Table 1.
Key financial model assumptions
| No. | Assumption | Value/Basis |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Analysis period | 5 repayment years + 12-month moratorium (Year 0) |
| 2 | Crops | Tomatoes, sweet pepper, cucumber |
| 3 | Annual price escalation | 10% (aligned with inflation and USD/GH¢ depreciation) |
| 4 | Production capacity | 20 domes × 120 m2 effective area |
| 5 | Capacity utilisation | Year 0: 40%; Year 1: 80%; Years 2–5: 100% |
| 6 | Yields | Tomatoes & sweet pepper: 15 kg/m2; Cucumber: 150 fruits/m2 |
| 7 | Cropping cycles/year | Tomatoes & cucumber: 2 cycles; Sweet pepper: 1 cycle |
| 8 | Inflation rate on costs | 12.1% per annum |
| 9 | Discount rate | 25% (prevailing average lending rate, commercial banks, Ghana, August 2025) |
| 10 | Loan interest rate | 25% per annum |
| 11 | Service charge | 0.5% of loan amount |
| 12 | Moratorium | 12 months, principal and interest; interest capitalised |
| 13 | Repayment period | 5 years after moratorium, reducing balance, monthly |
| 14 | Equity/debt mix | Blended (debt + equity) |
| 15 | Tax holiday | 5 years (agricultural ventures, Ghana Revenue Authority) |
| 16 | USD exchange rate | GH¢11/USD (rate at time of data collection) |
Table 2.
Capital and set-up cost summary
| Item | Cost (GH¢) |
|---|---|
| Capital expenditure (CAPEX) | |
| 20 greenhouse domes (USD 10,000/dome × GH¢11) | 2,200,000 |
| Pack house and accessories | 220,000 |
| Mini-car (internal transport) | 165,000 |
| Pick-up vehicle (distribution and procurement) | 480,000 |
| Total CAPEX | 3,065,000 |
| Set-up/development costs | |
| Site engineering (land, borehole, access road, engineer) | 149,650 |
| Training and operational equipment | 20,072 |
| Working capital | 747,639 |
| Total set-up costs | 917,361 |
| Total project cost | 3,982,361 |
Table 3.
Revenue and key production parameters by period
| Indicator | Year 0 (moratorium) | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | Year 4 | Year 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total revenue (GH¢) | 1,244,160 | 2,737,152 | 3,763,584 | 4,139,942 | 4,553,937 | 5,009,330 |
| Capacity utilisation | 40% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Total output (units) | 74,880 | 149,760 | 187,200 | 187,200 | 187,200 | 187,200 |
| Tomato price (GH¢/kg) | 38.00 | 41.80 | 45.98 | 50.58 | 55.64 | 61.20 |
| Sweet pepper (GH¢/kg) | 50.00 | 55.00 | 60.50 | 66.55 | 73.21 | 80.53 |
| Cucumber (GH¢/fruit) | 9.00 | 9.90 | 10.89 | 11.98 | 13.18 | 14.49 |
Table 4.
Break-even analysis by crop
| Crop | BEP (units) | Avg. selling price (GH¢) | BEP (revenue, GH¢) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tomatoes | 4,243 | 49 | 207,354 |
| Sweet peppers | 2,122 | 64 | 136,417 |
| Cucumbers | 21,217 | 12 | 245,550 |
| Total | 27,582 | – | 589,321 |
Table 5.
Sensitivity analysis – effect of price and cost shocks on NPV and IRR
| Scenario | NPV (GH¢) | IRR (%) | Viability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline (no change) | 838,548 | 33% | Viable |
| Price −10% | −549,623 | 20% | Not viable |
| Price −20% | −1,937,794 | 3% | Not viable |
| Cost +10% | 139,644 | 26% | Viable |
| Cost +20% | −559,260 | 20% | Not viable |
| Price −10% + Cost +10% | −1,239,367 | 12% | Not viable |
| Price −20% + Cost +20% | −3,298,963 | n.a.* | Not viable |