Have a personal or library account? Click to login
How do Risk Perceptions Drive Smokers to Completely Switch to a Smoke-Free Tobacco Product (IQOS™)? A Four-Country Cohort Study Cover

How do Risk Perceptions Drive Smokers to Completely Switch to a Smoke-Free Tobacco Product (IQOS™)? A Four-Country Cohort Study

Open Access
|Jun 2023

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

Patterns of TP use at week 48 by country and number of RF and/or RH indications.
Participants of PMI’s open online IQOS™ user consumer cohorts in Japan (N = 6257, ≥ 21 y), Italy (N = 8173, ≥ 19 y), Germany (N = 8474, ≥ 19 y), and Russia (N = 7231, ≥ 19 y) were followed-up between 2016 and 2020 during their first 48 weeks in the cohort.
Abbreviations: CC: manufactured and hand-rolled cigarettes; HTP: heated TP; Other TP use: participants with no TP use in the past 7 days and/or no intention to use TPs in future; PMI: Philip Morris International; RF: perceived reduced formation of harmful chemicals; RH: perceived reduced risk of harm; TP: tobacco product.
Patterns of TP use at week 48 by country and number of RF and/or RH indications. Participants of PMI’s open online IQOS™ user consumer cohorts in Japan (N = 6257, ≥ 21 y), Italy (N = 8173, ≥ 19 y), Germany (N = 8474, ≥ 19 y), and Russia (N = 7231, ≥ 19 y) were followed-up between 2016 and 2020 during their first 48 weeks in the cohort. Abbreviations: CC: manufactured and hand-rolled cigarettes; HTP: heated TP; Other TP use: participants with no TP use in the past 7 days and/or no intention to use TPs in future; PMI: Philip Morris International; RF: perceived reduced formation of harmful chemicals; RH: perceived reduced risk of harm; TP: tobacco product.

Number of RF and/or RH indications and the likelihood of exclusive IQOS™ or HTP use_

Number of RF and/or RH indicationsJapan (N = 6257)Italy (N = 8173)Germany (N = 8474)Russia (N = 7231)
Exclusive HTPExclusive IQOS Exclusive IQOSExclusive IQOSExclusive IQOS
OR (95% CI)OR (95% CI)(n)OR (95% CI)(n)OR (95% CI)(n)OR (95% CI)(n)
0Reference (1.0)Reference (1.0)1552Reference (1.0)5032Reference (1.0)1827Reference (1.0)1887
11.65 (1.44–1.89)1.12 (0.98–1.27) 19041.48 (1.25–1.76)5381.16 (1.03–1.31) 211291.73 (1.54–1.95)1189
2–52.28 (2.08–2.52)1.35 (1.23–1.48)19642.23 (1.98–2.51)12601.59 (1.47–1.72)26392.28 (2.08–2.49)2342
6–103.38 (2.94–3.89)1.47 (1.31–1.66)11382.55 (2.22–2.93)9912.36 (2.14–2.61)18582.74 (2.42–3.10)1266
11–134.87 (4.00–5.94)1.89 (1.62–2.21)6993.35 (2.61–4.29)3523.48 (3.00–4.03)10213.05 (2.51–3.71)547

Baseline participant characteristics of IQOS™ user consumer cohort samples in Japan, Italy, Germany, and Russia_

Number (n) and percentage (% [95% CI]) or mean (SD [range])
Japan (N = 6257)Italy (N = 8173)Germany (N = 8474)Russia (N = 7231)P
Sex (n [%])
  Male4784 (76%)5651 (69%)4969 (59%)4820 (67%)< 0.0001
  Female1473 (24%)2522 (31%)3505 (41%)2411 (33%)
Age (n [%])
  LAS–29284 (5%)1382 (17%)1191 (14%)1978 (27%)< 0.0001
  30–391251 (20%)2275 (28%)2180 (26%)3055 (42%)
  40–492268 (36%)2493 (31%)2052 (24%)1528 (21%)
  50+2454 (39%)2023 (25%)3051 (36%)670 (9%)
  Mean (SD [range])46.6 (9.9 [21–85])42.7 (11.5 [19–85])43.8 (12.2 [19–85])36.0 (9.5 [19–85])< 0.0001
Education1 (n [%])
  Elementary School/Junior High School (1)245 (4%)683 (9%)2409 (31%)6 (0.1%)< 0.0001
  High School/Old Junior High School (2)2161 (37%)3344 (42%)1202 (16%)340 (5%)
  Junior College/Higher Professional School (3)1138 (19%)1376 (17%)857 (11%)1077 (15%)
  College/University/Graduate School (4)2235 (38%)2539 (32%)2338 (30%)5538 (79%)
  None of these (5)73 (1%)0 (0.0%)960 (12%)32 (0.5%)
Living Situation (n [%])
  Living at home with parents898 (15%)1116 (14%)304 (4%)529 (8%)< 0.0001
  Living with friends/housemates91 (2%)159 (2%)302 (4%)220 (3%)
  Living by yourself1019 (17%)1043 (14%)1503 (19%)988 (15%)
  Living with partner/spouse (no child)979 (17%)1867 (24%)2609 (33%)1899 (30%)
  Single parent living with children192 (3%)267 (3%)267 (3%)166 (3%)
  Family with children living at home2328 (39%)2741 (36%)2183 (28%)1735 (27%)
  Empty nesters (children have left home)272 (5%)398 (5%)785 (10%)564 (9%)
  Others117 (2%)109 (32%)175 (2%)286 (4%)
Employment status2 (n [%])
  Housewife/Homemaker294 (5%)N/A174 (2%)224 (3%)< 0.0001
  Student/Apprentice48 (1%)N/A533 (6%)266 (4%)
  Retired/Pensioner98 (2%)N/A347 (4%)84 (1%)
  Unemployed163 (3%)N/A79 (1%)297 (4%)
  In employment/Self-employed5017 (80%)N/A6123 (72%)6360 (88%)
  Other income3 (n [%])637 (10%)N/A1218 (14%)0 (0.0%)
    (1)278 (7%)N/A240 (5%)868 (19%)N/A4
    (2)659 (17%)N/A982 (19%)825 (18%)
    (3)852 (22%)N/A1245 (25%)701 (15%)
    (4)710 (18%)N/A1163 (23%)750 (16%)
    (5)492 (13%)N/A598 (12%)428 (9%)
    (6)512 (13%)N/A834 (16%)301 (6%)
    (7)430 (11%)N/A795 (17%)
RF and/or RH mentioned during follow-up (n [%])
    No1,552 (24.8%)5,032 (61.6%)51,827 (21.6%)1,887 (26.1%)< 0.0001
    Yes4705 (75.2%)3141 (38.4%)6647 (78.4%)5344 (73.9%)
Stable exclusive IQOS at week 48 (n [%])
    No2978 (47.6%)3358 (41.1%)3406 (40.2%)2605 (36.0%)< 0.0001
    Yes3279 (52.4%)4815 (58.9%)5068 (59.8%)4626 (64.0%)

Number of RF vs_ RH indications and the likelihood of exclusive IQOS™ use in Japan_

Number of RF and/or RH indicationsRF indications (n = 4170)RH indications (n = 3894)
OR (95% CI)(n)OR (95% CI)(n)
0Reference (1.0)1391Reference (1.0)1471
11.15 (1.02–1.30) 16931.34 (1.18–1.51)667
2–51.41 (1.28–1.54)12301.41 (1.27–1.55)988
6–101.57 (1.37–1.79)6131.47 (1.28–1.68)556
11–131.81 (1.46–2.24)2432.92 (2.29–3.72)212

RF and/or RH indications, risk of stable non-exclusive IQOS™ use, percentage of stable exclusive IQOS™ users, and time to stable exclusive IQOS™ use_

CountryIndicating vs. not indicating RF and/or RH as a reason for using IQOS during 48 weeks of follow-up
Risk 1 of becoming a stable non-exclusive IQOS userPercentage of stable exclusive IQOS users 2 until week 48Mean number of weeks to stable exclusive IQOS use
Unadjusted analysisAdjusted analysis 3Unadjusted analysisUnadjusted analysis
HR (95% CI)PHR (95% CI)PIndicating % (95% CI)Not indicating % (95% CI)PIndicating mean (95% CI)Not indicating mean (95% CI)P
Japan0.74< 0.00010.74< 0.000161%46%< 0.0528.532.2< 0.05
(N = 4557)(0.69–0.79)(0.69–0.80)(59%–63%)(43%–50%)(27.5–29.0)(31.1–33.4)
Italy0.80< 0.00010.80< 0.000170%55%< 0.0520.126.9< 0.05
(N = 6945)(0.76–0.84)(0.76–0.84)(68%–73%)(53%–56%)(18.9–21.2)(25.2–27.6)
Germany0.82< 0.00010.83< 0.000169%47%< 0.0522.530.0< 0.05
(N = 6437)(0.77–0.88)(0.76–0.90)(76%–70%)(44%–50%)(21.8–23.2)(28.8–31.2)
Russia0.85< 0.00010.84< 0.000170%62%< 0.0522.725.3< 0.05
(N = 5866)(0.81–0.91)(0.78–0.90)(68%–71%)(59%–64%)(22.0–23.5)(24.2–26.4)

RF and RH statements that could be indicated by participants as reasons for using IQOS™ by country 1_

JapanTwo reasons referred to RF (the top 2) and two reasons to RH (the bottom 2)
The tobacco vapor of IQOS has significantly less harmful chemicals than the smoke of conventional cigarettes, but using IOQS is not risk free.
Has a significantly lower level of harmful chemicals in its vapor than conventional cigarettes.
Because switching completely to IQOS is likely to present less risk of harm than continuing to smoke cigarettes (this does not mean IQOS is risk-free).
Because switching completely to IQOS is a better choice than continuing to smoke 1-mg cigarettes (this does not mean IQOS is risk-free).
Italy and RussiaOne reason referred to RF
The levels of harmful chemicals in IQOS vapor are significantly reduced compared to a standard cigarette smoke.
GermanyOne reason referred to RF
IQOS contains 90% less harmful chemicals: IQOS reduces the concentration of a representative set of chemicals which are identified as being harmful in tobacco smoke on average by 90% in comparison to a cigarette.
Language: English
Page range: 50 - 64
Submitted on: Dec 13, 2022
Accepted on: Apr 6, 2023
Published on: Jun 13, 2023
Published by: Institut für Tabakforschung GmbH
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2023 Karina Fischer, Steve Roulet, Andreea Surducan, Mario Colombo, Pierpaolo Magnani, published by Institut für Tabakforschung GmbH
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 License.