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The Effect of Climate Risk on China‘s Agri-food Trade Cover

The Effect of Climate Risk on China‘s Agri-food Trade

By:
Open Access
|Sep 2025

Figures & Tables

Effect of climate risk on China’s agricultural trade at income level

(1)(2)
High incomeOthers
DRO−0.0635−0.1069**
(0.0629)(0.0513)
FLO−0.3676***−0.2648***
(0.0449)(0.0261)
SH−0.3086*0.1391
(0.1634)(0.2547)
CNTR--
Year effectYY
Country effectYY
Observations1,7772,363

Effect of climate risk on China’s agricultural trade at sectoral level

(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)
Category ICategory IICategory IIICategory IVCategory V
DRO−0.0786−0.0697−0.2226−0.0942**−0.0706
(0.0587)(0.0549)(0.0000)(0.0466)(0.0806)
FLO−0.3907***−0.3443***−0.2887−0.2479***−0.2940***
(0.0550)(0.0350)(0.0000)(0.0267)(0.0433)
SH−0.04790.2504−1.1799−0.1964*−0.6297**
(0.3049)(0.2813)(0.0000)(0.1136)(0.2789)
EPU0.7497***0.3677***0.66570.1412−0.1530
(0.2036)(0.1236)(0.0000)(0.1003)(0.1544)
PU2.2594***0.7417***0.18260.7024***0.1379
(0.2693)(0.1423)(0.0000)(0.0938)(0.1943)
TAC3.2962***2.1011***3.20331.8905***2.3177***
(0.3530)(0.2199)(0.0000)(0.2110)(0.3285)
LAF0.45371.3033***4.34300.6510**2.1729***
(0.3912)(0.4634)(0.0000)(0.2642)(0.6257)
TWC−1.3146***−0.6922**0.1442−0.29711.4083***
(0.3811)(0.3502)(0.0000)(0.2032)(0.3025)
IAP−0.19201.10490.24990.13141.2283
(0.9428)(1.2091)(0.0000)(0.6457)(1.6215)
AAP5.31753.21080.93180.50812.7678
(3.7666)(4.2910)(0.0000)(2.2753)(5.3678)
MIP0.42950.2087−0.61720.11370.0506
(0.5357)(0.6011)(0.0000)(0.3808)(0.5592)
Constant−3.3414−10.1048−13.249111.8166−14.1921
(15.1269)(17.1195)(0.0000)(9.0853)(21.6627)
Year effectYYYYY
Country effectYYYYY
No. of Obs.4,0734,1403,8344,1404,140

Interactive effect of climate risk and agricultural water consumption

(1)(2)(3)
Total tradeTotal tradeTotal trade
c. DRO#c. TWC−0.0872
(0.0584)
c.FLO#c.TWC 0.1898**
(0.0742)
c.SH#c.TWC 0.4494***
(0.1129)
CNTR---
Year effectYYY
Country effectYYY
Observations4,1404,1404,140

Effect of climate risk on China’s agricultural trade at regional level

(1)(2)
NorthSouth
DRO0.1369**−0.0461
(0.0550)(0.0598)
FLO−0.3112***−0.1737***
(0.0686)(0.0343)
SH3.2629***−0.8778***
(0.4260)(0.1121)
EPU0.5623***1.4958***
(0.1605)(0.1478)
PU0.4094***−1.3611***
(0.1581)(0.2342)
TAC3.1275***5.8725***
(0.3559)(0.4437)
LAF2.5950***3.3587***
(0.5734)(0.6042)
TWC−1.1197***−0.4607
(0.3634)(0.4342)
IAP0.23160.2133
(0.6247)(0.9165)
AAP1.36861.2494
(2.3309)(3.5280)
MIP0.1365−0.2050
(0.4566)(0.4721)
Constant−36.6075***2.0184
(10.3392)(13.5854)
Year effectYY
Country effectYY
Observations2,3321,808

Baseline estimation for effect of climate risk on China’s agricultural trade

(1)(2)
IndexTotal trade
DRODrought-affected area−0.0800**
(0.0403)
FLOFlood-affected area−0.3100***
(0.0277)
SHCumulative sunshine duration−0.0440
(0.1716)
EPUEmployment in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery in urban areas0.2907***
(0.1044)
PUPesticide usage0.6976***
(0.1042)
TACTotal power of agricultural machinery/Total sown area2.1882***
(0.1775)
LAFLocal financial expenditure on agriculture, forestry, and water affairs1.3497***
(0.2891)
TWCAgricultural water consumption−0.2335
(0.2291)
IAPProportion of irrigated land in total agricultural land0.2363
(0.5894)
AAPProportion of agricultural land in total land area1.4999
(3.0269)
MIPProportion of agricultural raw material imports in total commodity imports−0.0427
(0.3603)
Constant 1.6692
(11.3001)
Year effect Y
Country effect Y
No. of Obs. 4,140
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2025-0013 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Language: English
Page range: 205 - 218
Submitted on: Jan 10, 2025
Accepted on: Aug 25, 2025
Published on: Sep 22, 2025
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year

© 2025 Tao Song, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.