Agricultural Decoupling in EU Transition Economies: Evidence from Tapio Elasticity Analysis

This study examines the relationship between economic growth and greenhouse gas emissions in the agricultural sector across ten transition economies in Central and Eastern Europe (Bulgaria, Czechia, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia) over the period 1998–2023. It addresses the need to reduce emissions while increasing agricultural productivity within the framework of the Sustainable Development Goals by adopting a decoupling approach. Within the growth-emission nexus, the Tapio (2005) elasticity coefficient is calculated annually and is assessed through a classification into policy-relevant sub-periods. The aggregate results for 1998–2023 point to three main clusters: (i) Czechia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovenia, and Hungary stand out as countries in which agricultural output has increased while emissions have declined; (ii) Bulgaria and Latvia are characterized by simultaneous increases in agricultural output and emissions; (iii) Romania and Slovakia exhibit declines in both agricultural output and emissions. Estonia’s results differ from the other countries by displaying a pattern of declining agricultural output alongside rising emissions. Overall, the study indicates that the relationship between agricultural growth and emissions in transition economies is country- and period-sensitive, and that technology and productivity investments need to be tailored accordingly as a core focus of policy design.