Time Series Models

Open Access
|Jul 2025

Abstract

As the backbone of environmentally sustainable transport, rail transport is one of the most preferred modes since it emits three times less CO2 and particulates per ton-mile than road transport. Besides these ecological benefits, rail transport is the most cost-effective. The global energy crisis creates significant problems and challenges for rail companies when planning transportation activity costs. Companies must carefully consider energy spending and ways to decrease it. In this paper, the authors considered the problem of predicting freight train energy consumption to help companies plan their budgets. For that purpose, the authors applied three time series methods: the moving average, the weighted moving average, and the exponential smoothing method. These methods were applied to actual data collected in the Republic of Serbia. The results showed that the exponential smoothing method performs better than the other two approaches. Nevertheless, there is still room for improvement in the presented approaches, such as fine-tuning the parameters used and comparing them to other relevant techniques used for the forecast.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ethemes-2024-0001 | Journal eISSN: 2217-3668 | Journal ISSN: 0353-8648
Language: English
Page range: 1 - 17
Submitted on: Jan 2, 2024
Accepted on: Jan 30, 2024
Published on: Jul 5, 2025
Published by: University of Niš, Faculty of Economics
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2025 Predrag Grozdanović, Miloš Nikolić, Milica Šelmić, Dragana Macura, published by University of Niš, Faculty of Economics
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.