Figure 1.
Regression summary Model 1 – Gas Prices
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Number of Observations | 33 |
| F(4, 28) | 5.77 |
| Prob > F | 0.0016 |
| R-squared | 0.45 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.37 |
| Root MSE | 1.24 |
Regression summary Model 2 – Oil Prices
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Number of Observations | 14 |
| F(5, 8) | 12.07 |
| Prob > F | 0.0015 |
| R-squared | 0.88 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.81 |
| Root MSE | 8.35 |
Regression summary Model – Oil Prices
| Statistic | Value |
|---|---|
| Number of Observations | 33 |
| F(4, 28) | 13.74 |
| Prob > F | 0.0000 |
| R-squared | 0.66 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.61 |
| Root MSE | 9.33 |
Correlation Matrix Table
| oil_price_avg | gas_price_avg | gpr | dxy_avg | gdp_growth | inflation_rate | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oil_price_avg | 1.00 | 0.52 | -0.06 | -0.46 | 0.12 | -0.24 |
| gas_price_avg | 0.52 | 1.00 | 0.15 | -0.25 | 0.27 | -0.07 |
| Gpr | -0.06 | 0.15 | 1.00 | 0.36 | -0.07 | 0.06 |
| dxy_avg | -0.46 | -0.25 | 0.36 | 1.00 | -0.01 | -0.20 |
| gdp_growth | 0.12 | 0.27 | -0.07 | -0.01 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| inflation_rate | -0.24 | -0.07 | 0.06 | -0.20 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
Descriptive Statistics of Model-1
| Variable | Obs | Mean | Std. Dev. | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| oil_price_avg | 34 | 50.54 | 28.72 | 14.53 | 98.58 |
| gas_price_avg | 34 | 3.79 | 2.04 | 1.53 | 9.16 |
| Gpr | 34 | 101.17 | 30.60 | 50.91 | 176.30 |
| dxy_avg | 34 | 91.90 | 9.78 | 76.14 | 115.51 |
| gdp_growth | 34 | 2.92 | 1.62 | -2.93 | 6.26 |
| inflation_rate | 34 | 4.68 | 2.49 | 1.44 | 10.25 |
Regression Summary Model 2 – Gas Prices
| Value | |
|---|---|
| Number of Observations | 14 |
| F(5, 8) | 7.85 |
| Prob > F | 0.0060 |
| R-squared | 0.8307 |
| Adjusted R-squared | 0.7249 |
| Root MSE | .78866 |
Regression Results Model 2 – Gas Prices
| Variable | Coef. | Std. Err. | t | P>|t| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gpr | -0.03 | 0.01 | -2.23 | 0.06 |
| d_DXY_AVG | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1.08 | 0.34 |
| gdp_growth | -0.23 | 0.17 | -1.36 | 0.21 |
| d_Inflation | 1.11 | 0.19 | 5.87 | 0.00 |
| Ovx | -0.06 | 0.03 | -2.08 | 0.07 |
| _cons (constant) | 5.60 | 2.07 | 2.70 | 0.02 |
Regression Results Model 2 – Oil Prices
| Variable | Coef. | Std. Err. | T | P>|t| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gpr | -0.06 | 0.15 | -0.41 | 0.69 |
| d_DXY_AVG | -1.56 | 0.54 | -2.90 | 0.02 |
| gdp_growth | 1.79 | 1.77 | 1.01 | 0.34 |
| d_Inflation | 9.83 | 2.00 | 4.92 | 0.00 |
| Ovx | -0.45 | 0.31 | -1.43 | 0.19 |
| _cons (constant) | 18.99 | 21.96 | 0.86 | 0.41 |
Regression results Model 1 – Oil Prices
| Variable | Coef. | Std. Err. | T | P>|t| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gpr | -0.07 | 0.06 | -1.25 | 0.22 |
| d_DXY_AVG | -0.69 | 0.29 | -2.41 | 0.02 |
| gdp_growth | 3.61 | 1.08 | 3.35 | 0.00 |
| d_Inflation | 4.19 | 0.96 | 4.38 | 0.00 |
| _cons (constant) | -1.11 | 7.30 | -0.15 | 0.88 |
Regression Results Model 1 – Gas Prices
| Variable | Coef. | Std. Err. | t | P>|t| |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gpr | -0.00 | 0.01 | -0.63 | 0.53 |
| d_DXY_AVG | -0.02 | 0.04 | -0.48 | 0.64 |
| gdp_growth | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1.38 | 0.18 |
| d_Inflation | 0.48 | 0.13 | 3.73 | 0.00 |
| _cons(constant) | -0.03 | 0.97 | -0.03 | 0.98 |
Results of Multicollinearity test
| Variable | VIF | 1/VIF |
|---|---|---|
| d_Inflation | 1.23 | 0.815524 |
| Gpr | 1.16 | 0.860945 |
| gdp_growth | 1.16 | 0.863686 |
| d_DXY_AVG | 1.07 | 0.93644 |