Mapping the Policy Priorities of European Union Citizens: Evidence from the NextGeneration EU Programme

This paper examines how European Union (EU) citizens perceive and prioritise the allocation of resources under the NextGenerationEU (NGEU) recovery plan. Using Eurobarometer 99.4 (2023) data, it analyses whether perceived spending patterns align with citizens’ preferred investment areas. The study combines descriptive evidence with probit models and multilevel probit specifications to identify individual-level determinants of preferences and to account for cross-national heterogeneity. A cluster analysis further groups member states according to marginal effects for health, youth education and training, and improvements in working conditions. The results reveal a persistent perception–preference gap: citizens consistently favour greater investment in health, education, and job quality than they believe the EU provides. Individual characteristics (particularly education, gender, age, and labour market status) emerge as robust predictors of policy priorities, while country-level macroeconomic conditions play a limited role. Although cross-national heterogeneity remains meaningful, as confirmed by multilevel and clustering analyses, it does not overturn the central individual-level patterns. Overall, the findings contribute to debates on EU fiscal governance and legitimacy by showing that public support for NGEU depends not only on policy outputs but also on the alignment between supranational spending and citizens’ expectations.