Figure 1

Figure A1

Figure A2

Figure A3

Summary statistics for the donor pool
| Variable | Source | Mean | SD | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP per capita | PWT | 17,589.66 | 13,757.82 | 2,289.263 | 71,831.64 |
| Population growth | WDI | 0.7860545 | 0.8181689 | −1.523536 | 2.59392 |
| Real GDP | PWT | 12.74676 | 1.597858 | 9.1772 | 16.81404 |
| Share of agriculture in VA | PWT | 8.77402 | 5.422181 | 0.6498945 | 36.4107 |
| Share of industry in VA | PWT | 30.52559 | 8.004571 | 15.34689 | 59.48079 |
| Investment share in GDP | PWT | 0.2301817 | 0.0738198 | 0.0691244 | 0.4830763 |
| Secondary enrolment | WDI | 87.82568 | 18.7099 | 36.64821 | 157.1677 |
| Tertiary enrolment | WDI | 42.94293 | 22.58071 | 3.61141 | 120.9657 |
| Tax burden | Heritage | 74.39966 | 9.964509 | 37.3 | 92.8 |
| Business freedom | Heritage | 68.89915 | 12.68835 | 38.7 | 99.9 |
| Monetary freedom | Heritage | 71.83525 | 17.48437 | 0,00 | 95.4 |
| Trade freedom | Heritage | 73.42695 | 11.92106 | 17.6 | 92.4 |
Macroeconomic implications of accession to the EU: GDP growth rates in 2000–2009 for eight acceding countries (without Bulgaria and Romania)
| Scenarios | 2000–2009 | 2000–2004 | 2005–2009 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline scenario (no accession) | 3.0 | 3.1 | 2.9 |
| Central scenario | 4.3 | 4.0 | 4.6 |
| Optimistic scenario | 5.1 | 4.0 | 6.1 |
Weights of donors in the synthetic counterfactual, simple model
| Country | Czech Republic | Estonia | Hungary | Latvia | Lithuania | Poland | Slovak Republic | Slovenia | Bulgaria | Romania |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 0.41 |
| Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 0 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0 | 0 | 0.08 | 0 |
| Belarus | 0 | 0.05 | 0 | 0.68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brazil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.08 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 |
| Canada | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.01 | 0 |
| Chile | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Colombia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Israel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Korea, Rep | 0.28 | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.35 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaysia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moldova | 0 | 0.59 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.60 | 0 |
| Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.76 | 0.21 | 0 | 0.37 | 0 | 0 |
| Philippines | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russia | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.49 | 0 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.56 |
| Switzerland | 0.29 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 0 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.27 | 0.03 | 0 |
| Thailand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ukraine | 0.43 | 0 | 0.25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.20 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 |
| Uruguay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Weights of donors in the synthetic counterfactual, extended model
| Country | Czech Republic | Estonia | Hungary | Latvia | Lithuania | Poland | Slovak Republic | Slovenia | Bulgaria | Romania |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albania | 0 | 0.68 | 0.09 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Algeria | 0 | 0 | 0.41 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Argentina | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Australia | 0 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.18 | 0 | 0.23 | 0 | 0 |
| Belarus | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.30 | 0.87 |
| Brazil | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.02 | 0 | 0 |
| Canada | 0.19 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.08 | 0 |
| Chile | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| China | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 0.10 |
| Colombia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Indonesia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.11 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Israel | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Korea. Rep | 0 | 0.21 | 0 | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.16 | 0 | 0 |
| Malaysia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mexico | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Moldova | 0 | 0 | 0.19 | 0 | 0 | 0.27 | 0.34 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Morocco | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0 |
| New Zealand | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.26 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Macedonia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.76 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0 | 0.13 | 0 |
| Philippines | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Russia | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Switzerland | 0.22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0 | 0 |
| Thailand | 0.10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.04 | 0 | 0 | 0.03 |
| Turkey | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ukraine | 0.27 | 0 | 0 | 0.28 | 0 | 0.31 | 0 | 0 | 0.46 | 0 |
| Uruguay | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
