Probabilistic Assessment of Future Drought Characteristics under the Quality Boosted Regional Drought Index

STATION NAME	LATITUDE (°N)	LONGITUDE (°E)	ALTITUDE (M)
Aksaray	38.3705	33.9987	970
Beysehir	37.6777	31.7463	1141
Cihanbeyli	38.650578	32.92186	973
Eregli	37.5255	34.0485	1046
Isparta	37.7848	30.5679	997
Karaman	37.1932	33.2202	1018
Konya	37.9837	32.574	1031
Nevsehir	38.6163	34.7025	1260
Nigde	37.9587	34.6795	1211

Map of the study site showing nine selected meteorological stations in the Konya Closed Basin located in Turkey.

Temporal representation of selected nine meteorological stations in the Konya Closed Basin located in Turkey.

Table 2

Monthly weights under QBRDI based on data from nine meteorological stations in the Konya Closed Basin, Turkey.

STATIONS	JAN.	FEB.	MAR.	APR.	MAY	JUN.	JUL.	AUG.	SEP.	OCT.	NOV.	DEC.
Aksaray	0.125	0.122	0.115	0.109	0.121	0.121	0.121	0.119	0.117	0.117	0.12	0.121
Beysehir	0.094	0.093	0.104	0.115	0.115	0.117	0.11	0.103	0.098	0.095	0.09	0.085
Cihanbeyli	0.114	0.119	0.115	0.103	0.114	0.115	0.113	0.113	0.113	0.114	0.117	0.12
Eregli	0.118	0.124	0.12	0.114	0.119	0.114	0.117	0.113	0.121	0.121	0.121	0.124
Isparta	0.069	0.085	0.099	0.094	0.086	0.103	0.088	0.087	0.096	0.096	0.087	0.076
Karaman	0.121	0.11	0.111	0.116	0.115	0.115	0.112	0.117	0.118	0.119	0.11	0.122
Konya	0.12	0.116	0.115	0.119	0.116	0.114	0.116	0.116	0.117	0.112	0.12	0.119
Nevsehir	0.116	0.111	0.102	0.111	0.097	0.09	0.106	0.113	0.106	0.107	0.116	0.112
Nigde	0.122	0.12	0.119	0.12	0.117	0.112	0.117	0.119	0.114	0.12	0.119	0.121

[i] Abbreviation: QBRDI, Quality Boosted Regional Drought Index.

Table 3

Validation of the deployed weighting procedure (Ali et al., 2023) using SMA.

COMPARATIVE MEASURES	PROPOSED			SMA
COMPARATIVE MEASURES	MINIMUM	AVERAGE	MAXIMUM	MINIMUM	AVERAGE	MAXIMUM
RMSE	2.618	6.282	8.618	7.333	15.158	27.752
RAE	0.043	0.085	2.266	0.679	1.409	2.712

[i] Abbreviations: RAE, relative absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; SMA, simple model average.

Temporal representation of weights of all nine meteorological stations in the Konya Closed Basin located in Turkey.

Table 4

Evaluating appropriate distribution based on BIC under univariate distribution and K-CGMD at various timescales over single locations.

SCENARIOS	QBRDI
TIMESCALES	UNIVARIATE PROBABILITY MODEL		K-CGMD
Scale 1	Generalized normal	–143.91	–645.13
Scale 3	Johnson SU	–371.36	–694.17
Scale 6	Johnson SB	–336.78	–2608.2
Scale 9	Johnson SU	–73.06	967.636
Scale 12	Weibull	–470.35	–1230.8
Scale 24	Generalized normal	–209.57	–2134.6
Scale 48	4P Beta	–172.36	–235.02

[i] Abbreviations: BIC, Bayesian Information Criterion; QBRDI, Quality Boosted Regional Drought Index.

Temporal dry and wet fluctuation of QBRDI under seven different monthly timescales.

Table 5

Steady-state probabilities for various drought classes under seven different timescales.

TIMESCALES	ED	EW	MD	MW	NN	SD	SW
1	0.023022	0.023022	0.090847	0.090647	0.683453	0.046604	0.044604
3	0.024089	0.023088	0.097352	0.092352	0.682540	0.043290	0.043290
6	0.023598	0.023102	0.093498	0.092408	0.680065	0.044014	0.043316
9	0.024100	0.023155	0.093031	0.091171	0.680164	0.044965	0.043415
12	0.023395	0.023392	0.095105	0.092105	0.681287	0.045860	0.043860
24	0.022324	0.022321	0.097262	0.092262	0.681548	0.047643	0.044643
48	0.023399	0.021836	0.093584	0.087345	0.689404	0.043673	0.040761

[i] Abbreviations: ED, extreme drought; EW, extreme wet; MD, moderate drought; MW, moderate wet; NN, near normal; SD, severe drought; SW, severe wet.

Table 6

Increasing and decreasing trend of drought under seven different monthly timescales.

TIMESCALES	KENDAL Z	SLOPE	P VALUE	SIGNIFICANCE	DIRECTION
1	0.42407789	0.000776753	0.671509	P > 0.10	Increasing
3	0.4530965	0.000812574	0.6504793	P > 0.10	Increasing
6	0.21919571	5.00E–04	0.8264976	P > 0.10	Increasing
9	0.0059095	0.000126628	0.9952849	P > 0.10	Increasing
12	–0.20621246	–0.0007875	0.836625	P > 0.10	Decreasing
24	–0.34809441	–0.00112587	0.7277693	P > 0.10	Decreasing
48	0.97762014	0.003484615	0.3282622	P > 0.10	Increasing

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.16993/tellusa.4066 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

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Language: English

Page range: 240 - 253

Submitted on: Feb 21, 2024

Accepted on: Mar 19, 2024

Published on: Nov 14, 2025

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

Global Warming,

Water Resource,

Quality Boosted Regional Drought Index (QBRDI),

Monotonic Trend

© 2025 Veysi Kartal, Muhammad Ahmad, Olayan Albalawi, Zulfiqar Ali, Saad Sh. Sammen, Miklas Scholz, Aamina Batool, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 77 (2025): Issue 1

Probabilistic Assessment of Future Drought Characteristics under the Quality Boosted Regional Drought Index

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