An Innovative Time Series Approach to Dynamic Population Modeling for Tobacco Harm Reduction Assessment

Age	Never smoker/Never EVP user	Smoker/Never EVP user	Former smoker/Never EVP user	Never smoker/EVP user	Smoker/EVP user	Former smoker/EVP user	Never smoker/Former EVP user	Smoker/Former EVP user	Former smoker/Former EVP user
18–20	NVR; NVR	NVR; NVR	NVR; NVR	NVR; NVR	NVR; NVR	NVR; NVR	NVR; NVR	NVR; NVR	NVR; NVR
21–30	NVR; NVR	CUR; NVR	CUR; NVR	NVR; CUR	CUR; NVR	CUR; NVR	NVR; CUR	CUR; NVR	CUR; NVR
31–40	NVR; NVR	CUR; NVR	CUR; NVR	NVR; CUR	CUR; CUR	CUR; CUR	NVR; CUR	CUR; CUR	CUR; CUR
41–50	NVR; NVR	CUR; NVR	FMR;NVR	NVR; CUR	CUR; CUR	FMR; CUR	NVR; FMR	CUR; FMR	FMR; FMR

[i] Abbreviations used: NVR = never; CUR = current; FMR = former

Observed and projected US adult smoking and vaping prevalence, 2016–2044.

Cumulative difference of mortality rate using different approaches (US market).

Table 2.

Sensitivity analysis of cumulative premature death differences between the baseline scenario and alternative scenarios across varying Excess Relative Risk (ERR) values by 2040.

ERR	5%	10%	20%	50%
Cumulative difference of tobacco-related premature deaths (million)	0.85	0.79	0.68	0.36

[i] Note: Values represent the estimated reduction in cumulative difference of tobacco-related premature deaths compared to the Baseline Scenario (exclusive cigarette use) under different ERRs.

Table 3.

Sensitivity analysis of estimated reduction in relative risk of smoking-attributable diseases under an alternative scenario with EVP Availability in 2040.

Disease	RE = 0.05	RE = 0.1	RE = 0.2	RE = 0.25	RE = 0.5
Lung cancer	23.1%	21.4%	18.0%	16.3%	7.7%
IHD	13.7%	12.6%	10.3%	9.2%	3.5%
Stroke	8.3%	7.7%	6.4%	5.8%	2.6%

[i] Note: Values represent the estimated percentage reduction in relative risk compared to the Baseline Scenario (exclusive cigarette use) under different RE assumptions for EVP use.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/cttr-2026-0014 | Journal eISSN: 2719-9509 (formerly 1612-9237)

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Language: English, French, German

Page range: 197 - 205

Submitted on: Apr 1, 2026

Accepted on: Jun 15, 2026

Published on: Oct 25, 2026

Published by: Beiträge zur Tabakforschung GmbH

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

Electronic vapor products,

harm reduction,

dynamic population model,

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© 2026 Thomas Verron, Mengran Guo, Libby Clarke, Thomas Nahde, Xavier Cahours, published by Beiträge zur Tabakforschung GmbH
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License.

Volume 35 (2026): Issue 3 (August 2026)

An Innovative Time Series Approach to Dynamic Population Modeling for Tobacco Harm Reduction Assessment

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