Home Advantage Revisited: Did COVID Level the Playing Fields?

Strawiński, Paweł; Krawczyk, Michał

Home Advantage Revisited: Did COVID Level the Playing Fields?

Central European Economic Journal

Volume 9 (2022): Issue 56 (January 2022)

By:

Paweł Strawiński

and Michał Krawczyk

Open Access

|Apr 2022

Figures & Tables

Regression for match outcome

Variable	ENG_total	ENG_last4	GER_total	GER_last4	ITA_total	ITA_last4	SPA_total	SPA_last4
H points season	0.016^***		0.016^***		0.016^***		0.017^***
A points season	−0.016^***		−0.019^***		−0.018^***		−0.016^***
H points last 4		0.045^***		0.043^***		0.064^***		0.040^***
A points last 4		−0.061^***		−0.060^***		−0.067^***		−0.038^***
COVID period indicator	0.027	−0.007	−0.252^***	−0.265^***	0.025	0.009	−0.102	−0.141
weekend dummy	−0.023	−0.074	0.014	0.034	0.011	0.005	−0.027	−0.019
Rest	0.000	0.000	−0.003	−0.007^*	−0.001	0.000	−0.002	−0.002
capacity utilization	0.536	0.790	0.176	1.202^***	−0.092	0.131	−0.092	0.463^*
air distance (km)	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Derby	−0.036	−0.014	0.166	0.180	0.043	0.095	−0.069	−0.150
Constant	−0.331	−0.438	−0.076	−0.904^***	0.130	−0.020	0.302^*	−0.116
N	1140	1020	918	810	1140	1018	1140	1019
log lik	−1276.75	−1255.91	−1046.52	−987.26	−1275.28	−1239.49	−1285.02	−1241.76

Regression for match outcome with placebo for COVID

Variable	ENG_total	ENG_last4	GER_total	GER_last4	ITA_total	ITA_last4	SPA_total	SPA_last4
H points season	0.016^***		0.016^***		0.016^***		0.017^***
A points season	−0.016^***		−0.019^***		−0.018^***		−0.016^***
H points last 4		0.045^***		0.043^***		0.064^***		0.040^***
A points last 4		−0.061^***		−0.059^***		−0.068^***		−0.037^***
COVID placebo	−0.042	−0.068	−0.014	−0.006	0.061	0.065	−0.005	−0.025
Weekend	−0.032	−0.079	0.068	0.090	0.018	0.015	−0.004	0.009
Rest	0.000	0.001	−0.005	−0.009^**	0.000	0.000	−0.002	−0.003
capacity utilization	0.531	0.796	0.211	1.155^***	−0.067	0.130	−0.121	0.436^*
air distance (km)	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
Derby	−0.037	−0.013	0.144	0.148	0.051	0.094	−0.067	−0.144
Constant	−0.349	−0.430	−0.034	−0.917^***	0.193	−0.047	0.242	−0.125
N	1140	1020	918	810	1140	1018	1140	1019
log lik	−1276.49	−1255.28	−1050.36	−990.85	−1274.55	−1238.78	−1285.83	−1242.95

Average attendance per match and stadium capacity utilization

League	Attendance	Utilization
England	38,609	97%
Germany	43,030	91%
Italy	26,636	68%
Spain	27,858	74%

Standard error and standard deviation of season points by league

League	SE	sqrt(#matches)	SD
GER	15.33	5.8310	89.39
SPA	15.79	6.1644	97.34
ENG	18.89	6.1644	116.45
ITA	18.66	6.1644	115.03

Logits for win indicator with placebo for COVID

Variable	ENG_total	ENG_last4	GER_total	GER_last4	ITA_total	ITA_last4	SPA_total	SPA_last4
H points season	0.048^***		0.042^***		0.043^***		0.046^***
A points season	−0.038^***		−0.043^***		−0.048^***		−0.042^***
H points last 4		0.102^***		0.087^***		0.168^***		0.092^***
A points last 4		−0.117^***		−0.135^***		−0.164^***		−0.095^***
COVID placebo indicator	−0.020	−0.071	0.030	0.053	0.150	0.156	0.026	−0.011
weekend dummy	−0.003	−0.119	0.309	0.337	−0.047	−0.088	−0.019	0.042
rest	−0.003	−0.002	−0.012	−0.024^**	−0.004	−0.002	−0.006	−0.006
capacity utilization	2.008	2.214^*	0.681	2.892^***	−0.206	0.126	−0.418	1.096^*
air distance (km)	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
derby	−0.191	−0.135	0.755^**	0.661^*	0.025	0.074	−0.299	−0.497^*
Constant	−2.656^**	−2.053	−1.306	−2.972^***	−0.080	−0.525	−0.039	−0.920^*
N	1140	1020	918	810	1140	1018	1140	1019
log lik	−649.98	−674.82	−545.37	−522.11	−630.27	−644.10	−678.71	−683.09

Data description and sources

Variable	Description	Own calculation involved?
www.soccerstats.com
day, year, matchday	Match date and matchday number	No
weekend dummy	Weekend dummy	Yes
Rest	Number of rest days since last league match of the home team (virtually always identical to that of the away team)	Yes
COVID	COVID period indicator	Yes
H, A,	Home team and away team	No
H points season	Season points team of the home team	Yes
A points season	Season points team of the away team	Yes
H/A points last 4	Points gained by Home/away team during last 4 matches	Yes
Outcome	1 if H wins the match, 0 if there is a draw, −1 if A wins	No
Win	1 if H wins, 0 otherwise	No
match goal diff.	number of goals scored by H minus goals scored by A	No
www.transfermarkt.de
Attendance	Average season attendance	No
Capacity	Stadium capacity	No
Capacity utilization	Season average capacity utilization	Yes
www.sportmapworld.com
Air distance	Air distance between team stadiums in km	Yes
Derby	1 if distance <=50 km, 0 otherwise	No

Regression for goal difference

Variable	ENG_total	ENG_last4	GER_total	GER_last4	ITA_total	ITA_last4	SPA_total	SPA_last4
H points season	0.042^***		0.041^***		0.036^***		0.038^***
A points season	−0.035^***		−0.047^***		−0.037^***		−0.033^***
H points last 4		−0.148^***		−0.157^***		−0.141^***		−0.085^***
A points last 4		0.127^***		0.098^***		0.154^***		0.088^***
COVID period indicator	0.085	0.011	−0.521^**	−0.587^**	0.096	0.073	−0.220	0.311^*
weekend dummy	−0.009	−0.144	0.265	0.308	−0.008	−0.007	−0.122	0.115
rest	0.004	0.005	−0.007	−0.012	−0.004	−0.004	−0.004	0.004
capacity utilization	0.807	1.369	1.124^*	3.295^***	−0.316	0.106	−0.608	0.669
air distance (km)	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
derby	0.056	0.115	0.173	0.128	0.186	0.295	−0.154	0.332
Constant	−0.501	−0.74	−0.764	−2.483^***	0.422^*	0.016	0.964^***	0.038
N	1140	1020	918	810	1140	1018	1140	1019
log lik	−2144.42	−2054.22	−1830.95	−1696.73	−2085.43	−1979.31	−2065.49	−1953.84

Regression for goal difference with placebo for COVID

Variable	ENG_total	ENG_last4	GER_total	GER_last4	ITA_total	ITA_last4	SPA_total	SPA_last4
home team points	0.042^***		0.042^***		0.036^***		0.038^***
away team points	−0.035^***		−0.047^***		−0.037^***		−0.033^***
home team form		0.127^***		0.099^***		0.154^***		0.089^***
away team form		−0.148^***		−0.155^***		−0.141^***		−0.084^***
COVID period	0.035	−0.011	0.058	0.050	0.086	0.101	−0.084	0.131
weekend dummy	−0.018	−0.147	0.386^*	0.435^*	−0.012	−0.005	−0.090	0.070
rest	0.005	0.006	−0.010	−0.016^*	−0.004	−0.004	−0.005	0.006
capacity utilization	0.792	1.368	1.039	3.188^***	−0.304	0.114	−0.647	0.608
air distance (km)	−0.000	−0.000	0.000	−0.000	0.000	0.000	−0.000	0.000
derby	0.057	0.115	0.112	0.054	0.184	0.293	−0.148	0.322
Constant	−0.485	−0.735	−0.815	−2.530^***	0.399^*	−0.017	0.971^***	0.053
N	1140	1020	918	810	1140	1018	1140	1019
log lik	−2144.48	−2054.22	−1833.86	−1699.73	−2085.24	−1979.00	−2066.11	−1954.71

Logits for win indicator

Variable	ENG_total	ENG_last4	GER_total	GER_last4	ITA_total	ITA_last4	SPA_total	SPA_last4
H points season	0.048^***		0.042^***		0.043^***		0.046^***
A points season	−0.038^***		−0.043^***		−0.048^***		−0.042^***
H points last 4		0.102^***		0.087^***		0.168^***		0.092^***
A points last 4		−0.118^***		−0.137^***		−0.164^***		−0.096^***
COVID period indicator	0.193	0.060	−0.627^**	−0.581^**	0.126	0.074	−0.281	−0.331
weekend dummy	0.032	−0.103	0.173	0.219	−0.050	−0.099	−0.089	−0.035
rest	−0.004	−0.003	−0.009	−0.022^*	−0.004	−0.002	−0.004	−0.004
capacity utilization	2.043	2.220^*	0.766	3.004^***	−0.220	0.117	−0.365	1.163^*
air distance (km)	0.000	0.000	0.001	0.001	0.000	0.000	0.000	0.000
derby	−0.191	−0.135	0.755^**	0.661^*	0.025	0.074	−0.299	−0.497^*
Constant	−2.723^**	−2.082^*	−1.246	−2.923^***	−0.028	−0.466	0.015	−0.878^*
N	1140	1020	918	810	1140	1018	1140	1019
log lik	−649.71	−674.9	−542.76	−519.68	−630.61	−644.64	−678.03	−681.97

Descriptive statistics

League	GER		SPA		ENG		ITA
Variable	Mean	SE	Mean	SE	Mean	SE	Mean	SE
H/A points season	46.85	15.33	51.98	15.79	52.63	18.89	52.35	18.66
H points last 4	5.46	2.93	5.39	2.80	5.36	3.10	5.44	3.04
A points last 4	5.53	2.94	5.55	2.86	5.72	3.00	5.56	3.04
COVID placebo indicator	0.09	0.29	0.10	0.39	0.08	0.27	0.11	0.31
weekend dummy	0.91	0.28	0.82	0.38	0.78	0.42	0.81	0.39
rest	8.92	7.83	8.30	9.29	8.42	9.93	8.18	9.51
capacity utilization	0.91	0.09	0.74	0.11	0.97	0.05	0.68	0.15
air distance (km)	5.50	0.72	5.78	1.16	4.91	1.02	5.59	0.80
derby	0.05	0.21	0.07	0.26	0.14	0.35	0.05	0.22
N	918	918	1140	1140	1140	1140	1140	1140

Home team win percentage

Season		ENG	GER	ITA	SPA
2017/18	Before COVID (placebo)^*	0.465	0.429	0.432	0.469
	COVID (placebo)^*	0.422	0.533	0.431	0.476
2018/19	Before COVID (placebo)^*	0.482	0.442	0.425	0.415
	COVID (placebo)^*	0.457	0.476	0.464	0.509
2019/20	Before COVID	0.448	0.430	0.402	0.478
	COVID	0.467	0.325	0.444	0.409

DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2022-0004 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001

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Language: English

Page range: 56 - 67

Published on: Apr 25, 2022

Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Publication frequency: 1 times per year

Keywords:

football,

home-field advantage,

COVID-19,

supporters,

fans

Related subjects:

Business and economics,

Political economics,

Economic theory, systems and structures,

Microeconomics,

Macroeconomics,

Economic policy

© 2022 Paweł Strawiński, Michał Krawczyk, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.

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