Scenario-based facility plant design strategies for post-industrial coastal area transformation: A decision support framework for sustainable urban landscape at İzmir Port, Türkiye

The transformation of post-industrial coastal areas holds critical potential for sustainable urban development yet planting design decisions in this process are largely based on qualitative and subjective principles. This study aims to demonstrate how plant design strategies can be structured using a quantitative, transparent, and multi-criteria decision support model, in the case of Izmir Port. The research adopts a two-stage methodology integrating site-specific data obtained through SWOT analysis with the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Among the six main criteria weighted by expert evaluation, ‘Ecological Suitability and Sustainability’ (33.19%) received the highest priority, followed by ‘Green Infrastructure and Ecological Connectivity’ (19.46%) and ‘Aesthetic and Visual Quality’ (19.46%). This weighing confirms the central role of ecological restoration in the transformation of the region. The AHP results were used to create a ‘design spectrum’ based on the relative importance of the criteria, and four different plant design scenarios (Ecological Maximisation, Social-Aesthetic Focused, Cultural Heritage Focused, Economic -Feasibility Focused) were developed. A comprehensive evaluation of the scenarios revealed that the Ecological Maximisation scenario was the most suitable option within the framework of all the defined criteria. Consequently, this study offers a repeatable and scenario-based decision-making framework that prevents arbitrary decisions in post-industrial port transformations. The presented integrated SWOT-AHP-Scenario model provides an adaptable methodological contribution for similar coastal transformation projects.