Figure 1.
Figure 2.
Figure 3.
Figure 4.
Figure 5.
Figure 6.
Figure 7.
Best autoregressive parameters for prediction of PMX
| Future day | p for PMX | p for PMY | lag for PMX | lag for PMY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | 60 | 60 | 5 | 15 |
| 3-6 | 60 | 60 | 1 | 15 |
| 7-10 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 16 |
| 11-13, 37-38, 41-42 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
| 14 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 15-20, 24, 28-29 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 21-23, 25-27, 30 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 31-34 | 5 | 19 | 1 | 1 |
| 35-36,39-40 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| 43-57, 65-75 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 3 |
| 58, 62-64 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 18 |
| 59-61 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 17 |
| 75-90 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 6 |
Best autoregressive parameters for prediction of PMY
| Future day | p for PMX | p for PMY | lag for PMX | lag for PMY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1-6 | 19 | 19 | 1 | 1 |
| 7 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 17 |
| 8-11 | 20 | 20 | 18 | 18 |
| 12 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| 13-14,16-67,73-90 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 |
| 15 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 68-72 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 2 |
PM prediction errors (MAE) at different future days
| 1 days | 5 days | 10 days | 20 days | 40 days | 60 days | 90 days | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PMX forecast of this paper (milli arcsec) | 0.30 | 1.04 | 2.74 | 4.57 | 7.62 | 10.58 | 13.78 |
| PMX forecast of IERS (milli arcsec) | 0.31 | 1.56 | 2.93 | 4.95 | 7.08 | 9.51 | 11.57 |
| PMX forecast error reduction (%) | 2.62 | 32.98 | 6.59 | 7.74 | −7.67 | −11.23 | −19.07 |
| PMY forecast of this paper (milli arcsec) | 0.19 | 0.54 | 1.46 | 2.10 | 3.31 | 3.97 | 5.60 |
| PMY forecast of IERS (milli arcsec) | 0.24 | 1.07 | 1.76 | 2.62 | 4.42 | 5.28 | 7.89 |
| PMY forecast error Reduction (%) | 20.77 | 48.98 | 17.53 | 20.05 | 25.13 | 24.97 | 28.93 |