Understanding the sociodemographic component of urban shrinkage exemplified by mono-industrial towns in Latvia

This study examined the demographic and socioeconomic transformations of Latvia’s mono-industrial towns, focusing on the interplay between geographic location, demographic structure, and socioeconomic change in shaping their resilience and decline. This exploratory study aimed to characterise the demographic and socioeconomic patterns associated with these divergent trajectories over the past two decades, including depopulation, economic restructuring, and population ageing, rather than establishing the causal mechanisms behind them. This study conducted an analysis and comparison of 13 mono-industrial towns, categorising them based on a range of demographic and socioeconomic variables. We employed an exploratory quantitative approach, applying Pearson’s bivariate correlation analysis to census data (2000 and 2021) to examine the associations among population change, ageing, out-migration, and economic inactivity. Given the small number of towns analysed, these associations are interpreted as descriptive rather than causal and are contextualised by the authors’ field knowledge of the settlements. The results reveal regional disparities: towns within the capital city of Riga’s metropolitan region benefit from suburbanisation and retain younger populations, whereas non-metropolitan peripheral mono-industrial towns face compounded disadvantages, including accelerated ageing and severe economic stagnation. The observed trajectories are primarily associated with geographic proximity to the capital and the varying degrees of functional and industrial transformations that these towns have undergone since 1991. This study contributes to the broader discourse on post-socialist urban shrinkage by highlighting the heterogeneous pathways of mono-industrial towns. Furthermore, it informs targeted policy interventions, suggesting that while proximal towns require infrastructure management, peripheral towns may require adaptive social support, and where demographic decline appears entrenched, carefully managed adaptation rather than growth-oriented strategies. These insights are critical for fostering sustainable development in shrinking industrial towns across Central and Eastern Europe.