Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part II: Future Changes Using Regional Climate Projections Cover

Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part II: Future Changes Using Regional Climate Projections

Open Access
|Apr 2022

References

  1. Barriopedro, D, Fischer, EM, Luterbacher, J, Trigo, RM and Garcia-Herrera, R. 2011. The Hot Summer of 2010: Redrawing the Temperature Record Map of Europe. Science, 322: 220224. DOI: 10.1126/science.1201224
  2. Bentsen, M, et al. 2013. The Norwegian Earth System Model, NorESM1-M – Part 1: Description and basic evaluation of the physical climate. Geosci Model Dev., 6: 687720. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-6-687-2013
  3. Berg, P, Christensen, OB, Klehmet, K, Lenderink, G, Olsson, J, Teichmann, C and Yang, W 2019. Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 19: 957971. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019
  4. Berg, P, Feldmann, H and Panitz, H-J 2012. Bias correction of high resolution regional climate model data. J. Hydrol., 448: 8092. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.04.026
  5. Blauhut, V, Gudmundsson, L and Stahl, K. 2015. Towards pan-European drought risk maps: quantifying the link between drought indices and reported drought impacts. Environ. Res. Lett., 10: 014008. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/1/014008
  6. Byun, H-R and Wilhite, DA. 1999. Objective Quantification of Drought Severity and Duration. J. Climate, 12: 27472756. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1999)012<;2747:OQODSA>2.0.CO;2
  7. Caldeira, MC, Lecomte, X, David, TS, Pinto, JG, Bugalho, MN and Werner, C. 2015. Synergy of extreme drought and shrub invasion reduce ecosystem functioning and resilience in water-limited climates. Sci. Rep., 5: 15110. DOI: 10.1038/srep15110
  8. Cardell, MF, Romero, R, Amengual, A, Homar, V and Ramis, C. 2019. A quantile-quantile adjustment of the EURO-CORDEX projections for temperatures and precipitation. Int. J. Climatol., 39: 29012918. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5991
  9. Christensen, OB, Christensen, JH, Machenhauer, B and Botzet, M. 1998. Very high-resolution regional climate simulations over Scandinavia – Present climate. J Climate, 11: 32043229. DOI: 10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<;3204:VHRRCS>2.0.CO;2
  10. Christensen, JH and Christensen, OB. 2007. A summary of the PRUDENCE model projections of changes in European climate by the end of this century. Clim. Change, 81: 730. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-006-9210-7
  11. Ciais, PH, et al. 2005. Europe-wide reduction in primary productivity caused by the heat and drought in 2003. Nature, 437: 529533. DOI: 10.1038/nature03972
  12. Coll, JR, Aguilar, E and Ashcroft, L. 2017. Drought variability and change across the Iberian Peninsula. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 130: 901916. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-016-1926-3
  13. Collins, WJ, et al. 2011. Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2. Geosci Model Dev, 4: 10511075. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-4-1051-2011
  14. Cook, BI, Ault, TR and Smerdon, JE. 2015. Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Science Advances, 1: e1400082. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.1400082
  15. Cornes, R, van der Schrier, G, van den Besselaar, EJM and Jones, PD. 2018. An Ensemble Version of the E-OBS Temperature and Precipitation Datasets. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos, 123: 93919409. DOI: 10.1029/2017JD028200
  16. Dai, A. 2011. Drought under global warming: a review. WIREs Clim. Change, 2: 4565. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.81
  17. Dai, A. 2013. Increasing drought under global warming in observations and models. Nature Clim. Change, 3: 5258. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1633
  18. Deo, RC, Byun, H-R, Adamowski, JF and Begum, K. 2017. Application of effective drought index for quantification of meteorological drought events: a case study in Australia. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 128: 359379. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-015-1706-5
  19. Ehmele, F, Kautz, L-A, Feldmann, H and Pinto, JG. 2020. Long-term variance of heavy precipitation across central Europe using a large ensemble of regional climate model simulations. Earth Syst. Dynam., 11: 469490. DOI: 10.5194/esd-11-469-2020
  20. Ehmele, F, et al. 2022. Adaptation and application of the large LAERTES-EU regional climate model ensemble for modeling hydrological extremes: A pilot study for the Rhine basin. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 22: 677692. DOI: 10.5194/nhess-22-677-2022
  21. Ehret, U, Zehe, E, Wulfmeyer, V, Warrach-Sagi, K and Liebert, J. 2012. HESS Opinions “Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?”. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 16: 33913404. DOI: 10.5194/hess-16-3391-2012
  22. Esteban-Parra, MJ, Rodrigo, FS and Castro-Díez, Y. 1998. Spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in Spain for the period 1880–1992. Int. J. Climatol., 18: 15571574. DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19981130)18:14<;1557::AID-JOC328>3.0.CO;2-J
  23. Eyring, V, Bony, S, Meehl, GA, Senior, CA, Stevens, B, Stouffer, RJ and Taylor, KE. 2016. Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev., 9: 19371958. DOI: 10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
  24. Fang, G, Yang, J, Chen, Y and Zammit, C. 2015. Comparing bias correction methods in downscaling meteorological variables for a hydrologic impact study in an arid area in China. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 19: 25472559. DOI: 10.5194/hess-19-2547-2015
  25. Feldmann, H, Früh, B, Schädler, G, Panitz, H-J, Keuler, K, Jacob, D and Lorenz, P. 2008. Evaluation of the precipitation for South-western Germany from high resolution simulations with regional climate models. Meteorol. Z., 17: 455465. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0295
  26. Forzieri, G, et al. 2016. Multi-hazard assessment in Europe under climate change. Climatic Change, 137: 105119. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1661-x
  27. Friedlingstein, P, et al. 2019. Global Carbon Budget 2019. Earth Syst Sci Data, 11: 17831838. DOI: 10.5194/essd-11-1783-2019
  28. Giorgetta, MA, et al. 2013. Climate and carbon cycle changes from 1850 to 2100 in MPI-ESM simulations for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5. J Adv Model Earth Syst., 5: 572597. DOI: 10.1002/jame.20038
  29. Giorgi, F, Jones, C and Asrar, GR. 2009. Addressing climate information needs at the regional level: The CORDEX framework. Bulletin – World Meteorological Organization, 58: 175183.
  30. Guerreiro, SB, Kilsby, C and Fowler, HJ. 2017. Assessing the threat of future megadrought in Iberia. Int. J. Climatol, 37: 50245034. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5140
  31. Haberstroh, S, Caldeira, MC, Lobo-do-Vale, R, Martins, JI, Moemken, J, Pinto, JG and Werner, C. 2021. Non-linear plant-plant interactions modulate impact of extreme drought and recovery on a Mediterranean ecosystem. New Phytol., 231: 17841797. DOI: 10.1111/nph.17522
  32. Haylock, MR, Hofstra, N, Klein Tank, AMG, Klok, EJ, Jones, PD and New, M. 2008. A European daily high-resolution gridded data set of surface temperature and precipitation for 1950–2016. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos., 113: D20119. DOI: 10.1029/2008JD010201
  33. Herrera, S, Fernández, J and Gutiérrez, JM. 2016. Update of the Spain02 gridded observational dataset for EURO-CORDEX evaluation: assessing the effect of the interpolation methodology. Int. J. Climatol., 36: 900908. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4391
  34. Hertig, E. 2004. Assessment of Mediterranean precipitation and temperature under increased greenhouse warming conditions. Dissertation, University of Würzburg (in German), urn:ubn:de:bvb:20-opus-8740.
  35. Hirschi, M, Seneviratne, SI, Alexandrov, V, Boberg, F, Boroneant, C, Christensen, OB, Formayer, H, Orlowsky, B and Stepanek, P. 2011. Observational evidence for soil-moisture impact on hot extremes in southeastern Europe. Nature Geosci., 4: 1721. DOI: 10.1038/ngeo1032
  36. Hoerling, M, Eischeid, J, Perlwitz, J, Quan, X, Zhang, T and Pegion, P. 2012. On the increased frequency in Mediterranean Drought. J. Climate, 25: 21462161. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00296.1
  37. Iglesias, A, Garrote, L and Martín-Carrasco, F. 2009. Drought risk management in Mediterranean river basins. Integr. Environ. Assess. Manag., 5: 1116. DOI: 10.1897/IEAM_2008-044.1
  38. IPCC. 2021. Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Masson-Delmotte, V, Zhai, P, Pirani, A, Connors, SL, Péan, C, Berger, S, Caud, N, Chen, Y, Goldfarb, L, Gomis, MI, Huang, M, Leitzell, K, Lonnoy, E, Matthews, JBR, Maycock, TK, Waterfield, T, Yelekçi, O, Yu, R and Zhou, B (eds.). Cambridge University Press. In Press.
  39. Jacob, D, et al. 2012. Assessing the transferability of the regional climate model REMO to different coordinated regional climate downscaling experiment (CORDEX) regions. Atmosphere, 3: 181199. DOI: 10.3390/atmos3010181
  40. Jacob, D, et al. 2014. EURO-CORDEX: New high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research. Reg. Environ. Change, 14: 563578. DOI: 10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2
  41. Kamruzzaman, M, Jang, M-W, Cho, J and Hwang, S. 2019. Future Changes in Precipitation and Drought Characteristics over Bangladesh under CMIP5 Climatological Projections. Water, 11: 2219. DOI: 10.3390/w11112219
  42. Khodayar, S, Sehlinger, A, Feldmann, H and Kottmeier, CH. 2015. Sensitivity of soil moisture initialization for decadal predictions under different regional climatic conditions in Europe. Int. J. Climatol, 35: 18991915. DOI: 10.1002/joc.4096
  43. Kim, D-W and Byun, H-R. 2009. Future pattern of Asian drought under global warming scenario. Theor. Appl. Climatol, 98: 137150. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-008-0100-y
  44. Lee, B-R, Oh, S-B and Byun, H-R. 2015. The characteristics of drought occurrence in North Korea and its comparison with drought in South Korea. Theor. Appl. Climatol, 121: 199209. DOI: 10.1007/s00704-014-1230-z
  45. Liang, X-Z, Kunkel, KE, Meehl, GA, Jones, RG and Wang, JXL. 2008. Regional climate models downscaling analysis of general circulation models present climate biases propagation into future change projections. Geophys. Res. Lett., 35: L08709. DOI: 10.1029/2007GL032849
  46. Maheras, P, Xoplaki, E and Kutiel, H. 1999. Wet and Dry Monthly Anomalies Across the Mediterranean Basin and their Relationship with Circulation, 1860–1990. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 64: 189199. DOI: 10.1007/s007040050122
  47. Maraun, D. 2016. Bias correcting climate change simulations – a critical review. Curr. Clim. Change Rep., 2: 211220. DOI: 10.1007/s40641-016-0050-x
  48. McKee, TB, Doesken, NJ and Kleist, J. 1993. The relationship of drought frequency and duration on timescales. Proceedings of the Eighth Conference on Applied Climatology, 17–22 January 1993, Anaheim, CA.
  49. Meijgaard, E van, Van Ulft, LH, Lenderink, G, de Roode, SR, Wipfler, L, Boers, R and Timmermans, RMA. 2012. Refinement and application of a regional atmospheric model for climate scenario calculations of Western Europe. Climate changes Spatial Planning publication: KvR 054/12, ISBN/EAN 978-90-8815-046-3. pp 44.
  50. Meinshausen, M, et al. 2011. The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Climatic Change, 109: 213241. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z
  51. Milly, PCD and Dunne, KA. 2017. A Hydrologic Drying Bias in Water-Resource Impact Analyses of Anthropogenic Climate Change. J. Am. Water Resour. As., 53: 822838. DOI: 10.1111/1752-1688.12538
  52. Min, E, Hazeleger, W, Van Oldenborgh, G and Sterl, A. 2013. Evaluation of trends in high temperature extremes in north-western Europe in regional climate models. Environ. Res. Lett., 8: 014 011. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/8/1/014011
  53. Mishra, AK and Singh, VP. 2010. A review of drought concepts. J. Hydrol., 391: 202216. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.07.012
  54. Moemken, J and Pinto, JG. 2022. Recurrence of Drought Events Over Iberia. Part I: Methodology and Application for Present Climate Conditions. Tellus A, 74: 222235. DOI: 10.16993/tellusa.50
  55. Naumann, G, Spinoni, J, Vogt, JV and Barbosa, P. 2015. Assessment of drought damages and their uncertainties in Europe. Environ. Res. Lett., 10: 124013. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124013
  56. Palmer, WC. 1965. Meteorological Droughts. U.S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau Research Paper, 45: 158.
  57. Paredes, D, Trigo, RM, García-Herrera, R and Trigo, IF. 2006. Understanding Precipitation Changes in Iberia in Early Spring: Weather Typing and Storm-Tracking Approaches. J. Hydrometeorol., 7: 101113. DOI: 10.1175/JHM472.1
  58. Páscoa, P, Gouveia, CM, Russo, A and Trigo, RM. 2017. Drought Trends in the Iberian Peninsula over the Last 112 Years. Advances in Meteorology, 4653126. DOI: 10.1155/2017/4653126
  59. Peters, GP, Andrew, RM, Boden, T, Canadell, JG, Ciais, P, Le Quéré, C, Marland, G, Raupach, MR and Wilson, C. 2013. The challenge to keep global warming below 2°C. Nature Clim Change, 3: 46. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate1783
  60. Prodhomme, C, Doblas-Reyes, FJ, Bellprat, O and Dutra, E. 2016. Impact of land-surface initialization on sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts over Europe. Clim. Dyn., 47: 919935. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-015-2879-4
  61. Räisänen, J 2007. How reliable are climate models? Tellus A, 59: 229. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2006.00211.x
  62. Rockel, B, Will, A and Hense, A. 2008. Special issue: regional climate modelling with COSMO-CLM (CCLM). Meteorol Z, 17: 347348. DOI: 10.1127/0941-2948/2008/0309
  63. Rodriguez-Puebla, C, Encinas, AH, Nieto, S and Garmendia, J. 1998. Spatial and temporal patterns of annual precipitation variability over the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol., 18: 299316. DOI: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19980315)18:3<;299::AID-JOC247>3.0.CO;2-L
  64. Samuelsson, P, Jones, C, Willén, U, Ullerstig, A, Gollvik, S, Hansson, U, Jansson, C, Kjellström, E, Nikulin, G and Wyser, K. 2011. The Rossby Centre Regional Climate Model RCA3: model description and performance. Tellus A, 63: 423. DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0870.2010.00478.x
  65. Santos, JA, Belo-Pereira, M, Fraga, H and Pinto, JG. 2016. Understanding climate change projections for precipitation over western Europe with a weather typing approach. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos, 121: 11701189. DOI: 10.1002/2015JD024399
  66. Schwalm, CR, Glendon, S and Duffy, PB. 2020. RCP8.5 tracks cumulative CO2 emissions. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A., 117: 1965619657. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2007117117
  67. Seneviratne, SI, et al. 2012. Changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the natural physical environment. In: Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation Field, CB et al. (eds.). A Special Report of Working Groups I And II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge, UK, and New York, USA: Cambridge University Press, pp. 109230.
  68. Seneviratne, SI, et al. 2013. Impact of soil moisture-climate feedbacks on CMIP5 projections: First results from the GLACE-CMIP5 experiment. Geophys. Res. Lett., 40: 52125217. DOI: 10.1002/grl.50956
  69. Sheffield, J, Wood, E and Roderick, M. 2012. Little change in global drought over the past 60 years. Nature, 491: 435438. DOI: 10.1038/nature11575
  70. Spinoni, J, Naumann, G, Vogt, JV and Barbosa, P. 2015a. European drought climatologies and trends based on a multi-indicator approach. Global Planet. Change, 127: 5057. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2015.01.012
  71. Spinoni, J, Naumann, G, Vogt, JV and Barbosa, P. 2015b. The biggest drought events in Europe from 1950–2012. J. Hydrol. Reg. Stud., 3: 509524. DOI: 10.1016/j.ejrh.2015.01.001
  72. Spinoni, J, Naumann, G and Vogt, JV. 2017. Pan-European seasonal trends and recent changes of drought frequency and severity. Global Planet. Change, 148: 113130. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2016.11.013
  73. Spinoni, J, Vogt, JV, Naumann, G, Barbosa, P and Dosio, A. 2018. Will drought events become more frequent and severe in Europe? Int. J. Climatol., 38: 17181736. DOI: 10.1002/joc.5291
  74. Spinoni, J, et al. 2020. Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data. J. Climate, 33: 36353661. DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-19-0084.1
  75. Stagge, JH, Rizzi, J, Tallaksen, LM and Stahl, K. 2015. Future Meteorological Drought: Projections of Regional Climate Models for Europe. DROUGHT-R&SPI (Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing) Technical Report No. 25.
  76. Teichmann, C, Bülow, K, Otto, J, Pfeifer, S, Rechid, D, Sieck, K and Jacob, D. 2018. Avoiding Extremes: Benefits of Staying below +1.5°C Compared to +2.0°C and +3.0°C Global Warming. Atmosphere, 9: 115. DOI: 10.3390/atmos9040115
  77. Touma, D, Ashfaq, M, Nayak, MA, Kao, S-C and Diffenbaugh, NS. 2015. A multi-model and multi-index evaluation of drought characteristics in the 21st century. J. Hydrol., 526: 196207. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.12.011
  78. Tramblay, Y, et al. 2020. Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios. Earth-Sci. Rev., 210: 103348. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103348
  79. Trenberth, K, Dai, A, van der Schrier, G, Jones, PD, Barichvich, J, Briffa, KR and Sheffield, J. 2014. Global warming and changes in drought. Nature Clim. Change, 4: 1722. DOI: 10.1038/nclimate2067
  80. Trigo, RM and DaCamara, CC. 2000. Circulation weather types and their influence on the precipitation regime in Portugal. Int. J. Climatol., 20: 15591581. DOI: 10.1002/1097-0088(20001115)20:13<;1559::AID-JOC555>3.0.CO;2-5
  81. Trigo, RM, Pozo-Vázquez, D, Osborn, TJ, Castro-Díez, Y, Gámiz-Fortis, S and Esteban-Parra, MJ. 2004. North Atlantic Oscillation influence on precipitation, river flow and water resources in the Iberian Peninsula. Int. J. Climatol., 24: 925944. DOI: 10.1002/joc.1048
  82. Van Engelen, A, Klein Tank, A, van der Schrier, G and Klok, L. 2008. European Climate Assessment & Dataset (ECA&D), Report 2008. KNMI, https://www.ecad.eu//documents/ECAD_report_2008.pdf.
  83. Vautard, R, Gobiet, A, Sobolowski, S, Kjellström, E, Stegehuis, A, Watkiss, P, Mendlik, T, Landgren, O, Nikulin, G and Teichmann, C. 2014. The European climate under a 2°C global warming. Environ. Res. Lett., 9: 034006. DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/3/034006
  84. Vicente-Serrano, SM, Beguería, S and López-Moreno, JI. 2010. A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. J. Climate, 23: 16961718. DOI: 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1
  85. Voldoire, A, et al. 2013. The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation. Clim. Dyn., 40: 20912121. DOI: 10.1007/s00382-011-1259-y
  86. Wilhite, DA, Svoboda, MD and Hayes, MJ. 2007. Understanding the complex impacts of drought: A key to enhancing drought mitigation and preparedness. Water Resour. Manage, 21: 763774. DOI: 10.1007/s11269-006-9076-5
  87. WMO. 2006. Drought monitoring and early warning: concepts, progress and future challenges. WMO-No. 1006, ISBN: 978-92-63-11006-0
  88. World Economic Forum. 2019. The Global Risks Report 2019, 14th Edition. Geneva, Switzerland: World Economic Forum. ISBN: 978-1-944835-15-6
  89. Yang, X, Wood, EF, Sheffield, J, Ren, L, Zhang, M and Wang, Y. 2018. Bias Correction of Historical and Future Simulations of Precipitation and Temperature for China from CMIP5 Models. J. Hydrometeorol., 19: 609623. DOI: 10.1175/JHM-D-17-0180.1
  90. Zhang, X, Alexander, L, Hegerl, GC, Jones, P, Klein, Tank, A, Peterson, TC, Trewin, B and Zwiers, FW. 2011. Indices for monitoring changes in extremes based on daily temperature and precipitation data. WIREs Clim. Change, 2: 851870. DOI: 10.1002/wcc.147
  91. Zscheischler, J, et al. 2020. A typology of compound weather and climate events. Nat. Rev. Earth Environ., 1: 333347. DOI: 10.1038/s43017-020-0060-z
DOI: https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.52 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Language: English
Page range: 262 - 279
Submitted on: Nov 16, 2021
Accepted on: Apr 1, 2022
Published on: Apr 25, 2022
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2022 Julia Moemken, Benjamin Koerner, Florian Ehmele, Hendrik Feldmann, Joaquim G. Pinto, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.