A dynamical–system description of precipitation over the tropics and the midlatitudes

Jun-Ichi Yano; Maarten H. P. Ambaum; Helen F. Dacre; Agostino Manzato

doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939

A dynamical–system description of precipitation over the tropics and the midlatitudes

Tellus

Volume 72 (2020): Issue 1

By: Jun-Ichi Yano, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, Helen F. Dacre and Agostino Manzato

Open Access

|Jan 2020

Ambaum, M. H. P. 2010. Significance tests in climate science. J. Clim. 23 , 5927–5932. doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3746.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ambaum, M. H. P. and Novak, L. 2014. A nonlinear oscillator describing storm track variability. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 140 , 2680–2684. doi:10.1002/qj.2352
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Arakawa, A. and Schubert, W. H. 1974. Interaction of a cumulus cloud ensemble with the large-scale environment, Part I. J. Atmos. Sci. 31, 674–701. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1974)031<;0674:IOACCE>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Barkiđija, S. and Fuchs, Ž. 2013. Precipitation correlation between convective available potential energy, convective inhibition and saturation fraction in middle latitudes. Atmos. Res. 124 , 170–180. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2012.12.010
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Brown, R. G. and Zhang, C. 1997. Variability of midtropospheric moisture and its effect on cloud–top height distribution during TOAG COARE. J. Atmos. Sci. 54 , 2760–2774. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<;2760:VOMMAI>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ciesielski, P. E. , Hartten, L. and Johnson, R. H. 1997. Impacts of merging profiler and rawinsonde winds on TOGA COARE analyses. J. Atmos. Oceanic Technol. 14 , 1264–1279. doi:10.1175/1520-0426(1997)014<;1264:IOMPAR>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ciesielski, P. E. , Johnson, R. H. , Haertel, P. T. and Wang, J. 2003. Corrected TOGA COARE sounding humidity data: impact on diagnosed properties of convection and climate over the warm pool. J. Clim. 16 , 2370–2384. doi:10.1175/2790.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Dee, D. P. , Uppala, S. M. , Simmons, A. J. , Berrisford, P. , Poli, P. and co-authors. 2011. The ERA–interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137,554–597.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Emanuel, K. A. , Neelin, J. D. and Bretherton, C. S. 1994. On large–scale circulation in convective atmospheres. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 120 , 1111–1143. doi:10.1002/qj.49712051902
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Feudale, L. and Manzato, A. 2014. Cloud-to-ground lightning distribution and its relationship with orography and anthropogenic emissions in the Po valley. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol. 53 , 2651–2670. doi:10.1175/JAMC-D-14-0037.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Glinton, M. R. , Gray, S. L. , Chagnon, J. M. and Morcrette, C. J. 2017. Modulation of precipitation by conditional symmetric instability release. Atmos. Res. 185 , 186–201. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.10.013
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Gray, S. L. , Martínez–Alvarado, O. , Baker, L. H. and Clark, P. A. 2011. Conditional symmetric instability in stingjet storms. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137 , 1482–1500. doi:10.1002/qj.859
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hawcroft, M. K. , Shaffrey, L. C. , Hodges, K. I. and Dacre, H. F. 2012. How much Northern Hemisphere precipitation is associated with extratropical cyclones? Geophys. Res. Lett. 39 , L24809. doi:10.1029/2012GL053866.
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hawcroft, M. K. , Shaffrey, L. C. , Hodges, K. I. and Dacre, H. F. 2016. Can climate models represent the precipitation associated with extratropical cyclones? Clim. Dyn. 47 , 679–695. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2863-z
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hersbach, H. , Bell, B. , Berrisford, P. , Hirahara, S. , Hornyi, A. and co-authors. 2020. The ERA5 global reanalysis. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 730 , 1999–2049. doi.org/10.1002/qj.3803
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Isotta, F. A. , Frei, C. , Weilguni, V. , Perčec Tadić, M. , Lassègues, P. and co-authors. 2014. The climate of daily precipitation in the Alps: development and analysis of a high-resolution grid dataset from pan-Alpine rain-gauge data. Int. J. Climatol. 34 , 1657–1675. doi:10.1002/joc.3794
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Johnson, R. H. , and P. E. Ciesielski . 2000. Rainfall and radiative heating rates from TOGA–COARE atmospheric budgets. J. Atmos. Sci. 57 , 1497–1514. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2000)057<;1497:RARHRF>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Kållberg, P. 2011. Forecast drift in ERA–Interim . ECMWF, Reading, UK.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Manzato, A. 2003. A climatology of instability indices derived from Friuli Venezia Giulia soundings, using three different methods. Atmos. Res . 67-68 , 417–454. doi:10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00058-9
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
de Leeuw, J. , Methven, J. and Blackburn, M. 2015. Evaluation of ERA–Interim reanalysis precipitation products using England and Wales observations. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 141 , 798–806. doi:10.1002/qj.2395
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Manzato, A. 2005. The use of sounding-derived indices for a neural network short-term thunderstorm forecast. Wea. Forecast. 20 , 896–917. doi:10.1175/WAF898.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Manzato, A. 2007. Sounding-derived indices for neural network based short-term thunderstorm and rainfall forecasts. Atmos. Res. 83 , 349–365. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2005.10.021
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Manzato, A. 2013. Hail in NE Italy: a neural network ensemble forecast using sounding–derived indices. Wea. Forecast. 28 , 3–28. doi:10.1175/WAF-D-12-00034.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Manzato, A. , Cicogna, A. and Pucillo, A. 2016. 6-hour maximum rain in Friuli Venezia Giulia: climatology and ECMWF-based forecasts. Atmos. Res. 169 , 465–484. doi:10.1016/j.atmosres.2015.07.013
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Manzato, A. and Morgan, G. Jr. , 2003. Evaluating the sounding instability with the lifted parcel theory. Atmos. Res. 67-68 , 455–473. doi:10.1016/S0169-8095(03)00059-0
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Mapes, B. E. , Ciesielski, P. E. and Johnson, R. H. 2003. Sampling errors in rawinsondes–array budgets. J. Atmos. Sci. 60 , 2697–2714. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(2003)060<;2697:SEIRB>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Mapes, B. E. , Milliff, R. and Morzel, J. 2009. Composite life cycle of maritime tropical mesoscale convective systems in scatterometer and microwave satellite observations. J. Atmos. Sci. 66 , 199–208. doi:10.1175/2008JAS2746.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Mapes, B. E. , Tulich, S. , Lin, J.-L. and Zuidema, P. 2006. The mesoscale convection life cycle: building block or prototype for large-scale tropical waves? Dyn. Atmos. Oceans 42 , 3–29. doi:10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2006.03.003
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Molinari, J. , Romps, D. M. , Vollaro, D. and Nguyen, L. 2012. CAPE in tropical cyclones. J. Atmos. Sci. 69 , 2452–2463. doi:10.1175/JAS-D-11-0254.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Novak, L. , Ambaum, M. H. P. and Tailleux, R. 2017. Marginal stability and predator-prey behaviour within storm tracks. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 143 , 1421–1433. doi:10.1002/qj.3014
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Pavan, V. , Antolini, G. , Barbiero, R. , Berni, N. , Brunier, F. and co-authors. 2019. High resolution climate precipitation analysis for north-central Italy, 1961–2015. Clim. Dyn. 52 , 3435–3453. doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4337-6
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Pavliotis, G. A. and Stuart, A. M. 2007. Multiscale Methods: Averaging and Homogenization . Springer, Berlin, 307 pp.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Poelman, D. R. , Schulz, W. , Diendorfer, G. and Bernardi, M. 2016. The European lightning location system EUCLID - Part 2: observations. Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci. 16 , 607–616. doi:10.5194/nhess-16-607-2016
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Raymond, D. J. 1995. Regulation of moist convection over the warm tropical oceans. J. Atmos. Sci. 52 , 3945–3959. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<;3945:ROMCOT>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Rennó, N. O. and Ingersoll, A. P. 1996. Natural convection as a heat engine: a theory for CAPE. J. Atmos. Sci. 53 , 572–585. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1996)053<;0572:NCAAHE>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Rickenbach, T. M. and Rutledge, S. A. 1998. Convection in TOGA COARE: horizontal scale, morphology, and rainfall production. J. Atmos. Sci. 55 , 2715–2729. doi:10.1175/1520-0469(1998)055<;2715:CITCHS>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sherwood, S. C. 1999. Convective precursors and predictability in the Tropical Western Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev. 127 , 2977–2991. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<;2977:CPAPIT>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sherwood, S. C. and Wahrlich, R. 1999. Observed evolution of tropical deep convection event and their environment. Mon. Wea. Rev. 127 , 1777–1795. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1999)127<;1777:OEOTDC>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Simmons, A. J. , Willett, K. M. , Jones, P. D. , Thorne, P. W. and Dee, D. P. 2010. Low–frequency variations in surface atmospheric humidity, temperature, and precipitation: inferences from reanalyses and monthly gridded observational data sets. J. Geophys. Res. 115 , D01110. doc:10.1029/2009JD012442.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Smith, R. K. and Montgomery, M. T. 2012. Observations of the convective environment in developing and non-developing tropical distrubances. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138 , 1721–1739. doi:10.1002/qj.1910
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sobel, A. H. , Yuter, S. E. , Bretherton, C. S. and Kiladis, G. N. 2004. Large–scale meteorology of shallow cumulus convection. J. Atmos. Sci. 60 , 1201–1219.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sueki, K. and Niino, H. 2016. Toward better assessment of tornado potential in typhoons: significance of considering entrainment effects for CAPE. Geophys. Res. Lett. 43 , 12,597–604. doi:10.1002/2016GL070349
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yano, J.-I. and Ambaum, M. H. P. 2017. Moist static energy: Definition, reference constants, a conservation law, and effects on buoyancy. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 143 , 2727–2734. doi:10.1002/qj.3121
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yano, J.-I. and Mukougawa, H. 1992. The attractor dimension of a quasi-geostrophic two-layer system. Geophys. Astrophys. Fluid Dyn. 65 , 77–91. doi:10.1080/03091929208225240
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yano, J.-I. and Plant, R. S. 2012a. Finite departure from convective quasi-equilibrium: Periodic cycle and discharge-recharge mechanism. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 138 , 626–637. doi:10.1002/qj.957
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yano, J.-I. and Plant, R. S. 2012b. Interactions between shallow and deep convection under a finite departure from convective quasi-equilibrium. J. Atmos. Sci. 69 , 3463–3470. doi:10.1175/JAS-D-12-0108.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yano, J. I. , Bister, M. , Fuchs, Z. , Gerard, L. , Phillips, V. and co-authors. 2013. Phenomenology of convection-parameterization closure. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13 , 4111–4131. doi:10.5194/acp-13-4111-2013 doi:10.5194/acp-13-4111-2013
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Yano, J.-I. , Chaboureau, J.-P. and Guichard, F. 2005. A generalization of CAPE into potential–energy convertibility. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 131 , 861–875. doi:10.1256/qj.03.188
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zhang, Y. and Klein, S. A. 2010. Mechanism affecting the transition from shallow to deep convection over land: inferences form observations of the diurnal cycle collected at the ARM Southern Great Plains site. J. Atmos. Sci. 67 , 2943–2959. doi:10.1175/2010JAS3366.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Authors

Metrics

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Page range: 1847939 - 1847939

Published on: Jan 1, 2020

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

dynamical system,

precipitation,

column-integrated water vapor,

CAPE,

empirical forecast,

discharge–recharge

© 2020 Jun-Ichi Yano, Maarten H. P. Ambaum, Helen F. Dacre, Agostino Manzato, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 72 (2020): Issue 1