Fig. 1
List of variables used in regressions
| Variables | Definition | Source |
|---|---|---|
| debt_ppg | External public and publicly guaranteed debt, in percent of GDP | Joint External Debt Hub |
| bonds_ppg | and public and publicly guaranteed bonds in percent of GDP | Joint External Debt Hub |
| banks_ppg debt_png | the amounts of public and publicly guaranteed bank loans in percent of GDP private, non-guaranteed external debt, in percent of GDP | Joint External Debt Hub Joint External Debt Hub |
| bonds_png | private non-guaranteed bonds | Joint External Debt Hub |
| banks_png | private, non-guaranteed bank loans | Joint External Debt Hub |
| growth | GDP growth rate | World Bank, World Development Indicators database |
| infla | inflation | World Bank, World Development Indicators database |
| trade | trade openness | World Bank, World Development Indicators database |
| shdebt_res | the ratio of short term total external debt to reserves | World Bank, World Development Indicators database |
| ers | exchange rate stability index | Aizenman et al. (2008) |
Determinants of the probability of public sector default
| VARIABLES | (1) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| debt_ppg | 0.00473*** | 0.00309*** | 0.00175** | ||
| (0.00130) | (0.000879) | (0.000855) | |||
| debt_png | -0.0469** | ||||
| (0.0199) | |||||
| debt_png _1 | 0.992*** | ||||
| (0.239) | |||||
| debt_png _2 | -0.207*** | ||||
| (0.0576) | |||||
| bonds_ppg | 0.0348* | 0.0295 | |||
| (0.0205) | (0.0188) | ||||
| banks_ppg | 0.0686*** | 0.0811*** | |||
| (0.0125) | (0.0111) | ||||
| bonds_png | -0.852*** | -0.642** | |||
| (0.322) | (0.319) | ||||
| bonds_png_1 | -0.000458 | ||||
| (0.000333) | |||||
| bonds_png_2 | -1.121** | ||||
| (0.497) | |||||
| banks_png | -0.0316 | 0.000372 | 0.0177 | ||
| (0.0208) | (0.0129) | (0.0111) | |||
| growth | -0.0340* | -0.0225 | -0.0335** | -0.0510*** | -0.0448*** |
| (0.0175) | (0.0178) | (0.0148) | (0.0139) | (0.0120) | |
| Infla | -0.00105*** | -0.00171*** | -0.00165*** | -0.000267 | -0.000180 |
| (0.000392) | (0.000458) | (0.000387) | (0.000262) | (0.000219) | |
| Trade | -0.00550 | 0.00157 | -0.00816** | -0.00224 | -0.00472 |
| (0.00584) | (0.00596) | (0.00366) | (0.00357) | (0.00437) | |
| shdebt_res | -4.80e-05 | -6.43e-05 | -7.31e-05 | -5.61e-06 | -5.62e-06 |
| (5.31e-05) | (5.75e-05) | (5.08e-05) | (9.16e-06) | (7.75e-06) | |
| Ers | -0.828** | -0.707* | -0.716** | -0.537* | -0.738** |
| (0.382) | (0.395) | (0.306) | (0.313) | (0.331) | |
| Constant | -2.706*** | -2.399*** | -3.227*** | ||
| (0.294) | (0.383) | (0.520) | |||
| Observations | 1,987 | 1,987 | 3,873 | 3,873 | 3,873 |
| Country fixed effects | Yes | Yes | No | No | No |
| Best powers | 0,5; 1 | -2; 0.5 |