Attractor dimension of time-averaged climate observables: insights from a low-order ocean-atmosphere model
References
-
Baehr
, J., Fröhlich, K., Botzet, M., Domeisen, D. I., Kornblueh, L. and co-authors. 2015. The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the mpi-esm coupled climate model. Clim. Dyn. 44, 2723– 2735. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2399-7. -
Barnston
, A. G.and Livezey, R. E. 1987. Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon. Wea. Rev. 115, 1083– 1126. doi: 10.1175/1520-0493(1987)115<;1083:CSAPOL>2.0.CO;2. -
Bond
, G., Kromer, B., Beer, J., Muscheler, R., Evans, M. N. and co-authors. 2001. Persistent solar influence on north atlantic climate during the holocene. Science, 2130– 2136. doi: 10.1126/science.1065680. -
Buizza
, R.and Palmer, T. 1995. The singular-vector structure of the atmospheric global circulation. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1434– 1456. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<;1434:TSVSOT>2.0.CO;2. -
Cane
, M. A., Zebiak, S. E.and Dolan, S. C. 1986. Experimental forecasts of el nino. Nature, 827. doi: 10.1038/321827a0. -
Carletti
, T.and Galatolo, S. 2006. Numerical estimates of local dimension by waiting time and quantitative recurrence. Phys. A Stat. Mech. Appl. 364, 120– 128. doi: 10.1016/j.physa.2005.10.003. -
Dalcher
, A.and Kalnay, E. 1987. Error growth and predictability in operational ECMWF forecasts. Tellus A Dyn. Meteorol. Oceanogr. 39, 474– 491. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v39i5.11774. -
Eckmann
, J.-P.and Ruelle, D. 1985. Ergodic theory of chaos and strange attractors . In: The Theory of Chaotic Attractors, Springer, New York. pp. 273– 312. -
Faranda
, D., Lucarini, V., Turchetti, G.and Vaienti, S. 2011. Numerical convergence of the block-maxima approach to the generalized extreme value distribution. J. Stat. Phys. 145, 1156– 1180. doi: 10.1007/s10955-011-0234-7. -
Faranda
, D., Messori, G., Alvarez-Castro, M. C.and Yiou, P. 2017a. Dynamical properties and extremes of northern hemisphere climate fields over the past 60 years. Nonlin. Process. Geophys. 24, 713. doi: 10.5194/npg-24-713-2017. -
Faranda
, D., Messori, G.and Yiou, P. 2017b. Dynamical proxies of north atlantic predictability and extremes. Sci. Rep. 7, 41278. doi: 10.1038/srep41278. -
Faranda
, D., Sato, Y., Saint-Michel, B., Wiertel, C., Padilla, V. and co-authors. 2017c. Stochastic chaos in a turbulent swirling flow. Phys. Rev. Lett. 119, 014502. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.119.014502. -
Freitas
, A. C. M., Freitas, J. M.and Todd, M. 2010. Hitting time statistics and extreme value theory. Probab. Theory Relat. Fields, 675– 710. doi: 10.1007/s00440-009-0221-y. -
Goosse
, H. 2015. Climate System Dynamics and Modeling. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. -
Huang
, B., Thorne, P. W., Banzon, V. F., Boyer, T., Chepurin, G. and co-authors. 2017. Extended reconstructed sea surface temperature, version 5 (ersstv5): upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Climate, 8179– 8205. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0836.1. -
Jones
, P., Jonsson, T.and Wheeler, D. 1997. Extension to the north atlantic oscillation using early instrumental pressure observations from gibraltar and south-west iceland. Int. J. Climatol. 17, 1433– 1450. doi: 10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(19971115)17:13<;1433::AID-JOC203>3.0.CO;2-P. -
Lorenz
, E. N. 1982. Atmospheric predictability experiments with a large numerical model. Tellus, 505– 513. -
Lorenz
, E. N. 1969. The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 289– 307. -
Lovejoy
, S., Schertzer, D.and Stanway, J. 2001. Direct evidence of multifractal atmospheric cascades from planetary scales down to 1 km. Phys. Rev. Lett. 86, 5200. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.86.5200. -
Lucarini
, V., Faranda, D.and Wouters, J. 2012. Universal behaviour of extreme value statistics for selected observables of dynamical systems. J. Stat. Phys. 147, 63– 73. doi: 10.1007/s10955-012-0468-z. -
Lucarini
, V., Faranda, D., Freitas, A. C. M., Freitas, J. M., Mark, H. and co-authors. 2016. Extremes and Recurrence in Dynamical Systems. John Wiley & Sons, New York. -
Mann
, M. E., Zhang, Z., Rutherford, S., Bradley, R. S., Hughes, M. K. and co-authors. 2009. Global signatures and dynamical origins of the little ice age and medieval climate anomaly. Science, 1256– 1260. doi: 10.1126/science.1177303. -
Messori
, G., Caballero, R.and Faranda, D. 2017. A dynamical systems approach to studying midlatitude weather extremes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 3346– 3354. -
Nicolis
, C.and Nicolis, G. 1995. From short-scale atmospheric variability to global climate dynamics: toward a systematic theory of averaging. J. Atmos. Sci. 52, 1903– 1913. doi: 10.1175/1520-0469(1995)052<;1903:FSSAVT>2.0.CO;2. -
Palmer
, T. N.and Anderson, D. L. 1994. The prospects for seasonal forecasting–a review paper. QJ. Royal Met. Soc. 120, 755– 793. -
Pedlosky
, J. 2013. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics. Springer Science & Business Media, New York. -
Pouquet
, A.and Marino, R. 2013. Geophysical turbulence and the duality of the energy flow across scales. Phys. Rev. Lett. 111, 234501. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.234501. -
Ragone
, F., Lucarini, V.and Lunkeit, F. 2016. A new framework for climate sensitivity and prediction: a modelling perspective. Clim. Dyn. 46, 1459– 1471. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2657-3. -
Reynolds
, R. W., Smith, T. M., Liu, C., Chelton, D. B., Casey, K. S. and co-authors. 2007. Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J. Climate, 5473– 5496. doi: 10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1. -
Ruelle
, D. 1976. A measure associated with axiom-a attractors. Am. J. Math. 98, 619– 654. doi: 10.2307/2373810. -
Ruelle
, D. 1989. Chaotic Evolution and Strange Attractors, Vol. 1, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. -
Ruelle
, D. 2009. A review of linear response theory for general differentiable dynamical systems. Nonlinearity, 855. doi: 10.1088/0951-7715/22/4/009. -
Trouet
, V., Esper, J., Graham, N. E., Baker, A., Scourse, J. D. and co-authors. 2009. Persistent positive north atlantic oscillation mode dominated the medieval climate anomaly. Science, 78– 80. doi: 10.1126/science.1166349. -
Vannitsem
, S. 2015. The role of the ocean mixed layer on the development of the north atlantic oscillation: a dynamical system’s perspective. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 8615– 8623. -
Vannitsem
, S. 2017. Predictability of large-scale atmospheric motions: Lyapunov exponents and error dynamics. Chaos, 032101. doi: 10.1063/1.4979042. -
Vannitsem
, S.and Ghil, M. 2017. Evidence of coupling in ocean-atmosphere dynamics over the north atlantic. Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 2017– 2026. -
Vannitsem
, S.and Nicolis, C. 1995. Dynamics of fine scale variables versus averaged observables in a simplified thermal convection model. J. Geophys. Res. 100, 16367– 16375. -
Vannitsem
, S.and Nicolis, C. 1998. Dynamics of fine-scale variables versus averaged observables in a T21l3 quasi-geostrophic model. QJ. Royal Met. Soc. 124, 2201– 2226. doi: 10.1002/qj.49712455103. -
Vannitsem
, S., Demaeyer, J., De Cruz, L.and Ghil, M. 2015. Low-frequency variability and heat transport in a low-order nonlinear coupled ocean–atmosphere model. Phys. D Nonlin. Phenom. 309, 71– 85. doi: 10.1016/j.physd.2015.07.006. -
Vinther
, B. M., Jones, P., Briffa, K., Clausen, H., Andersen, K. and co-authors. 2010. Climatic signals in multiple highly resolved stable isotope records from Greenland. Quat. Sci. Rev. 29, 522– 538. doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2009.11.002. -
Young
, L.-S. 2002. What are SRB measures, and which dynamical systems have them?. 108, 733– 754. doi: 10.1023/A:1019762724717.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2018.1554413 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554
Language: English
Page range: 1554413 - 1554413
Published on: Jan 1, 2019
Published by: Stockholm University Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
© 2019 Davide Faranda, Gabriele Messori, Stephane Vannitsem, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.