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Beyond the Initial Export Boost: The Erosion of Trade Agreement Benefits Cover

Beyond the Initial Export Boost: The Erosion of Trade Agreement Benefits

By:
Open Access
|Mar 2024

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

Polish Exports to WB region: Evolution over the years, by destination
Polish Exports to WB region: Evolution over the years, by destination

Figure 2.

Polish Exports to WB region, by Section, Changes over time (2006–2010 vs. 2016–2020)
Polish Exports to WB region, by Section, Changes over time (2006–2010 vs. 2016–2020)

Figure 3.

Poland’s RCA 2016–2020 (Exports to WB Region)
Poland’s RCA 2016–2020 (Exports to WB Region)

Figure 4.

Share of Exports to WB (Poland relative to EU)
Share of Exports to WB (Poland relative to EU)

Figure 5.

Kaplan Meier Survival Export RCAs Estimations, Poland compared to the EU
Kaplan Meier Survival Export RCAs Estimations, Poland compared to the EU

Figure 6.

Kaplan Meier Export RCAs Estimations, Sections 5 & 16, Poland vs. the EU
Kaplan Meier Export RCAs Estimations, Sections 5 & 16, Poland vs. the EU

Figure 7.

Tariffs vs. TBTs in the WBs on Polish Exports
Tariffs vs. TBTs in the WBs on Polish Exports

Figure 8.

TBTs on Polish Exports to the WB Region, by Sections
TBTs on Polish Exports to the WB Region, by Sections

Survival Analysis, Export RCAs to WBs, Poland vs_ EU, by Section

SectionsThe Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates, After 5 YearsThe Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates, After 10 Years
PolandEUPolandEU
Sec.01 - Live animals and products56.5%52.6%24.9%18.2%
Sec.02 - Vegetable products55.9%52.2%19.0%17.3%
Sec.03 - Animal and vegetable fats, oils and waxes55.1%49.0%26.6%16.5%
Sec.04 - Prepared foodstuff; beverages,55.9%53.2%21.4%18.6%
Sec.05 - Mineral products50.1%48.7%16.6%15.7%
Sec.06 - Products of the chemical and allied industries54.4%50.5%19.8%17.5%
Sec.07 - Resins, plastics and articles;53.9%52.7%19.2%18.7%
Sec.08 - Hides, skins and articles; saddlery and travel goods54.9%50.9%21.0%17.8%
Sec.09 - Wood, cork and articles; basketware51.4%50.6%16.7%16.9%
Sec.10 - Paper, paperboard and articles52.5%51.7%17.7%18.0%
Sec.11 - Textiles and articles52.7%52.7%19.3%19.2%
Sec.12 - Footwear, headgear; feathers, artif. flowers, fans53.1%50.3%18.2%16.6%
Sec.13 - Articles of stone, plaster; ceramic prod.; glass54.7%51.2%19.7%17.4%
Sec.14 - Pearls, precious stones and metals; coin93.4%88.5%87.8%79.8%
Sec.15 - Base metals and articles54.6%51.5%19.1%18.1%
Sec.16 - Machinery and electrical equipment54.0%51.4%19.3%17.9%
Sec.17 - Vehicles, aircraft and vessels53.5%52.1%19.2%18.0%
Sec.18 - Instruments, clocks, recorders53.6%51.2%20.9%18.2%
Sec.19 - Arms and ammunition88.9%81.7% 81.7%
Sec.20 - Miscellaneous manufactured articles54.2%52.7%20.2%18.2%
Sec.21 - Works of art and antiques66.6%70.0%13.3%40.0%

Survival Analysis, Poland RCAs to WBs, SAAs contribution, by Section

SectionsThe Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates After 5 YearsThe Kaplan-Meier Survival Rates After 10 Years
SAAsNo Trade AgreementSAAsNo Trade Agreement
Sec.01 - Live animals and products50.94%31.32%18.07%3.74%
Sec.02 - Vegetable products51.07%28.93%17.02%5.35%
Sec.03 - Animal and vegetable fats, oils and waxes47.67%26.67%16.43%1.82%
Sec.04 - Prepared foodstuff; beverages,51.73%36.02%18.40%6.00%
Sec.05 - Mineral products47.51%27.85%15.50%3.71%
Sec.06 - Products of the chemical and allied industries48.55%46.08%16.98%9.75%
Sec.07 - Resins, plastics and articles;50.94%39.13%18.13%9.97%
Sec.08 - Hides, skins and articles; saddlery and travel goods49.18%39.12%17.38%9.33%
Sec.09 - Wood, cork and articles; basketware49.11%27.61%16.52%5.12%
Sec.10 - Paper, paperboard and articles49.79%35.59%17.39%8.14%
Sec.11 - Textiles and articles50.73%36.61%18.56%8.59%
Sec.12 - Footwear, headgear; feathers, artif. flowers, fans48.76%36.64%16.14%11.26%
Sec.13 - Articles of stone, plaster; ceramic prod.; glass49.79%33.77%17.05%7.11%
Sec.14 - Pearls, precious stones and metals; coin46.71%54.69%15.30%20.31%
Sec.15 - Base metals and articles49.99%35.56%17.64%7.65%
Sec.16 - Machinery and electrical equipment49.51%38.87%17.36%10.26%
Sec.17 - Vehicles, aircraft and vessels50.32%42.26%17.47%13.52%
Sec.18 - Instruments, clocks, recorders49.28%49.09%17.69%14.03%
Sec.19 - Arms and ammunition44.48%66.67%3.73%
Sec.20 - Miscellaneous manufactured articles50.80%37.42%17.67%9.82%
Sec.21 - Works of art and antiques46.50%51.85%11.86%7.41%
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2024-0010 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Language: English
Page range: 128 - 140
Published on: Mar 28, 2024
Published by: Sciendo
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 times per year

© 2024 Eyal Ronen, published by Sciendo
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.