
Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part II: Future Changes Using Regional Climate Projections
References
- Barriopedro, D, Fischer, EM, Luterbacher, J, Trigo, RM and Garcia-Herrera, R. 2011. The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe. Science, 322: 220–224. DOI: 10.1126/science.1201224
- Bentsen, M, et al. 2013. The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate. Geosci Model Dev., 6: 687–720. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013
- Berg, P, Christensen, OB, Klehmet, K, Lenderink, G, Olsson, J, Teichmann, C and Yang, W 2019. Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19: 957–971. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019
- Berg, P, Feldmann, H and Panitz, H-J 2012. Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data. J. Hydrol., 448: 80–92. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.026
- Blauhut, V, Gudmundsson, L and Stahl, K. 2015. Towards pan-European drought risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought impacts. Environ. Res. Lett., 10:
014008 . DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008 - Byun, H-R and Wilhite, DA. 1999. Objective Quantification of Drought Severity and Duration. J. Climate, 12: 2747–2756. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<;2747:OQODSA>2.0.CO;2
- Caldeira, MC, Lecomte, X, David, TS, Pinto, JG, Bugalho, MN and Werner, C. 2015. Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates. Sci. Rep., 5: 15110. DOI: 10.1038/srep15110
- Cardell, MF, Romero, R, Amengual, A, Homar, V and Ramis, C. 2019. A quantile-quantile adjustment of the EURO-CORDEX projections for temperatures and precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 39: 2901–2918. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5991
- Christensen, OB, Christensen, JH, Machenhauer, B and Botzet, M. 1998. Very high-resolution regional climate simulations over Scandinavia – Present climate. J Climate, 11: 3204–3229. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<;3204:VHRRCS>2.0.CO;2
- Christensen, JH and Christensen, OB. 2007. A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Clim. Change, 81: 7–30. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7
- Ciais, PH, et al. 2005. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature, 437: 529–533. DOI: 10.1038/nature03972
- Coll, JR, Aguilar, E and Ashcroft, L. 2017. Drought variability and change across the Iberian Peninsula. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 130: 901–916. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-016-1926-3
- Collins, WJ, et al. 2011. Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2. Geosci Model Dev, 4: 1051–1075. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011
- Cook, BI, Ault, TR and Smerdon, JE. 2015. Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Science Advances, 1: e1400082. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1400082
- Cornes, R, van der Schrier, G, van den Besselaar, EJM and Jones, PD. 2018. An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos, 123: 9391–9409. DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028200
- Dai, A. 2011. Drought under global warming: a review. WIREs Clim. Change, 2: 45–65. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.81
- Dai, A. 2013. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature Clim. Change, 3: 52–58. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1633
- Deo, RC, Byun, H-R, Adamowski, JF and Begum, K. 2017. Application of effective drought index for quantification of meteorological drought events: a case study in Australia. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 128: 359–379. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-015-1706-5
- Ehmele, F, Kautz, L-A, Feldmann, H and Pinto, JG. 2020. Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Earth Syst. Dynam., 11: 469–490. DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-469-2020
- Ehmele, F, et al. 2022. Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: A pilot study for the Rhine basin. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22: 677–692. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022
- Ehret, U, Zehe, E, Wulfmeyer, V, Warrach-Sagi, K and Liebert, J. 2012. HESS Opinions “Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?”. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16: 3391–3404. DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012
- Esteban-Parra, MJ, Rodrigo, FS and Castro-Díez, Y. 1998. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880–1992. Int. J. Climatol., 18: 1557–1574. DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19981130)18:14<;1557::AID-JOC328>3.0.CO;2-J
- Eyring, V, Bony, S, Meehl, GA, Senior, CA, Stevens, B, Stouffer, RJ and Taylor, KE. 2016. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev., 9: 1937–1958. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
- Fang, G, Yang, J, Chen, Y and Zammit, C. 2015. Comparing bias correction methods in downscaling meteorological variables for a hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19: 2547–2559. DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2547-2015
- Feldmann, H, Früh, B, Schädler, G, Panitz, H-J, Keuler, K, Jacob, D and Lorenz, P. 2008. Evaluation of the precipitation for South-western Germany from high resolution simulations with regional climate models. Meteorol. Z., 17: 455–465. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0295
- Forzieri, G, et al. 2016. Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change. Climatic Change, 137: 105–119. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x
- Friedlingstein, P, et al. 2019. Global Carbon Budget 2019. Earth Syst Sci Data, 11: 1783–1838. DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019
- Giorgetta, MA, et al. 2013. Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. J Adv Model Earth Syst., 5: 572–597. DOI: 10.1002/jame.20038
- Giorgi, F, Jones, C and Asrar, GR. 2009. Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: The CORDEX framework. Bulletin – World Meteorological Organization, 58: 175–183.
- Guerreiro, SB, Kilsby, C and Fowler, HJ. 2017. Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia. Int. J. Climatol, 37: 5024–5034. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5140
- Haberstroh, S, Caldeira, MC, Lobo-do-Vale, R, Martins, JI, Moemken, J, Pinto, JG and Werner, C. 2021. Non-linear plant-plant interactions modulate impact of extreme drought and recovery on a Mediterranean ecosystem. New Phytol., 231: 1784–1797. DOI: 10.1111/nph.17522
- Haylock, MR, Hofstra, N, Klein Tank, AMG, Klok, EJ, Jones, PD and New, M. 2008. A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2016. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 113: D20119. DOI: 10.1029/2008JD010201
- Herrera, S, Fernández, J and Gutiérrez, JM. 2016. Update of the Spain02 gridded observational dataset for EURO-CORDEX evaluation: assessing the effect of the interpolation methodology. Int. J. Climatol., 36: 900–908. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4391
- Hertig, E. 2004.
Assessment of Mediterranean precipitation and temperature under increased greenhouse warming conditions . Dissertation, University of Würzburg (in German), urn:ubn:de:bvb:20-opus-8740. - Hirschi, M, Seneviratne, SI, Alexandrov, V, Boberg, F, Boroneant, C, Christensen, OB, Formayer, H, Orlowsky, B and Stepanek, P. 2011. Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosci., 4: 17–21. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1032
- Hoerling, M, Eischeid, J, Perlwitz, J, Quan, X, Zhang, T and Pegion, P. 2012. On the increased frequency in Mediterranean Drought. J. Climate, 25: 2146–2161. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1
- Iglesias, A, Garrote, L and Martín-Carrasco, F. 2009. Drought risk management in Mediterranean river basins. Integr. Environ. Assess. Manag., 5: 11–16. DOI: 10.1897/IEAM_2008-044.1
- IPCC. 2021.
Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change . Masson-Delmotte, V, Zhai, P, Pirani, A, Connors, SL, Péan, C, Berger, S, Caud, N, Chen, Y, Goldfarb, L, Gomis, MI, Huang, M, Leitzell, K, Lonnoy, E, Matthews, JBR, Maycock, TK, Waterfield, T, Yelekçi, O, Yu, R and Zhou, B (eds.). Cambridge University Press. In Press. - Jacob, D, et al. 2012. Assessing the transferability of the regional climate model REMO to different coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regions. Atmosphere, 3: 181–199. DOI: 10.3390/atmos3010181
- Jacob, D, et al. 2014. EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg. Environ. Change, 14: 563–578. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
- Kamruzzaman, M, Jang, M-W, Cho, J and Hwang, S. 2019. Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh under CMIP5 Climatological Projections. Water, 11: 2219. DOI: 10.3390/w11112219
- Khodayar, S, Sehlinger, A, Feldmann, H and Kottmeier, CH. 2015. Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe. Int. J. Climatol, 35: 1899–1915. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4096
- Kim, D-W and Byun, H-R. 2009. Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario. Theor. Appl. Climatol, 98: 137–150. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-008-0100-y
- Lee, B-R, Oh, S-B and Byun, H-R. 2015. The characteristics of drought occurrence in North Korea and its comparison with drought in South Korea. Theor. Appl. Climatol, 121: 199–209. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1230-z
- Liang, X-Z, Kunkel, KE, Meehl, GA, Jones, RG and Wang, JXL. 2008. Regional climate models downscaling analysis of general circulation models present climate biases propagation into future change projections. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35: L08709. DOI: 10.1029/2007GL032849
- Maheras, P, Xoplaki, E and Kutiel, H. 1999. Wet and Dry Monthly Anomalies Across the Mediterranean Basin and their Relationship with Circulation, 1860–1990. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 64: 189–199. DOI: 10.1007/s007040050122
- Maraun, D. 2016. Bias correcting climate change simulations – a critical review. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 2: 211–220. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x
- McKee, TB, Doesken, NJ and Kleist, J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration on timescales. Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology,
17–22 January 1993 , Anaheim, CA. - Meijgaard, E van, Van Ulft, LH, Lenderink, G, de Roode, SR, Wipfler, L, Boers, R and Timmermans, RMA. 2012.
Refinement and application of a regional atmospheric model for climate scenario calculations of Western Europe . Climate changes Spatial Planning publication: KvR 054/12, ISBN/EAN 978-90-8815-046-3. pp 44. - Meinshausen, M, et al. 2011. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109: 213–241. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z
- Milly, PCD and Dunne, KA. 2017. A Hydrologic Drying Bias in Water-Resource Impact Analyses of Anthropogenic Climate Change. J. Am. Water Resour. As., 53: 822–838. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12538
- Min, E, Hazeleger, W, Van Oldenborgh, G and Sterl, A. 2013. Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models. Environ. Res. Lett., 8:
014 011 . DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014011 - Mishra, AK and Singh, VP. 2010. A review of drought concepts. J. Hydrol., 391: 202–216. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
- Moemken, J and Pinto, JG. 2022. Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part I: Methodology and Application for Present Climate Conditions. Tellus A, 74: 222–235. DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.50
- Naumann, G, Spinoni, J, Vogt, JV and Barbosa, P. 2015. Assessment of drought damages and their uncertainties in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett., 10:
124013 . DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124013 - Palmer, WC. 1965. Meteorological Droughts. U.S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau Research Paper, 45: 1–58.
- Paredes, D, Trigo, RM, García-Herrera, R and Trigo, IF. 2006. Understanding Precipitation Changes in Iberia in Early Spring: Weather Typing and Storm-Tracking Approaches. J. Hydrometeorol., 7: 101–113. DOI: 10.1175/JHM472.1
- Páscoa, P, Gouveia, CM, Russo, A and Trigo, RM. 2017. Drought Trends in the Iberian Peninsula over the Last 112 Years. Advances in Meteorology,
4653126 . DOI: 10.1155/2017/4653126 - Peters, GP, Andrew, RM, Boden, T, Canadell, JG, Ciais, P, Le Quéré, C, Marland, G, Raupach, MR and Wilson, C. 2013. The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C. Nature Clim Change, 3: 4–6. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1783
- Prodhomme, C, Doblas-Reyes, FJ, Bellprat, O and Dutra, E. 2016. Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe. Clim. Dyn., 47: 919–935. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4
- Räisänen, J 2007. How reliable are climate models? Tellus A, 59: 2–29. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00211.x
- Rockel, B, Will, A and Hense, A. 2008. Special issue: regional climate modelling with COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorol Z, 17: 347–348. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0309
- Rodriguez-Puebla, C, Encinas, AH, Nieto, S and Garmendia, J. 1998. Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol., 18: 299–316. DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980315)18:3<;299::AID-JOC247>3.0.CO;2-L
- Samuelsson, P, Jones, C, Willén, U, Ullerstig, A, Gollvik, S, Hansson, U, Jansson, C, Kjellström, E, Nikulin, G and Wyser, K. 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus A, 63: 4–23. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x
- Santos, JA, Belo-Pereira, M, Fraga, H and Pinto, JG. 2016. Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a weather typing approach. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos, 121: 1170–1189. DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024399
- Schwalm, CR, Glendon, S and Duffy, PB. 2020. RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 117: 19656–19657. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2007117117
- Seneviratne, SI, et al. 2012.
Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment . In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Field, CB et al. (eds.). A Special Report of Working Groups I And II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge, UK, and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, pp. 109–230. - Seneviratne, SI, et al. 2013. Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40: 5212–5217. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50956
- Sheffield, J, Wood, E and Roderick, M. 2012. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature, 491: 435–438. DOI: 10.1038/nature11575
- Spinoni, J, Naumann, G, Vogt, JV and Barbosa, P. 2015a. European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach. Global Planet. Change, 127: 50–57. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.012
- Spinoni, J, Naumann, G, Vogt, JV and Barbosa, P. 2015b. The biggest drought events in Europe from 1950–2012. J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 3: 509–524. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.01.001
- Spinoni, J, Naumann, G and Vogt, JV. 2017. Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity. Global Planet. Change, 148: 113–130. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013
- Spinoni, J, Vogt, JV, Naumann, G, Barbosa, P and Dosio, A. 2018. Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe? Int. J. Climatol., 38: 1718–1736. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5291
- Spinoni, J, et al. 2020. Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data. J. Climate, 33: 3635–3661. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
- Stagge, JH, Rizzi, J, Tallaksen, LM and Stahl, K. 2015. Future Meteorological Drought: Projections of Regional Climate Models for Europe. DROUGHT-R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing) Technical Report No. 25.
- Teichmann, C, Bülow, K, Otto, J, Pfeifer, S, Rechid, D, Sieck, K and Jacob, D. 2018. Avoiding Extremes: Benefits of Staying below +1.5°C Compared to +2.0°C and +3.0°C Global Warming. Atmosphere, 9: 115. DOI: 10.3390/atmos9040115
- Touma, D, Ashfaq, M, Nayak, MA, Kao, S-C and Diffenbaugh, NS. 2015. A multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century. J. Hydrol., 526: 196–207. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.011
- Tramblay, Y, et al. 2020. Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios. Earth-Sci. Rev., 210:
103348 . DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348 - Trenberth, K, Dai, A, van der Schrier, G, Jones, PD, Barichvich, J, Briffa, KR and Sheffield, J. 2014. Global warming and changes in drought. Nature Clim. Change, 4: 17–22. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2067
- Trigo, RM and DaCamara, CC. 2000. Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20: 1559–1581. DOI: 10.1002/1097-0088(20001115)20:13<;1559::AID-JOC555>3.0.CO;2-5
- Trigo, RM, Pozo-Vázquez, D, Osborn, TJ, Castro-Díez, Y, Gámiz-Fortis, S and Esteban-Parra, MJ. 2004. North Atlantic Oscillation influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol., 24: 925–944. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1048
- Van Engelen, A, Klein Tank, A, van der Schrier, G and Klok, L. 2008. European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D), Report 2008. KNMI,
https://www.ecad.eu//documents/ECAD_report_2008.pdf . - Vautard, R, Gobiet, A, Sobolowski, S, Kjellström, E, Stegehuis, A, Watkiss, P, Mendlik, T, Landgren, O, Nikulin, G and Teichmann, C. 2014. The European climate under a 2°C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 9:
034006 . DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006 - Vicente-Serrano, SM, Beguería, S and López-Moreno, JI. 2010. A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Climate, 23: 1696–1718. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
- Voldoire, A, et al. 2013. The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation. Clim. Dyn., 40: 2091–2121. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y
- Wilhite, DA, Svoboda, MD and Hayes, MJ. 2007. Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness. Water Resour. Manage, 21: 763–774. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5
- WMO. 2006. Drought monitoring and early warning: concepts, progress and future challenges. WMO-No. 1006, ISBN: 978-92-63-11006-0
- World Economic Forum. 2019.
The Global Risks Report 2019 , 14th Edition. Geneva, Switzerland: World Economic Forum. ISBN: 978-1-944835-15-6 - Yang, X, Wood, EF, Sheffield, J, Ren, L, Zhang, M and Wang, Y. 2018. Bias Correction of Historical and Future Simulations of Precipitation and Temperature for China from CMIP5 Models. J. Hydrometeorol., 19: 609–623. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-17-0180.1
- Zhang, X, Alexander, L, Hegerl, GC, Jones, P, Klein, Tank, A, Peterson, TC, Trewin, B and Zwiers, FW. 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim. Change, 2: 851–870. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.147
- Zscheischler, J, et al. 2020. A typology of compound weather and climate events. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1: 333–347. DOI: 10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.52 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Language: English
Page range: 262 - 279
Submitted on: Nov 16, 2021
Accepted on: Apr 1, 2022
Published on: Apr 25, 2022
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Keywords:
© 2022 Julia Moemken, Benjamin Koerner, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.