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Figure 19.
Lifetime smoking initiation probability_
| Male | Female | |
|---|---|---|
| Lifetime initiation rate (2004) | 58.2% | 23.2% |
| Applied annual initiation decay (2004–2100)a | 3.1% | 2.6% |
Transition probabilities (females)_
| User status 12 months ago | n | Current user status (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solus smoker | Solus THP | Dual user | No tobacco | ||
| Solus smoker | 392 | 81.4 (76.7–85.5) | 1.5 (0.4–3.5) | 7.0 (4.5–10.3) | 10.1 (7.0–14.0) |
| Solus THP | |||||
| Never smoker | 8 | — | 82.7 (42.3–98.9) | — | 17.3 (1.1–58.7) |
| Former smoker | 29 | — | 91.1 (74.5–98.4) | — | 8.9 (1.6–25.5) |
| Dual user | 85 | 6.6 (1.9–15.7) | 39.3 (28.0–51.5) | 50.8 (38.8–62.8) | 3.2 (0.5–10.2) |
Definitions of key model variables and units_
| Variable | Description | Units |
|---|---|---|
| YLD | Years lived with disability | People years |
| Disability weight | Health loss associated with disease | Factor |
| Disease duration | Average time diagnosed with disease until either successful treatment or death | Years |
| Disease incidence rate | New disease cases in current year | People/year |
| NS Disease incidence probability | Probability a Never Smoker is newly diagnosed with disease | Probability/year |
| HR | Hazard ratio of disease incidence compared to that of a never smoker | Factor |
| Expected incidence rate | New disease cases in base year (2004) | People/year |
| P | Prevalence of the tobacco usage state | Percentage |
j_cttr-2025-0001_tab_011
| Smoking Only: | Where cigarettes are the only tobacco product available. |
| Harm Reduction: | Where THPs are introduced to the market in 2014. |
| Complete Abstinence: | Where all tobacco product use ceases in 2014. |
Transition probabilities (males)_
| User status 12 months ago | n | Current user status (%) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solus smoker | Solus THP | Dual user | No tobacco | ||
| Solus smoker | 1038 | 82.3 (79.4–85) | 1.0 (0.4–2.3) | 7.6 (5.8–9.8) | 9.0 (7.3–11.1) |
| Solus THP | |||||
| Never smoker | 16 | — | 92.1 (67.6–99.6) | 5.5 (0.1–29.2) | 2.3 (0–24.5) |
| Former smoker | 49 | — | 88.4 (75.0–96.1) | 5.3 (0.7–17.3) | 6.3 (1.2–17.7) |
| Dual user | 320 | 7.0 (4.1–11.1) | 32.8 (27.3–38.8) | 58.8 (52.5–64.8) | 1.4 (0.4–3.4) |
Smoking-related diseases in model_
| Smoking-related diseases |
|---|
| Ischemic heart disease |
| Stroke |
| Tracheal bronchus and lung cancer |
| Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) |
| Esophageal cancer |
| Lower extremity peripheral arterial disease |
Smoking cessation probability_
| Age-group | 20–29 | 30–39 | 40–49 | 50–59 | 60–69 | 70–79 | ≥ 80 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Male cessationa | 2.2% | 3.6% | 3.9% | 4.6% | 6.9% | 9.2% | 9.1% |
| Female cessationa | 5.4% | 3.0% | 3.1% | 4.6% | 6.2% | 9.9% | 8.5% |
Lifetime THP initiation probability_
| THP Initiation | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|
| < Age 20 initiation | 6.2% | 1.2% |
| > Age 20 initiation | 3.5% | 2.5% |
| Lifetime initiation | 9.7% | 3.7% |
Adult tobacco use prevalence_ Japan adult population tobacco use prevalence by smoking and THP use status_
| Japan adult population tobacco use prevalence (2019–2020) | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smoking status | Never | Current | Former | Never | Current | Former | Never | Current | Former |
| THP status | Never | Never | Never | Current | Current | Current | Former | Former | Former |
| NN | CN | FN | NC | CC | FC | NF | CF | FF | |
| All | 64.8% | 11.4% | 17.1% | 0.3% | 3.5% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.4% | 0.3% |
| Male | 44.1% | 17.7% | 27.6% | 0.3% | 5.9% | 3.4% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.4% |
| Female | 84.1% | 5.6% | 7.4% | 0.2% | 1.2% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
Data sources_
| Data sources |
|---|
| Japan´s population |
| Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, Census Division, Statistics Bureau |
| Population estimation (2004) |
| https://www.e-stat.go.jp/stat-search/file-download?statInfId=000000090235&fileKind=0 |
| Birth rate |
| National Institute of Population and Social Security Research |
| Population Projections for Japan (2017): 2016 to 2065, Appendix: Auxiliary Projections 2066 to 2115 (Table 5 and Reference Table 5) |
| http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/top.html |
| Mortality rates |
| The Global Burden of Disease Study |
| Supplementary appendix: Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, Lancet 2020 (Supplementary appendix 2, Table 15, Japan 2017 life table) |
| https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext#supplementaryMaterial |
| Life expectancy |
| The Global Burden of Disease Study |
| Supplementary appendix: Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: A forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, Lancet 2020 (Supplementary appendix 2,Table 15, Japan 2017 life table) |
| https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext#supplementaryMaterial |
| Net migration |
| National Institute of Population and Social Security Research |
| Population Projections for Japan (2017): 2016 to 2065, Appendix: Auxiliary Projections 2066 to 2115 (Figures 9 and 10) |
| http://www.ipss.go.jp/pp-newest/e/ppfj02/top.html |
| Smoking prevalence |
| National Health and Nutrition Survey |
| Part 4: Results of lifestyle-related survey |
| https://www.mhlw.go.jp/english/ |
| Former Smoker Quit Time |
| Estimating the population health impact of introducing a reduced-risk tobacco product into Japan, The effect of differing assumptions, and some comparisons with the U.S. |
| DOI: 10.1016/j.yrtph.2018.10.010 |
| Smoking initiation |
| National Health and Nutrition Survey (2003–2012) |
| https://www.mhlw.go.jp/bunya/kenkou/kenkou_eiyou_chousa.html |
| Smoker relapse |
| Web-based survey on smoking cessation behaviors of current and former smokers in Japan |
| DOI: 10.1185/03007995.2014.938149 |
| Smoking relative risks |
| Population attributable numbers and fractions of deaths due to smoking: A pooled analysis of 180,000 Japanese, Preventive Medicine Volume 52, Issue 1, January 2011, Pages 60–65 |
| DOI: 10.1016/j.ypmed.2010.11.009 |
| Former smoker risk decay |
| Estimating the population health impact of introducing a reduced-risk tobacco product into Japan. The effect of differing assumptions, and some comparisons with the U.S. |
| DOI: 10.1016/j.yrtph.2018.10.010 |
| Disease incidence and prevalence |
| Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 354 diseases and injuries for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2017: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017, Appendix 2 |
| DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32279-7 |
| Smoker disease relative risks |
| Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) Relative Risks |
| http://ghdx.healthdata.org/record/ihme-data/gbd-2019-relative-risks |
| THP risk ratio to smoking |
| Committees on Toxicity of Chemicals in Food, Consumer Products and the Environment (COT, COC and COM) |
| Statement on the toxicological evaluation of novel heat-not-burn tobacco products, 2017 |
| https://cot.food.gov.uk/sites/default/files/heat_not_burn_tobacco_statement.pdf |
Population demographics_ Model projections for the Japan population and mortality rate from 2010 to 2100_
| Demographic projections | Population (millions) in year | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population goups | 2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 | 2060 | 2070 | 2080 | 2090 | 2100 |
| Total | 128 | 125 | 119 | 110 | 101 | 92 | 83 | 76 | 70 | 66 |
| 65+ | 29 | 36 | 36 | 37 | 37 | 34 | 30 | 27 | 25 | 23 |
| 16–65 | 81 | 74 | 69 | 60 | 53 | 48 | 44 | 39 | 36 | 34 |
| Under 16 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | 8 |
| Mortality (millions/year) | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |