Skip to main content
Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Determining species expansion and extinction possibilities using probabilistic and graphical models Cover

Determining species expansion and extinction possibilities using probabilistic and graphical models

Open Access
|May 2015

References

  1. Andreone, F., Cadle, J.E., Cox, N., Glaw, F., Nussbaum, R.A., Raxworthy, C.J., Stuart, S.N., Vallan, D. & Vences M. (2005). Species review of amphibian extinction risks in Madagascar: conclusions from the global amphibian assessment. Conserv. Biol., 19(6), 1790-1802. DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2005.00249.x.
  2. Böhm, M., Collen, B., Baillie, J.E., Bowles, P., Chanson, J., Cox, N. et al. (2013). The conservation status of the world’s reptiles. Biol. Conserv., 157, 372-385. DOI :10.1016/j.biocon.2012.07.015.
  3. Bradshaw, W.E., Holzapfel C.M. (2010). Light, time, and the physiology of biotic response to rapid climate change in animals. Annu. Rev. Physiol., 72, 147-166. DOI: 10.1146/annurev-physiol-021909-135837.
  4. Brook, B.W., Akcakaya, H.R., Keith, D.A., Mace, G., Pearson, R.G. & Araujo M.B. (2009). Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change. Biology Letters, 5(6), 723-725. DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2009.0480.
  5. Brooks, T.M., Pimm, S.L. & Collar N.J. (1997). Deforestation predicts the number of threatened birds in insular Southeast Asia. Conserv. Biol., 11(2), 382-394. DOI: 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1997.95493.x.
  6. Brooks, T.M., Pimm, S.L. & Oyugi J.O. (1999). Time lag between deforestation and bird extinction in tropical forest fragments. Conserv. Biol., 13(5), 1140-1150. DOI: 10.1046/j.1523-1739.1999.98341.x.
  7. Bulman, C.R., Wilson, R.J., Holt, A.R., Bravo, L.G., Early, R.I., Warren, M.S. & Thomas C.D. (2007). Minimum viable metapopulation size, extinction debt, and the conservation of a declining species. Ecol. Appl., 17, 1460-1473. DOI: 10.1890/06-1032.1.
  8. Cardillo, M., Mace, G., Gittleman, J.L. & Purvis A. (2006). Latent extinction risk and the future battlegrounds of mammal conservation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 103, 4157-4161. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0510541103.
  9. Cardillo, M., Mace, G.M., Gittleman, J.L., Jones, K.E., Bielby, J. & Purvis A. (2008). The predictability of extinction: biological and external correlates of decline in mammals. Proc. R. Soc. Biol. Sci. Ser. B, 275(1641), 1441-1448. DOI: 10.1098/ rspb.2008.0179.
  10. Colin, I., Sykes, M.T. & Cramer W. (1992). A simulation model for transient effects of climate change on forest landscapes. Ecol. Model., 65, 51-70. DOI: 10.1016/0304-3800(93)90126-D.
  11. Collinge, S.K. (1996). Ecological consequences of habitat fragmentation: implications for landscape architecture and planning. Landsc. Urban Plann., 36, 59-77. doi : 10.1016/S0169-2046(96)00341-6.
  12. Croley, T.J. & North G.R. (1988). Abrupt climate changes and extinction in earth history. Science, 240(4855), 996-1002. DOI: 10.1126/science.240.4855.996.
  13. Davies, T.J., Smith, G.F., Bellstedt, D.U., Boatwright, J.S. & Bytebier B. et al. (2011). Extinction risk and diversification are linked in a plant biodiversity hotspot. PLOS Biology, 9(5), e1000620. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.1000620.
  14. Davis, S.J., Caldeira, K. & Matthews H.D. (2010). Future CO2 emissions and climate change from existing energy infrastructure. Science, 329(5997), 1330-1333. DOI: 10.1126/science.1188566.
  15. De Vos, J.M., Joppa, L.N., Gittleman, J.L., Stephens, P.R. & Pimm S.L. (2015). Estimating the normal background rate of species extinction. Conserv. Biol., 29(2), 452-462. DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12380.
  16. Doxford, S.W. & Freckleton R.P. (2012). Changes in the large-scale distribution of plants extinction, colonization and the effects of climate. J. Ecol., 100, 519-529. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2745.2011.01902.x.
  17. Fordham, D.A., Resit Akcakaya, H., Araujo, M.B., Elith, J., Keith, D.A., Pearson, R., Auld, T.D., Mellin, C., Morgan, J.W., Regan, T.J., Tozer, M., Watts, M.J., White, M., Wintle, B.A., Yates, C. & Brook B.W. (2012). Plant extinction risk under climate change: are forecast range shifts alone a good indicator of species vulnerability to global warming? Global Change Biology, 18, 1357-1371. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02614.
  18. Gilpin, M.E. & Soule M.E. (1986). Minimum viable populations: processes of species extinction. In M.E. Soule (Ed.), Conservation biology (pp. 19-34). Sunderland: Sinauer Associates.
  19. Groom, M.J. & Schumaker N. (1993). Evaluating landscape change: patterns of worldwide deforestation and local fragmentation. In P.M. Kareiva, J.G. Kingsolver & R.B. Huey (Eds.), Biotic interactions and global change (pp. 24-44). Sunderland: Sinauer Associates.
  20. Hobbs, R.J. & Yates C.J. (2003). Impacts of ecosystem fragmentation on planpopulations: generalising the idiosyncratic. Aust. J. Bot., 51 , 471-488. DOI: 10.1071/BT03037.
  21. Hubbell, S.P., He, F., Condit, R., Borda-de-Agua, L., Kellneri, J. & ter Steege H. (2008). How many tree species are there in the Amazon and how many of them will go extinct? Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105(Suppl. 1), 11498-11504. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.0801915105.
  22. Hulme, M. & Jenkins G.J. (1998). Climate change scenarios for the UK. UKCIP Technical Report No. 1. Norwich: Climatic Research Unit.
  23. IUCN (2001). Red List of Threatened Species. IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria version 3.1. Gland: IUCN Species Survival Commission.
  24. IUCN (2009). IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, v2009. iucnredlist.org
  25. Ladle, R.J. (2009). Forecasting extinctions: uncertainties and limitations. Diversity, 1(2), 133-150. DOI:10.3390/d1020133.
  26. Laurance, W.F. (1991). Ecological correlates of extinction proneness in Australian tropical rain forest mammals. Conserv. Biol., 5, 79-89. DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.1991.tb00390.x.
  27. Luck, G.W. (2007). A review of the relationships between human population density and biodiversity. Biol. Rev., 82(4), 607-645. DOI: 10.1111/j.1469-185X.2007.00028.x.
  28. Mace, G.M. & Baillie J.E.M. (2007) The 2010 biodiversity indicators: challenges for science and policy. Conserv. Biol., 21, 1406-1413. DOI: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2007.00830.x.
  29. Matthews, H.D., Gillett, N.P., Stott, P.A. & Zickfeld K. (2009). The proportionality of global warming to cumulative carbon emissions. Nature, 459, 829-833. DOI: 10.1038/nature08047.
  30. McCarty, J.P, Wolfenbarger, L. LaReesa, & Wilson J.A. (2009). Biological impacts of climate change. Chichester: John Wiley & Sons Ltd. DOI: 10.1002/9780470015902.a0020480.
  31. Miller, K. & Tangley L. (1991). Trees of life: saving tropical forests and their biological wealth. Boston: Beacon Press.
  32. Nijs I. & Impens I. (2000). Biological diversity and probability of local extinction of ecosystems. Funct. Ecol., 14, 46-54. DOI: 10.1046/j.1365-2435.2000.00394.x.
  33. Pearson, R.G., Dawson T.P. (2003). Predicting the impacts of climate change on the distribution of species: are bioclimate envelope models useful? Glob. Ecol. Biogeogr., 12, 361-371. DOI: 10.1046/j.1466-822X.2003.00042.x.
  34. Price, S.A. & Gittleman J.L. (2007). Hunting to extinction: biology and regional economy influence extinction risk and the impact of hunting in artiodactyls. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 274(1620), 1845-1851. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2007.0505.
  35. Purvis, A., Cardillo, M., Grenyer, R. & Collen B. (2005). Correlates of extinction risk: phylogeny, biology, threat and scale. In A. Purvis, J.L. Gittleman & T. Brooks (Eds.), Phylogeny and conservation (pp. 295-316). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  36. Reynolds, J.D. (2003). Life histories and extinction risk. In T.M. Blackburn & K.J. Gaston (Eds.), Macroecology: concepts and consequences (pp. 195-217). Oxford: Blackwell.
  37. Reynolds, J.D., Dulvy, N.K., Goodwin, N.B. & Hutchings J.A. (2005). Biology of extinction risk in marine fishes. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B, 272(1579), 2337-2344. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2005.3281.
  38. Rosenzweig, M.L. (1995). Species diversity in space and time. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
  39. Skidmore, A. (Ed.). (2004). Environmental modelling with GIS and remote sensing. CRC Press.
  40. Sodhi, N.S., Brook, B.W. & Bradshaw C.J.A. (2009). Causes and consequences of species extinctions. In S.A.Levin (Ed.), Princeton guide to ecology (pp. 514-520). Princeton: Princeton University Press.
  41. Solow, A.J. (2005). Inferring extinction from a sighting record. Math. Biosci., 195, 47-55. doi : 10.1016/j.mbs.2005.02.001.
  42. Szabo, J.K., Khwaja, N., Garnett, S.T. & Butchart S.H. (2012). Global patterns and drivers of avian extinctions at the species and subspecies level. PLOS One, 7(10), e47080. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0047080.
  43. Wilcox, B.A. & Murphy D.D. (1985). Conservation strategy: the effects of fragmentation on extinction. Am. Nat., 125: 879-887. DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2009.02110.x.
  44. Williams, M.R., Lamont, B.B. & Henstridge J.D. (2009). Species-area functions revisited. J. Biogeogr., 36, 1994-2004. http:// www.jstor.org/stable/2461453.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/eko-2015-0012 | Journal eISSN: 1337-947X | Journal ISSN: 1335-342X
Language: English
Page range: 111 - 120
Published on: May 29, 2015
Published by: Slovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Landscape Ecology
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

© 2015 Rajesh Chaturvedi, P. Rama Chandra Prasad, published by Slovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Landscape Ecology
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 3.0 License.