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Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions Cover

Economic impact of the EU Eastern enlargement on New Member States revisited: The role of economic institutions

Open Access
|Jul 2021

Figures & Tables

Figure 1

New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual 6 years and 12 years after accession.
New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual 6 years and 12 years after accession.

Figure A1

New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual (simple model – left, extended model – right)
New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual (simple model – left, extended model – right)

Figure A2

New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual (continued, simple model – left, extended model – right)
New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual (continued, simple model – left, extended model – right)

Figure A3

New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual 15 years after accession
New Member States GDP per capita versus the counterfactual 15 years after accession

Summary statistics for the donor pool

VariableSourceMeanSDMinMax
Real GDP per capitaPWT17,589.6613,757.822,289.26371,831.64
Population growthWDI0.78605450.8181689−1.5235362.59392
Real GDPPWT12.746761.5978589.177216.81404
Share of agriculture in VAPWT8.774025.4221810.649894536.4107
Share of industry in VAPWT30.525598.00457115.3468959.48079
Investment share in GDPPWT0.23018170.07381980.06912440.4830763
Secondary enrolmentWDI87.8256818.709936.64821157.1677
Tertiary enrolmentWDI42.9429322.580713.61141120.9657
Tax burdenHeritage74.399669.96450937.392.8
Business freedomHeritage68.8991512.6883538.799.9
Monetary freedomHeritage71.8352517.484370,0095.4
Trade freedomHeritage73.4269511.9210617.692.4

Macroeconomic implications of accession to the EU: GDP growth rates in 2000–2009 for eight acceding countries (without Bulgaria and Romania)

Scenarios2000–20092000–20042005–2009
Baseline scenario (no accession)3.03.12.9
Central scenario4.34.04.6
Optimistic scenario5.14.06.1

Weights of donors in the synthetic counterfactual, simple model

CountryCzech RepublicEstoniaHungaryLatviaLithuaniaPolandSlovak RepublicSloveniaBulgariaRomania
Albania000.310000.34000.41
Algeria0000000.13000
Argentina0000000000
Australia00.150.12000.15000.080
Belarus00.0500.68000000
Brazil000000.150.0800.040
Canada00000.130000.010
Chile0000000000
China0000000000
Colombia0000000000
Indonesia0000000000
Israel0000000000
Korea, Rep0.280.20000000.3500
Malaysia0000000000
Mexico0000000000
Moldova00.590000000.600
Morocco0000000000
New Zealand0000000000
Macedonia0000.260.760.2100.3700
Philippines0000000000
Russia000.1600.100.49000.240.56
Switzerland0.2900.160.06000.250.270.030
Thailand0000000000
Turkey0000000000
Ukraine0.4300.250000.20000.03
Uruguay0000000000

Weights of donors in the synthetic counterfactual, extended model

CountryCzech RepublicEstoniaHungaryLatviaLithuaniaPolandSlovak RepublicSloveniaBulgariaRomania
Albania00.680.09000.020000
Algeria000.41000.110.08000
Argentina0000000000
Australia000.310.0200.1800.2300
Belarus00000000.120.300.87
Brazil00000000.0200
Canada0.190.11000.130.080.050.170.080
Chile0.22000000000
China00000000.1900.10
Colombia0000000000
Indonesia0000000.11000
Israel0000000.04000
Korea. Rep00.2100.220000.1600
Malaysia0000000000
Mexico0000000000
Moldova000.19000.270.34000
Morocco00000000.060.030
New Zealand0000000.26000
Macedonia0000.480.760.030.0200.130
Philippines0000000000
Russia00000.1000000
Switzerland0.22000000.050.0500
Thailand0.10000000.04000.03
Turkey0000000000
Ukraine0.27000.2800.31000.460
Uruguay0000000000
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/ceej-2021-0008 | Journal eISSN: 2543-6821 | Journal ISSN: 2544-9001
Language: English
Page range: 126 - 143
Published on: Jul 25, 2021
Published by: Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2021 Jan Hagemejer, Jan J. Michałek, Pavel Svatko, published by Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 License.