Maximum River Runoff in Poland Under Climate Warming Conditions

Wiktoria Brzezińska; Dariusz Wrzesiński

doi:10.14746/quageo-2025-0006

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Maximum River Runoff in Poland Under Climate Warming Conditions

Quaestiones Geographicae

Volume 44 (2025): Issue 1 (March 2025)

By: Wiktoria Brzezińska and Dariusz Wrzesiński

Open Access

|Mar 2025

Figures & Tables

The range and trend of changes in air temperatures from 1951 to 2020 and in the period before (1951–1988) and during the warming (1988–2020) according to Wrzesiński and Brzezińska (2023), modified.

The location of water gauge stations on rivers studied in Poland (based on data from IMGW-PIB; numbering in accordance with Appendix 1).

Trends in changes of maximum daily discharge in a hydrological year against average maximum specific runoff from 1951 to 2020.

Trends in changes of maximum daily seasonal discharge against the average maximum specific runoff in four seasons in 1951–2020.

Percent share of trends with a defined statistical significance (p) in analysed series of monthly, seasonal and annual maximum discharge from 1951 to 2020.

Changes in average maximum runoff values [%] during the 1988–2020 warming period relative to the 1951–1988 period and their statistical significance (p).

Changes in seasonal average maximum runoff values [%] during the warming period of 1988–2020 relative to the 1951–1988 period and their statistical significance (p).

Percent share of positive and negative differences in average monthly, seasonal and annual maximum discharge during the warming period of 1988–2020 relative to 1951–1988 and their statistical significance (p).

Dendrogram of gauges grouping based on 12 monthly values of the changes in the average maximum specific runoff and the plot of the linkage distance. Note: gauge ID codes in accordance with Appendix 1.

Locations of water gauges grouped based on changes in the monthly average maximum specific runoff during the warming period of 1988–2020.

The scope of changes in average maximum specific runoff (MHq) in the warming period after the 1988 in individual groups, as derived from the grouping presented in Figure 9.

Inventory of rivers and water gauge cross sections and basic hydrological data from 1951 to 2020 after Wrzesinski 2016, 2021, modified (Note: Mq – mean specific runoff; MLq – mean low specific runoff; *Types of river regime: 1 –nival poorly developed, 2–nival moderately developed, 3 –nival strongly developed, 4 – nival-pluvial, 5 – pluvial-nival. Statistically significant change at: * p<0.05, ** p<0.01, *** p<0.001).

ID	River	Water gauge	Latitude	Longitude	Catchment area	Mean specific runoff Mq^1951–2020	Mean high specific runoff MHq^1951–2020	Mean low specific runoff MLq_1951–2020	River Regime*	Mean high specific runoff MHq		Test of change MHq_1988–2020 – MHq_1951–1988
			Latitude	Longitude	Catchment area	Mean specific runoff Mq^1951–2020	Mean high specific runoff MHq^1951–2020	Mean low specific runoff MLq_1951–2020	River Regime*	1951–1988	1988–2020
			[°]		[km²]	[dm³ s⁻¹ km⁻²]			[–]	[dm³ s⁻¹ km⁻²]
1	Odra	Chałupki	18.33	49.92	4666	8.95	82.12	2.02	4	82.13	80.52	0.11
2	Odra	Racibórz-Miedonia	18.23	50.12	6744	9.54	80.60	2.36	4	77.76	82.53	0.34
3	Odra	Scinawa	16.44	51.41	29584	5.99	24.02	2.17	4	25.11	22.48	0.76
4	Odra	Cigacice	15.61	52.03	40106	5.41	18.94	2.13	2	19.64	18.07	0.64
5	Odra	Połęcko	14.89	52.05	47370	5.30	16.88	2.21	2	17.48	16.13	0.63
6	Odra	Słubice	14.56	52.35	53600	5.52	16.29	2.35	2	17.28	15.12	1.21
7	Odra	Gozdowice	14.32	52.76	109729	4.66	10.76	2.22	2	11.3	10.2	1.08
8	Sumina	Nędza	18.31	50.16	94.4	6.12	67.18	1.93	4	75.45	56.67	1.64
9	Nysa Kłodzka	Bystrzyca Kłodzka	16.65	50.29	260	14.80	189.86	2.46	4	174.09	208.3	1.02
10	Nysa Kłodzka	Kłodzko	16.66	50.44	1084	11.57	113.74	3.17	4	104.53	123.71	0.85
11	Nysa Kłodzka	Nysa	17.34	50.48	3276	8.83	48.10	1.99	4	51.37	43.79	0.55
12	Nysa Kłodzka	Skorogoszcz	17.67	50.76	4514	7.92	43.73	2.17	4	49.61	36.39	1.4
13	Bystrzyca Dusznicka	Szalejów Dolny	16.6	50.42	175	11.99	118.41	4.33	2	123.67	112.24	0.61
14	Scinawka	Tłumaczów	16.44	50.55	256	8.87	111.80	2.19	2	110.97	112.45	0.06
15	Scinawka	Gorzuchów	16.57	50.49	511	8.71	122.88	2.40	4	151.28	88.52	2.51*
16	Biała Głucho-łaska	Głuchołazy	17.38	50.32	283	17.19	162.11	5.60	4	168.72	150.77	0.33
17	Bystrzyca	Krasków	16.58	50.92	683	6.53	90.31	1.11	4	94	84.04	0.4
18	Piława	Mościsko	16.58	50.78	291	5.47	73.34	1.03	4	79.47	64.66	1
19	Strzegomka	Łażany	16.49	50.95	356	6.28	68.49	2.26	4	81.99	51.49	2.06*
20	Barycz	Osetno	16.46	51.63	4579	3.22	14.68	0.35	3	16.08	13.17	1.48
21	Bóbr	Zagań	15.32	51.62	4254	8.74	46.54	2.97	4	53.16	38.8	1.66
22	Kamienica	Barcinek	15.6	50.94	97.2	12.36	165.20	1.72	2	153.57	176.19	0.51
23	Kwisa	Nowogrodziec	15.4	51.2	736	9.73	93.96	2.60	4	100.97	85.37	0.85
24	Czarny Potok	Mirsk	15.38	50.99	55.9	15.68	225.55	2.91	4	233.86	213.7	0.44
25	Czerna Wielka	Zagań	15.29	51.61	896	4.72	22.59	1.58	2	26.45	18.02	2.06*
26	Warta	Działoszyn	18.87	51.11	4088	5.89	22.22	2.77	2	24.27	19.6	1.67
27	Warta	Sieradz	18.74	51.6	8140	5.43	18.81	2.60	2	21.15	15.97	2.43*
28	Warta	Poznań-Most Rocha	16.95	52.4	25126	3.95	11.39	1.59	2	13.68	8.75	3.64***
29	Warta	Skwierzyna	15.5	52.6	31268	3.91	10.33	1.66	2	12.27	8.18	3.44**
30	Warta	Gorzów Wielko-polski	15.25	52.73	52186	3.94	8.64	1.92	2	9.81	7.38	2.92**
31	Oleśnica	Niechmirów	18.76	51.39	592	4.02	29.98	0.95	3	36.11	23	2.48*
32	Grabia	Grabno	18.98	51.46	811	5.08	34.39	1.35	3	38.19	29.58	1.86
33	Ner	Dąbie	18.82	52.08	1712	5.76	22.38	1.44	2	25.76	18.54	3.21**
34	Prosna	Mirków	18.16	51.32	1255	3.99	26.71	0.94	2	32.94	19.56	3.75***
35	Prosna	Piwonice	18.11	51.73	2938	3.78	19.83	1.03	2	23.44	15.65	3.03**
36	Prosna	Bogusław	17.95	51.9	4304	3.62	18.59	0.90	2	22.23	14.38	3.16**
37	Niesób	Kuźnica Skakawska	18.13	51.28	246	3.93	30.25	0.95	3	36.15	23.28	2.5*
38	Ołobok	Ołobok	18.07	51.64	447	3.51	25.12	0.56	3	27.46	22.44	1.5
39	Mogilnica	Konojad	16.53	52.15	663	2.45	13.05	0.25	3	15.44	10.92	1.99
40	Wełna	Pruśce	17.1	52.77	1130	2.93	9.28	0.68	3	11.17	7.48	2.37*
41	Flinta	Ryczywół	16.84	52.82	276	2.35	11.33	0.36	3	12.74	10.02	1.83
42	Sama	Szamotuły	16.58	52.61	395	2.64	13.59	0.42	3	17.39	10.39	2.33*
43	Noteć	Nowe Drezdenko	15.84	52.85	15970	4.54	8.03	2.47	2	8.53	7.57	1.89
44	Mała Noteć	Gębice	18.03	52.6	182	3.23	8.71	0.81	2	10.73	6.67	2_.99**
45	Gąsawka	Znin	17.72	52.85	148	3.45	8.88	0.80	3	10.3	7.34	2.15*
46	Gwda	Piła	16.74	53.15	4704	5.71	11.30	3.08	1	11.86	10.73	1.53
47	Drawa	Drawsko Pomorskie	15.81	53.53	609	6.63	17.11	2.61	2	18.82	15.26	2.75**
48	Ina	Goleniów	14.83	53.56	2163	5.88	15.76	2.54	2	16.55	14.94	1.06
49	Rega	Trzebiatów	15.26	54.06	2628	7.59	19.99	3.48	2	20.29	19.75	0.41
50	Parsęta	Tychówko	16.07	53.9	896	9.17	37.00	4.42	2	38.69	35	1.2
51	Wieprza	Stary Kraków	16.61	54.44	1519	10.37	26.89	6.09	1	26.88	26.88	0
52	Słupia	Słupsk	17.03	54.47	1450	10.73	21.47	6.03	1	21.14	21.75	0.56
53	Łupawa	Smołdzino	17.21	54.66	805	10.33	19.89	6.67	1	18.33	21.62	2.24*
54	Wisła	Skoczów	18.79	49.8	297	20.33	329.98	2.18	4	315.92	341.59	0.47
55	Wisła	Goczałkowice	18.99	49.93	738	12.08	142.09	1.40	5	145.39	135.27	0.36
56	Wisła	Jawiszowice	19.12	49.97	971	13.51	143.98	2.43	5	142.19	143.08	0.03
57	Wisła	Bieruń Nowy	19.19	50.06	1748	12.11	105.48	3.06	4	110.2	98.19	0.65
58	Wisła	Jagodniki	20.68	50.2	12058	10.60	85.32	3.87	4	84.91	84.4	0.04
59	Wisła	Szczucin	21.08	50.33	23901	9.75	72.43	3.37	4	72.54	71.15	0.13
60	Wisła	Sandomierz	21.75	50.67	31846	9.03	64.86	3.02	4	67.4	60.88	0.74
61	Wisła	Zawichost	21.86	50.81	50732	8.30	53.20	2.65	4	56.42	48.81	1.25
62	Wisła	Annopol	21.83	50.89	51518	8.30	51.89	2.68	4	54.17	48.6	0.92
63	Wisła	Dęblin	21.83	51.56	68234	7.23	37.81	2.59	4	38.44	36.65	0.43
64	Wisła	Toruń	18.61	53.01	181033	5.31	18.96	2.02	2	20.64	16.92	2.26*
65	Wisła	Tczew	18.8	54.1	194376	5.30	16.83	2.16	2	17.8	15.6	1.48
66	Iłownica	Czechowice-Dzie-dzice	18.99	49.91	194	15.53	280.63	2.66	5	280.49	276.73	0.07
67	Soła	Oświęcim	19.22	50.04	1386	15.00	217.87	2.19	4	211.85	220.41	0.25
68	Skawa	Sucha Beskidzka	19.61	49.74	468	16.11	278.35	2.68	4	239.3	318.73	1.46
69	Skawa	Wadowice	19.51	49.88	836	14.74	211.23	2.62	4	195.77	225.01	0.94
70	Raba	Proszówki	20.43	50	1470	11.31	216.76	2.24	4	221.95	206.76	0.41
71	Dunajec	Krościenko	20.43	49.44	1580	20.13	216.22	4.94	5	219.8	208.3	0.37
72	Dunajec	Nowy Sącz	20.69	49.63	4341	14.99	176.01	3.57	4	176.37	171.93	0.15
73	Poprad	Muszyna	20.89	49.34	1514	11.60	120.53	2.84	4	114.92	124.57	0.55
74	Poprad	Stary Sącz	20.66	49.57	2071	12.07	130.75	3.02	4	132.36	126.38	0.29
75	Biała	Koszyce Wielkie	20.95	50	957	9.21	207.34	1.35	4	217.84	191.74	0.66
76	Nida	Brzegi	20.41	50.74	2259	5.62	42.04	2.05	2	46.51	36.23	1.67
77	Nida	Pińczów	20.52	50.51	3352	5.33	33.55	1.96	2	39.7	25.99	2.96**
78	Czarna Nida	Tokarnia	20.45	50.77	1216	5.43	54.19	1.94	2	57.88	49.02	0.96
79	Czarna	Połaniec	21.28	50.43	1354	4.73	58.81	1.52	3	77.41	36.18	4.34***
80	Wisłoka	Zółków	21.46	49.73	581	12.20	235.40	1.05	4	211.26	260.34	1.41
81	Ropa	Klęczany	21.22	49.7	483	12.90	249.96	2.66	4	234.54	263.99	0.72
82	Brzeźnica	Brzeźnica	21.49	50.11	484	6.74	132.28	1.53	4	145.56	113.93	1.38
83	San	Lesko	22.32	49.47	1614	17.60	148.82	3.64	4	149.42	147.91	0.07
84	San	Przemysl	22.77	49.78	3686	14.11	131.75	2.88	4	140.58	120.18	1.14
85	San	Jarosław	22.7	50.02	7041	9.91	79.45	2.53	4	87.39	69.57	1.67
86	San	Radomyśl	21.93	50.67	16824	7.66	46.92	2.32	4	49.07	43.89	1.06
87	Osława	Zagórz	22.27	49.51	505	16.14	254.87	1.56	4	234.36	277.31	1.21
88	Wiar	Krówniki	22.82	49.77	789	8.01	167.62	1.03	4	158.96	174.8	0.46
89	Wisznia	Nienowice	22.92	49.94	1185	5.66	83.74	0.95	4	98.66	66.04	2.13*
90	Wisłok	Krosno	21.77	49.69	596	10.39	132.14	1.44	4	128.34	135.73	0.46
91	Wisłok	Zarnowa	21.82	49.88	1427	9.11	107.57	1.52	4	100.65	115.05	1.14
92	Wisłok	Rzeszów	22.02	50.04	2086	8.34	91.88	1.30	4	83.99	100.03	1.39
93	Wisłok	Tryńcza	22.55	50.16	3516	7.22	62.19	1.66	4	60.3	63.81	0.5
94	Mleczka	Gorliczyna	22.49	50.08	529	5.49	92.89	0.79	4	85.06	100.17	0.86
95	Tanew	Harasiuki	22.47	50.48	2034	6.01	37.01	2.42	2	44.17	28.17	3.22**
96	Kamienna	Wąchock	21.02	51.08	476	6.11	62.81	1.55	2	68.27	55.43	1.62
97	Wieprz	Zwierzyniec	22.97	50.61	405	5.08	17.45	2.77	1	19.58	14.89	1.69
98	Wieprz	Krasnystaw	23.18	50.99	3001	4.12	16.46	2.06	2	19.72	12.54	1.97
99	Wieprz	Lubartów	22.64	51.5	6364	3.54	11.69	1.67	2	14.23	8.61	2.27*
100	Wieprz	Kośmin	22	51.57	10231	3.59	11.98	1.57	2	14.4	9.05	2.72**
101	Bystrzyca	Sobianowice	22.69	51.3	1265	3.98	16.48	2.06	2	18.26	14.22	1.15
102	Pilica	Przedbórz	19.88	51.09	2536	5.90	27.00	2.23	2	32.24	20.53	2.8**
103	Pilica	Nowe Miasto	20.57	51.61	6717	5.29	21.96	2.33	2	26.41	16.49	3.45***
104	Pilica	Białobrzegi	20.95	51.66	8664	5.09	19.91	2.24	2	24.68	14.08	4.36***
105	Czarna	Dąbrowa	19.97	51.31	941	6.25	48.05	1.79	2	55.24	38.94	2.53*
106	Wolbórka	Zawada	19.94	51.53	616	4.36	38.87	1.19	2	43.39	33.32	1.66
107	Drzewiczka	Odrzywół	20.56	51.52	1004	5.29	36.78	1.76	2	49.48	21.49	4.43***
108	Narew	Narew	23.52	52.92	1978	4.63	21.96	1.28	3	29.82	13.59	5.03***
109	Narew	Suraż	22.96	52.95	3376	4.42	21.18	1.21	3	25.71	16.45	3.02**
110	Narew	Strękowa Góra	22.54	53.22	7181	4.48	17.15	1.38	3	21.37	12.49	3.43**
111	Narew	Wizna	22.41	53.2	14308	4.71	16.71	1.58	3	20.1	13.06	2.87**
112	Narew	Piątnica-Łomża	22.09	53.19	15296	4.79	16.51	1.66	3	19.86	12.86	2.93**
113	Narew	Nowogród	21.86	53.23	20106	4.83	14.99	1.92	3	18.14	11.55	2.97**
114	Narew	Ostrołęka	21.56	53.08	21862	4.94	15.00	1.96	3	18.14	11.52	3.1**
115	Narewka	Narewka	23.73	52.86	590	4.97	32.10	1.10	3	38.67	25.21	3.02**
116	Supraśl	Fasty	23.03	53.18	1817	4.86	18.36	1.98	2	21.2	15.52	2.4*
117	Biebrza	Sztabin	23.12	53.67	846	5.44	31.24	1.44	3	38.72	23.18	3.14**
118	Biebrza	Dębowo	22.93	53.61	2322	5.30	21.80	1.50	3	26.31	16.88	3.13**
119	Biebrza	Osowiec	22.64	53.48	4365	5.07	17.74	1.55	3	20.63	14.46	2.21*
120	Biebrza	Burzyn	22.46	53.27	6900	5.01	18.35	1.67	3	20.82	15.88	1.62
121	Brzozówka	Karpowicze	23.04	53.59	650	4.89	43.14	0.98	3	52.74	32.59	3.29**
122	Pisa	Ptaki	21.79	53.39	3562	5.76	10.62	3.13	1	11.56	9.61	2.32*
123	Pisa	Dobrylas	21.87	53.28	4061	5.78	11.59	3.11	2	12.94	10.15	3.24**
124	Rozoga	Myszyniec	21.34	53.39	231	4.92	27.05	0.85	2	32.93	21.5	2.79**
125	Omulew	Krukowo	21.11	53.31	1265	5.39	12.49	2.07	2	14.18	10.63	3.86***
126	Orzyc	Krasnosielc	21.15	53.04	1268	4.51	21.86	0.90	2	25.02	18.41	2.18*
127	Bug	Włodawa	23.57	51.55	14410	3.82	15.57	1.28	3	19.32	11.07	3.32**
128	Bug	Frankopol	22.56	52.41	31336	3.74	12.90	1.30	3	15.84	9.48	3.88***
129	Bug	Wyszków	21.45	52.59	39119	3.89	14.31	1.34	3	17.75	10.44	3.57***
130	Włodawka	Okuninka	23.52	51.52	576	3.70	21.70	0.73	3	25.34	17.51	2.18*
131	Krzna	Malowa Góra	23.47	52.1	3128	3.43	18.11	0.83	3	19.83	16.28	1.51
132	Nurzec	Boćki	23.04	52.65	556	4.25	40.95	0.77	3	50	30.72	2.81**
133	Nurzec	Boćki	23.04	52.65	556	4.25	40.95	0.77	3	50	30.72	2.81**
134	Nurzec	Brańsk	22.82	52.74	1227	4.02	46.77	0.67	3	57.67	35.28	3.44**
135	Liwiec	Łochów	21.68	52.51	2466	4.25	32.71	0.92	3	40.65	23.66	3.28**
136	Rawka	Kęszyce	20.13	52.14	1191	4.02	17.32	1.71	2	20.88	13	2.86**
137	Skrwa	Parzeń	19.54	52.65	1534	3.96	25.48	0.90	3	28.35	22.21	1.3
138	Drwęca	Nowe Miasto Lu-bawskie	19.59	53.42	2725	5.99	12.22	2.87	2	12.79	11.69	1.01
139	Drwęca	Brodnica	19.4	53.26	3526	6.10	11.70	3.17	2	12.29	11.13	1.17
140	Drwęca	Elgiszewo	18.93	53.06	4959	5.51	10.95	2.82	2	11.65	10.19	1.36
141	Wel	Kuligi	19.69	53.43	764	6.54	12.44	3.61	1	13.44	11.28	2.71**
142	Brda	Tuchola	17.9	53.57	2462	7.88	12.29	4.60	1	12.21	12.41	0.3
143	Wda	Czarna Woda	18.09	53.84	940	6.68	11.00	4.07	1	12.31	9.49	5.09***
144	Wierzyca	Brody Pomorskie	18.76	53.86	1544	5.55	13.72	2.79	2	15.54	11.61	3.67***
145	Łyna	Sępopol	21.01	54.27	3647	6.71	25.12	2.57	2	26.19	24.04	0.89
146	Guber	Prosna	21.09	54.23	1568	5.44	33.22	0.85	2	35.09	31.16	1.02
147	Gołdapa	Banie Mazurskie	22.03	54.25	548	8.46	44.39	2.20	3	48.87	39.48	2.26*
148	Czarna Hańcza	Czerwony Folwark	23.12	54.07	454	8.33	13.75	4.68	2	14.92	12.34	2.45*

1 Note: *Types of river regime (Wrzesinski 2016, 2021, modified): 1 –nival poorly developed, 2 –nival moderately developed, 3 –nival strongly developed, 4 –nival-pluvial, 5 –pluvial-nival. Statistically significant change at:

1* p<0.05,

1** p<0.01,

1*** p<0.001.

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DOI: https://doi.org/10.14746/quageo-2025-0006 | Journal eISSN: 2081-6383 | Journal ISSN: 2082-2103 (formerly 0137-477X)

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Language: English

Page range: 85 - 105

Submitted on: Sep 16, 2024

Published on: Mar 15, 2025

Published by: Adam Mickiewicz University

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© 2025 Wiktoria Brzezińska, Dariusz Wrzesiński, published by Adam Mickiewicz University
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 44 (2025): Issue 1 (March 2025)

Maximum River Runoff in Poland Under Climate Warming Conditions

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