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Earth Rotation Parameters Prediction and Climate Change Indicators in it Cover

Earth Rotation Parameters Prediction and Climate Change Indicators in it

By: Xueqing Xu,  Yonghong Zhou and  Cancan XU  
Open Access
|Jan 2023

Figures & Tables

Figure 1.

EOP interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal terms extracted from IERS C04 observations (black line) and convoluted from the EAM series (red line) during 1980-2022.
(a) Px, (b) Py and (c) ΔLOD
EOP interannual, seasonal and sub-seasonal terms extracted from IERS C04 observations (black line) and convoluted from the EAM series (red line) during 1980-2022. (a) Px, (b) Py and (c) ΔLOD

Figure 2.

Monthly mean series of the climate-related ΔLOD and Nino 3.4 from January 1980 to April 2022. The blue square frames mark the three extreme El Nino events; the red square frame marks the latest two La Nina events during 2020–2022. (a) Climate-related ΔLOD and (b) Nino 3.4
Monthly mean series of the climate-related ΔLOD and Nino 3.4 from January 1980 to April 2022. The blue square frames mark the three extreme El Nino events; the red square frame marks the latest two La Nina events during 2020–2022. (a) Climate-related ΔLOD and (b) Nino 3.4

Figure 3.

The 1–90 days’ RMSE calculated from the LS + AR (blue dot line) and LS + Convolution (red dot line) model. (a) Px, (b) Py and (c) UT1-UTC
The 1–90 days’ RMSE calculated from the LS + AR (blue dot line) and LS + Convolution (red dot line) model. (a) Px, (b) Py and (c) UT1-UTC

Figure 4.

Climate change information extracted from ΔLOD observations and predictions: (a) 2020–2021 time span, (b) 2020–2022 time span and (c) 2020–2023 time span
Climate change information extracted from ΔLOD observations and predictions: (a) 2020–2021 time span, (b) 2020–2022 time span and (c) 2020–2023 time span

RMSE of different EOP forecast spans obtained by the LS + AR and LS + CV methods over 07_2021–03_2022

Forecast span (days)Px (mas)Py (mas)UT1-UTC (ms)
LS + ARLS + CVLS + ARLS + CVLS + ARLS + CV
10.700.0580.870.840.200.18
21.141.051.051.000.350.32
31.611.541.321.270.500.47
42.122.111.501.450.640.60
52.542.541.671.640.760.71
62.842.831.831.810.860.82
73.023.021.881.860.910.89
83.223.221.931.920.970.95
93.443.432.012.011.031.01
103.753.742.142.131.101.07
204.875.153.013.062.832.90
305.445.803.984.104.184.40
405.355.855.235.535.986.46
504.475.516.477.088.038.72
604.324.827.338.129.9810.85
705.275.448.179.0811.6312.47
806.006.229.0910.0413.2014.18
906.106.139.5210.3215.1316.04
DOI: https://doi.org/10.2478/arsa-2022-0023 | Journal eISSN: 2083-6104 | Journal ISSN: 1509-3859
Language: English
Page range: 262 - 273
Submitted on: Jun 28, 2022
|
Accepted on: Aug 16, 2022
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Published on: Jan 5, 2023
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 4 issues per year

© 2023 Xueqing Xu, Yonghong Zhou, Cancan XU, published by Polish Academy of Sciences, Space Research Centre
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.