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Chasing Returns of Open-End Investment Funds Using Recurrent Neural Networks. A Long-Term Study Cover

Chasing Returns of Open-End Investment Funds Using Recurrent Neural Networks. A Long-Term Study

Open Access
|Feb 2025

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

RNN operation diagramSource: (Olah, 2015)
RNN operation diagramSource: (Olah, 2015)

Figure 2.

Procedure for managing a portfolio of winning fundsSource: own figure
Procedure for managing a portfolio of winning fundsSource: own figure

Literature review on forecasting open-end investment fund NAV and performance using machine learning (chronological order)

Author(s)YearPrediction objectiveDataset employedFrequency of dataMachine learning prediction methodError measuresOverall results
Chiang, Urban, Baldridge(1996)NAV p.s.1981–1986 101 US mutual funds5 years to predict year 6BPN vs regression modelsMAPEBPN model provided better predictions compared to regression models based on MAPE
Indro et al.(1999)1-factor Jensen's alpha1993–1995 559 US equity funds3 years (1 year to predict 1 year)MLP with GRG2ME, MAE, MAPE, MSEMLP model outperformed other models based on multiple error measures
Lin et al.(2007)NAV p.s.3 single national equity funds of Taiwan, US and Japan RBFNNError Index (EI)RBFNN found effective
Wang and Huang(2010)Sharpe index3 historical periods 1995–2000 Mutual funds listed in the Taiwan Economic Journal72 months (1 year to predict 1 year; every two years)FANNC vs BPNRMSEFANNC model outperformed the BPN in terms of RMSE, providing more accurate predictions
Yan et al.(2010)NAV p.s.1 equity Chinese investment fund BPN good prediction accuracy
Ray and Vina(2011)NAV p.s.1999–2004 10 funds from India60 monthsBPN BPN demonstrated strong performance in predicting fund values
Priyadarshini and Babu(2012)NAV p.s.2003–2009 1 fund84 monthsBPNMAE, MSE, RMSE, MAPE, MPEError measures indicate solid performance of the BNP model
Priyadarshini(2015)NAV p.s.2006–2012 1 fund72 monthsMLPMAE, MSE, MAPE, RMSE, MPEGood predictive performance based on these error metrics
Narula, Jha, Panda(2015)NAV p.s.15-Oct-2012 till 2-Jan-2014; 200 Indian funds300 consecutive trading daysFLANN vs RBF vs MLPMAPEFLANN performed well according to MAPE
Anish and Majhi(2016)NAV p.s. RBF and FLANNMAPE, RMSEboth models performed well, with FLANN having a slight advantage in terms of MAPE and RMSE
Anish, B. Majhi, R. Majhi(2018)NAV p.s. RBF-PSO in comparison to MLANN, FLANN and RBFNNMAPE, RMSEThe RBF-PSO model was the most accurate according to MAPE and RMSE
Han et al.(2018)NAV p.s.31-Aug-2015 till 1-Jul-2016 2 funds210 daysGRNNRMSE, RTIC, MAE, MAPE, CEGRNN provides highly accurate predictions
Pan et al.2019NAV p.s.31-Aug-2015 till 1-Jul-2016 17 balanced open-end funds210 daysBPN vs GABPN vs multiple regressionRMSE, RTIC, MAE, MAPE, CEBPN model showed superior performance
Das et al.(2020) SBI Magnum Equity and UTI Equity2010BPN, RBPNN, RRBFNNMSE, RMSE, MAPERBPNN outperformed over the other two prediction methods
Rout, Koudjonou, Satapathy(2020)NAV p.s. (normalized)1998–2002 5 equity funds1065–1255 days (80% of days in training and 20% of days in testing)FLANNRMSE, MAPEFLANN found effective
Li and Rossi(2020)Carhart (1997) 4-factor adjusted alpha1980–2018 2980 US equity funds10 years of training to predict 1 subsequent year alphaBRT, lasso, elastic net, random forest, NNMAE, MSE, RMSEEspecially BRT and random forest outperform traditional regression models in predicting fund performance
Kaniel et al.(2023)4/5/6/8-factor Jensen's alpha1980–2019 3275 U.S. equity fundslast month or year data to predict the next monthFFNMAEFFN models provided accurate predictions
DeMiguel et al.(2023)6-factor Jensen's alpha1980–2020 8767 US equity funds10 years of training to predict 1 year alphaGradient boosting: random forest, elastic netMAE, MSE, RMSEthese advanced machine learning models performed well in prediction accuracy over long training periods.

Returns of the strategy and its benchmarks

average returnreturn for the best fundreturn for the worst fund
All funds
Strategy based on RNN fund return predictions34.12%245,76%−29,67%
ARIMA model30.88%241.03%−28,65%
“buy and hold” strategy30.44%241.03%−30.22%
Equity funds
Strategy based on RNN fund return predictions33.74%85.21%−28.88%
ARIMA model29.14%84.36%−31.22%
“buy and hold” strategy29.47%84.36%−30.22%
Hybrid funds
Strategy based on RNN fund return predictions36.29%246.54%−16.95%
ARIMA model32.12%242.37%−17.41%
“buy and hold” strategy31.96%241.03%−17.68%
Fixed-income funds
Strategy based on RNN fund return predictions33.25%56.21%17.03%
ARIMA model31.01%54.90%16.49%
“buy and hold” strategy31.58%54.90%16.49%
Money market funds
Strategy based on RNN fund return predictions27.21%38.12%20.12%
ARIMA model24.98%37.51%18.77%
“buy and hold” strategy25.09%37.51%19.88%

Descriptive statistics of studied funds (annualised logarithmic rate of returns)

No. of fundsAvg NAV (in Mio PLN)logarithmic return
maxminavgmedianst.dev.1st quartile3rd quartile
all71769.5775%−447%4.1%3.9%11.9%−7.1%16.8%
equity funds18602.72443%−447%3.9%4.6%19.6%−30.7%43%
hybrid funds24714.35775%−283%4.7%5.2%10.7%−11.1%22.1%
fixed-income funds21658.46231%−92%4.2%3.8%4.9%−1%9.6%
money market fund8906.6844%−70%3.8%3.6%1.5%2.2%5.2%
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2025-0004 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Language: English
Page range: 49 - 65
Published on: Feb 14, 2025
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year

© 2025 Katarzyna Perez, Marcin Bartkowiak, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.