Mapping the Policy Priorities of European Union Citizens: Evidence from the NextGeneration EU Programme

Label	Description	Cluster	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min.	Max.
MFX_SHEALTH	Standardised marginal effect of the HEALTH variable	1	−0.25	0.86	−1.34	1.32
MFX_SHEALTH	Standardised marginal effect of the HEALTH variable	2	0.25	1.11	−1.16	2.61
MFX_SYET	Standardised marginal effect of the YET variable	1	0.71	0.70	0.08	2.04
MFX_SYET	Standardised marginal effect of the YET variable	2	−0.71	0.70	−1.33	0.74
MFX_SIMP_WC	Standardized marginal effect of the IMP_WC variable	1	−0.59	0.43	−1.09	0.26
MFX_SIMP_WC	Standardized marginal effect of the IMP_WC variable	2	0.59	1.07	−1.16	2.06

Marginal effects from multilevel probit models with country-level variables

	Change in the P(HEALTH = 1)		Change in the P(YET = 1)		Change in the P(IMP_WC = 1)
	dy/dx	Std. Err.	dy/dx	Std. Err.	dy/dx	Std. Err.
AGE	0.00157**	(0.0007)	−0.00600***	(0.0066)	0.00255***	(0.0006)
AGE_SQ	2.61e-06	(6.75e-06)	0.00004***	(6.36e-06)	−0.00003***	(5.56e-06)
MEN	−0.05714***	(0.0058)	−0.01609***	(0.0044)	0.00227	(0.0036)
BACHELOR	−0.02012	(0.0077)	0.00721	(0.0068)	−0.00533	(0.0057)
MASTER	−0.05906***	(0.0090)	0.01896***	(0.0069)	−0.02566***	(0.0064)
DOCTORAL	−0.09634***	(0.0301)	0.03839*	(0.0208)	−0.02915	(0.0210)
UNEMPLOYED	0.01820	(0.0112)	−0.00162	(0.0105)	0.02784***	(0.00785)
RURAL	−0.00263	(0.0051)	−0.00044	(0.0048)	−0.01697***	(0.0040)
WORKING_CLASS	0.00841	(0.0147)	−0.01408	(0.0128)	0.01060	(0.0109)
MIDDLE_CLASS	−0.00624	(0.0142)	−0.01459	(0.0120)	−0.01639	(0.01049)
LEFT	−0.00597	(0.0061)	−0.00357	(0.0056)	0.00151	(0.0046)
CENTRE	−0.00008	(0.0055)	0.00468	(0.0051)	0.00683	(0.0042)
WELFARE_STATE	−0.00068	(0.0174)	0.00358	(0.0082)	0.00257	(0.0060)
LABOUR_MARKET	0.00364	(0.0027)	−0.00090	(0.0012)	0.00092	(0.0009)
GDP_GROWTH	0.00150	(0.0058)	−0.00135	(0.0027)	−0.00393*	(0.0020)
Observations	24,846

Citizen perceptions and preferences on the allocation of NGEU funds

Category	Share of respondents (%)		Gap in answers (percentage points)
Category	On which of the following areas do you think the recovery plan NGEU is currently spent? Firstly?	On which of the following areas would you like the recovery plan NGEU to be spent in priority? Firstly?	Gap in answers (percentage points)
Health	6.5%	17.2%	−10.7
Youth education and training	6.0%	13.4%	−7.4
Improvement of working conditions of EU citizens	4.4%	9.4%	−5.0
Agriculture and rural development	4.9%	7.1%	−2.2
Scientific research and development	4.7%	5.8%	−1.1
Support for SMEs	4.0%	5.1%	−1.1
Culture and media	1.4%	1.2%	0.2
Transport	1.8%	1.5%	0.3
Climate change and environmental protection	14.3%	13.8%	0.5
Industry	4.3%	3.3%	1.0
Energy	9.2%	6.7%	2.5
Public administration	4.0%	1.4%	2.6
Digitalisation of economy and society	6.2%	2.9%	3.3
Defence and security	11.4%	7.1%	4.3
Other	0.8%	0.3%	0.5
None	1.4%	0.4%	1.0
Do not know	14.7%	3.4%	11.3
Total	100%	100%	–

Independent variables

Label	Values	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min.	Max.
AGE	Respondent’s age.	51.13	18.49	15	98
AGE_SQ	AGE*AGE	2,956.20	1,894.09	225	9,604
BACHELOR	1 if the respondent’s highest level of education attained is a bachelor’s degree and 0 otherwise.	0.12	0.33	0	1
CENTRE	1 if respondent places themselves at 5 or 6 on a 1–10 political scale (left-wing) and 0 otherwise.	0.36	0.48	0	1
DOCTORAL	1 if the respondent’s highest level of education attained is a doctoral degree and 0 otherwise.	0.01	0.10	0	1
LEFT	1 if respondent places themselves between 1 and 4 on a 1–10 political scale (left-wing) and 0 otherwise.	0.27	0.44	0	1
MASTER	1 if the respondent’s highest level of education attained is a master’s degree and 0 otherwise.	0.12	0.32	0	1
MEN	1 if male and 0 otherwise.	0.47	0.50	0	1
MIDDLE_CLASS	1 if the respondent self-identifies as belonging to the middle class and 0 otherwise.	0.73	0.44	0	1
RURAL	1 if living in rural areas and 0 otherwise	0.34	0.47	0	1
UNEMPLOYED	1 if unemployed and 0 otherwise	0.04	0.20	0	1
WORKING_CLASS	1 if the respondent self-identifies as belonging to the working class and 0 otherwise.	0.23	0.42	0	1

Country marginal effects from the probit models

	Change in the P(HEALTH = 1)		Change in the P(YET = 1)		Change in the P(IMP_WC = 1)
	dy/dx	Std. Err.	dy/dx	Std. Err.	dy/dx	Std. Err.
AUSTRIA	0.02868	(0.0633)	−0.03421***	(0.0088)	0.02988***	(0.0069)
BELGIUM	0.13884***	(0.0150)	−0.06261***	(0.0066)	0.02753***	(0.0075)
BULGARIA	0.07920***	(0.0124)	−0.08321***	(0.0063)	0.13710***	(0.0135)
CZECH REPUBLIC	0.00816	(0.00845)	−0.08609***	(0.0053)	0.03910***	(0.0083)
DENMARK	0.06652***	(0.0123)	−0.09310***	(0.0045)	−0.01902***	(0.0041)
ESTONIA	0.05333***	(0.0108)	−0.06540***	(0.0081)	0.01531**	(0.0074)
FINLAND	0.06270***	(0.0114)	−0.02627***	(0.0096)	−0.01544***	(0.0046)
FRANCE	0.24900***	(0.0184)	−0.05514***	(0.0075)	−0.00904*	(0.0048)
GREECE	0.38746***	(0.0204)	−0.06940***	(0.0065)	0.05467***	(0.0097)
HUNGARY	0.13421***	(0.0153)	−0.08885***	(0.0050)	0.08052***	(0.0091)
IRELAND	0.30684***	(0.0186)	−0.06393***	(0.00784)	0.00336	(0.0059)
ITALY	0.05406***	(0.0132)	−0.05231***	(0.00646)	0.11155***	(0.0111)
LATVIA	0.25199***	(0.0170)	−0.09149***	(0.0050)	0.00512	(0.0065)
LITHUANIA	0.11851***	(0.0133)	−0.05528***	(0.0081)	0.02451***	(0.0094)
LUXEMBOURG	0.12815***	(0.0143)	−0.06297***	(0.0072)	−0.01088**	(0.0050)
MALTA	0.33234***	(0.0199)	−0.04030***	(0.0089)	0.00141	(0.0061)
NETHERLANDS	0.04900***	(0.0110)	−0.03940***	(0.0099)	0.00015	(0.0074)
POLAND	0.20085***	(0.0173)	−0.09289***	(0.0047)	0.01627***	(0.0063)
PORTUGAL	0.50143***	(0.0229)	−0.09348***	(0.0044)	0.13199***	(0.0118)
ROMANIA	0.07977***	(0.0126)	−0.06532***	(0.0066)	0.04979***	(0.0077)
SLOVAKIA	0.14772***	(0.0147)	−0.08909***	(0.0054)	0.04506***	(0.0080)
SLOVENIA	0.21341***	(0.0172)	−0.07518***	(0.0068)	0.06226***	(0.0100)
SPAIN	0.26496***	(0.0187)	−0.05951***	(0.0073)	0.12367***	(0.0106)
SWEDEN	−0.01552**	(0.0062)	−0.06333***	(0.0068)	−0.01304**	(0.0051)
Observations	24,846

Independent country-level variables

Label	Values and source	Mean	Std. Dev.	Min.	Max.
WELFARE_STATE	Expenditure on social protection benefits as percentage of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2023, EUROSTAT.	25.51	1.00	24.40	26.70
LABOUR_MARKET	Youth unemployment in 2022, EUROSTAT.	13.78	7.32	4.90	36.80
GDP_GROWTH	GDP growth rate in 2020 (impact of COVID-19 pandemic), World Bank.	−4.01	3.51	−10.90	7.20

Interclass correlation coefficients

	Policy domain	ICC (country level)	95% confidence interval
Without country-level variables	HEALTH	0.114	[0.069; 0.183]
	YET	0.032	[0.018; 0.056]
	IMP_WC	0.044	[0.025; 0.076]
With country-level variables	HEALTH	0.106	[0.063; 0.171]
	YET	0.032	[0.030; 0.009]
	IMP_WC	0.030	[0.017; 0.054]

Marginal effects from multilevel probit models without country-level variables

	Change in the P(HEALTH = 1)		Change in the P(YET = 1)		Change in the P(IMP_WC = 1)
	dy/dx	Std. Err.	dy/dx	Std. Err.	dy/dx	Std. Err.
AGE	0.00156**	(0.0007)	−0.00601***	(0.0066)	0.00252***	(0.0006)
AGE_SQ	2.64e-06	(6.73e-06)	0.00004***	(6.37e-06)	−0.00003***	(5.61e-06)
MEN	−0.05695***	(0.0058)	−0.01610***	(0.0044)	0.00228	(0.0035)
BACHELOR	−0.02002	(0.0076)	0.00710	(0.0068)	−0.00546	(0.0057)
MASTER	−0.05897***	(0.0091)	0.01898***	(0.0069)	−0.02578***	(0.0065)
DOCTORAL	−0.09602***	(0.0300)	0.03830*	(0.0208)	−0.02899	(0.0209)
UNEMPLOYED	0.01816	(0.0112)	0.01935*	(0.0077)	0.02796***	(0.00786)
RURAL	−0.00269	(0.0050)	−0.00045	(0.0048)	−0.01709***	(0.0040)
WORKING_CLASS	0.00844	(0.0147)	−0.01412	(0.0128)	0.01064	(0.0108)
MIDDLE_CLASS	−0.00615	(0.0142)	−0.01464	(0.0120)	−0.01601	(0.01044)
LEFT	−0.02878**	(0.0115)	0.00355	(0.0056)	0.00163	(0.0046)
CENTRE	−0.00013	(0.0055)	0.00469	(0.0051)	0.00659	(0.0042)
Observations	24,846

Marginal effects from the probit models with individual-level predictors

	Change in the P(HEALTH = 1)		Change in the P(YET = 1)		Change in the P(IMP_WC = 1)
	dy/dx	Std. Err.	dy/dx	Std. Err.	dy/dx	Std. Err.
AGE	0.00226***	(0.0006)	−0.00727***	(0.0013)	0.00270***	(0.0008)
AGE_SQ	−7.20e-06	(6.86e-06)	0.00006***	(0.0000)	−0.00003***	(7.00e-06)
MEN	−0.04601***	(0.0117)	−0.02125**	(0.0103)	−0.00187	(0.0044)
BACHELOR	0.00874	(0.0224)	0.00771	(0.0103)	−0.00946	(0.0094)
MASTER	−0.06391***	(0.0220)	0.01723	(0.0122)	−0.04439***	(0.00710)
DOCTORAL	−0.08722***	(0.0307)	0.01077	(0.0351)	−0.03209	(0.0270)
UNEMPLOYED	0.01121	(0.0138)	0.02413*	(0.0142)	0.04216***	(0.0129)
RURAL	0.02078	(0.0175)	−0.02102**	(0.0072)	−0.02111**	(0.0107)
WORKING_CLASS	0.04181*	(0.0216)	−0.02422	(0.0249)	−0.00400	(0.0265)
MIDDLE_CLASS	−0.01159	(0.0244)	−0.01741	(0.0347)	−0.03300	(0.0235)
LEFT	−0.03817**	(0.0152)	0.01738**	(0.0081)	−0.00186	(0.0118)
CENTRE	−0.01814	(0.0164)	0.02166**	(0.0107)	−0.01297	(0.0148)
Observations	24,846

References

Authors

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Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2026-0006 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001

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Language: English

Page range: 100 - 118

Submitted on: Nov 25, 2025

Accepted on: Mar 25, 2026

Published on: May 23, 2026

Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

Keywords:

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Political economics,

Economic theory, systems and structures,

Microeconomics,

Macroeconomics,

Economic policy

© 2026 Natalia Melgar, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 13 (2026): Issue 60 (January 2026)