Table 1
Drought classification criterion.
| MMFSDI AND SPI VALUES | DROUGHT CLASSIFICATION |
|---|---|
| 2.00 and above | Extremely Wet |
| 1.50 to 1.99 | Very Wet |
| 1.00 to 1.49 | Moderate Wet |
| –0.99 to 0.99 | Near Normal |
| –1.00 to –1.49 | Moderate Drought |
| –1.50 to –1.99 | Severe Drought |
| –2.00 and less | Extremely Drought |
Figure 1
Geographical coverage of the study area and CMIP6 0.5° × 0.5° grid points (black dots).
Table 2
The information of the selected CMIP6 models in this study.
| NUMBER | MODEL NAME | MODELING CENTER | RESOLUTION |
|---|---|---|---|
| (LONGITUDE × LATITUDE) | |||
| 1 | ACCESS-CM2 | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia | 1.875° × 1.25° |
| 2 | ACCESS-ESM1-5 | Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia | 1.875° × 1.2143° |
| 3 | AWI-CM-1-1-MR | Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Germany | 0.9375° × 0.9375° |
| 4 | BCC-CSM2-MR | Beijing Climate Center and China Meteorological Administration, China | 1.125° × 1.125° |
| 5 | CanESM5 | Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada | 2.8125° × 2.8125° |
| 6 | CanESM5-CanOE5 | Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis, Canada | 2.8125° × 2.8125° |
| 7 | CNRM-CM6-1 | National Centre for Meteorological Research and European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, France | 1.40625° × 1.40625° |
| 8 | CNRM-CM6-1-HR | National Centre for Meteorological Research and European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, France | 0.5° × 0.5° |
| 9 | CNRM-ESM2-1 | National Centre for Meteorological Research and European Centre for Research and Advanced Training in Scientific Computation, France | 1.40625° × 1.40625° |
| 10 | EC-Earth3-Veg | EC-Earth consortium, Europe | 0.703125° × 0.703125° |
Figure 2
Spatial distribution fifty random location scattered over Tibet Plateau.
Figure 3
a) Biplots, forecastibility and b) summary of single FPC.
Table 3
Values of Omega against each components.
| COMPONENTS | OMEGA (Ω) |
|---|---|
| ForeC1 | 77.08283 |
| ForeC2 | 64.98184 |
| ForeC3 | 26.62885 |
| ForeC4 | 15.64948 |
| ForeC5 | 10.16605 |
| ForeC6 | 8.119885 |
| ForeC7 | 7.546159 |
| ForeC8 | 7.281088 |
| ForeC9 | 7.117616 |
| ForeC10 | 7.077022 |
| ForeC11 | 6.888564 |
| ForeC12 | 6.882761 |
| ForeC13 | 6.791538 |
| ForeC14 | 6.623308 |
| ForeC15 | 6.611346 |
| ForeC16 | 6.607055 |
| ForeC17 | 6.302802 |
| ForeC18 | 6.256745 |
| ForeC19 | 6.184776 |
| ForeC20 | 6.074139 |
| ForeC21 | 5.896357 |
| ForeC22 | 5.723812 |
| ForeC23 | 5.685728 |
Figure 4
Spatial distribution of Omega (Ω).
Figure 5
Density and qq plot of KCGMD for SPI and MMFSDI at one month time scale.
Table 4
BIC of KCGMD for SPI and MMFSDI.
| TIME SCALES | SPI | MMFSDI |
|---|---|---|
| Scale 1 | –4003.55 | –4357.048 |
| Scale 6 | –8614.13 | –9084.659 |
| Scale 9 | –7977.962 | –8446.784 |
| Scale 12 | –4295.112 | –4548.289 |
| Scale 24 | –5609.977 | –5905.589 |
| Scale 48 | –6740.838 | –6921.417 |
Figure 6
Temporal behaviour of SPI and MMFSDI in various time scale.
Figure 7
Correlation anaysis between SPI and MMFSDI in various time scales.
Table 5
Performance assessment of MMFSDI over SPI.
| TRAINING | TESTING | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TIME SCALES | TECHNIQUES | INDEX | RMSE | MAE | RMSE | MAE |
| Scale 1 | ARIMA | SPI | 0.760 | 0.601 | 0.962 | 0.774 |
| MMFSDI | 0.580 | 0.445 | 0.737 | 0.555 | ||
| MLP | SPI | 0.302 | 0.233 | 1.010 | 0.831 | |
| MMFSDI | 0.191 | 0.145 | 0.752 | 0.588 | ||
| Scale 6 | ARIMA | SPI | 0.474 | 0.341 | 1.089 | 0.885 |
| MMFSDI | 0.229 | 0.172 | 0.655 | 0.491 | ||
| MLP | SPI | 0.163 | 0.112 | 0.650 | 0.540 | |
| MMFSDI | 0.115 | 0.078 | 0.399 | 0.307 | ||
| Scale 9 | ARIMA | SPI | 0.438 | 0.331 | 1.658 | 1.349 |
| MMFSDI | 0.396 | 0.317 | 1.106 | 0.871 | ||
| MLP | SPI | 0.150 | 0.108 | 0.826 | 0.644 | |
| MMFSDI | 0.116 | 0.085 | 0.440 | 0.335 | ||
| Scale 12 | ARIMA | SPI | 0.346 | 0.266 | 0.683 | 0.548 |
| MMFSDI | 0.343 | 0.258 | 1.398 | 1.138 | ||
| MLP | SPI | 0.225 | 0.173 | 1.564 | 1.222 | |
| MMFSDI | 0.223 | 0.171 | 0.941 | 0.631 | ||
| Scale 24 | ARIMA | SPI | 0.227 | 0.173 | 0.497 | 0.450 |
| MMFSDI | 0.241 | 0.179 | 1.167 | 1.000 | ||
| MLP | SPI | 0.163 | 0.125 | 1.339 | 0.903 | |
| MMFSDI | 0.162 | 0.121 | 0.406 | 0.324 | ||
| Scale 48 | ARIMA | SPI | 0.153 | 0.108 | 1.250 | 1.102 |
| MMFSDI | 0.141 | 0.106 | 1.135 | 1.121 | ||
| MLP | SPI | 0.151 | 0.107 | 1.041 | 0.904 | |
| MMFSDI | 0.143 | 0.106 | 0.917 | 0.851 | ||