Impact of high-frequency observations on fog forecasting: a case study of OSSE

Huiqin Hu; Qinghong Zhang; Juanzhen Sun; Chengqing Ruan; Fei Huang; Shaoqing Zhang

doi:10.1080/16000870.2017.1396182

Impact of high-frequency observations on fog forecasting: a case study of OSSE

Tellus

Volume 69 (2017): Issue 1

By: Huiqin Hu, Qinghong Zhang, Juanzhen Sun, Chengqing Ruan, Fei Huang and Shaoqing Zhang

Open Access

|Jan 2017

Abstract

Fog that refers to the concentration of ice or water droplets in the near surface air is an important short-time meteorological phenomenon. As the measure of visibility of air environment, it directly affects societal economic activities and daily lives. As more and more high-frequency observations (observations with short time intervals) become available, understanding how to make full use of such observed data to improve fog forecasting is an important and urgent research topic. Based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model and an observation simulation system experiment (OSSE) framework, this study explores a modified three-dimensional variational (3D-Var) data assimilation (DA) scheme to address the utilization of high-frequency observations on fog forecasting. In the modified 3D-Var scheme, the large-scale analysis constraint (LSAC) method is employed to the WRF 3D-Var. A dense fog event, which occurred in the North of China in 2007, is selected for the case study. Experimental results show that coherently combining high-frequency observational information with large-scale analysis information enables to significantly improve the 3D-Var analyses and the initialized model forecasts of fog coverage, especially over areas with coarse observations. The modified scheme is therefore promising for improving the routine forecasting of coastal sea fog. The optimal DA interval for fog forecasting is also discussed in this study.

References

Ballard , S. , Golding , B. and Smith , R. 1991 . Mesoscale model experimental forecasts of the Haar of Northeast Scotland . Mon. Wea. Rev. 119 , 2107 – 2123 . 10.1175/1520-0493(1991)119<;2107:MMEFOT>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Barker , D. M. , Huang , W. , Guo , Y. R. , Bourgeois , A. J. and Xiao , Q. 2004 . A three-dimensional variational data assimilation system for MM5: implementation and initial results . Mon. Wea. Rev. 132 , 897 – 914 . 10.1175/1520-0493(2004)132<;0897:ATVDAS>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Courtier , P. , Thépaut , J. and Hollingsworth , A. 1994 . A strategy for operational implementation of 4D-Var, using an incremental approach . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 120 , 1367 – 1387 . 10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Dahlgren , P. and Gustafsson , N. 2012 . Assimilating host model information into a limited area model . Tellus 64 , 53 – 66 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Dudhia , J. 1989 . Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model . J. Atmos. Sci. 46 , 3077 – 3107 . 10.1175/1520-0469(1989)046<;3077:NSOCOD>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Fabry , F. and Sun , J. 2010 . For how long should what data be assimilated for the mesoscale forecasting of convection and why? Part I: on the propagation of initial condition errors and their implications for data assimilation . Mon. Wea. Rev. 138 , 242 – 255 . 10.1175/2009MWR2883.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Glickman , T. S. 2000 . Glossary of Meteorology . 2nd ed. Amer , Meteor. Soc. , 855 pp.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Guidard , V. and Fischer , C. 2008 . Introducing the coupling information in a limited area variational assimilation . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 134 , 723 – 735 . 10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hitt , K. J. 1994 . Refining 1970’s land-use data with 1990 population data to indicate new residential development US Geological Survey, Water-Resources Investigations Report, No. 94-4250 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hong , S.-Y. and Lim , J.-O. J. 2006 . The WRF single-moment 6-class microphysics scheme (WSM6) . J. Korean Meteor. Soc. 42 , 129 – 151 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hu , H. , Zhang , Q. , Xie , B. , Ying , Y. , Zhang , J. and co-authors. 2014 . Predictability of an advection fog event over north China. Part I: sensitivity to initial condition differences . Mon. Wea. Rev. 142 , 1803 – 1822 . 10.1175/MWR-D-13-00004.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Hu , H. , Sun , J. and Zhang , Q. 2017 . Assessing the impact of surface and wind profiler data on fog forecasting using WRF 3DVAR: an OSSE Study on a dense fog event over North China . J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. 56 , 1059 – 1081 . 10.1175/JAMC-D-16-0246.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Ingleby , N. B. 2001 . The statistical structure of forecast errors and its representation in The Met. Office Global 3-D variational data assimilation scheme . Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc. 127 , 209 – 231 . 10.1002/(ISSN)1477-870X
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Kain , J. S. 2004 . The Kain–Fritsch convective parameterization: an update . J. Appl. Meteor. 43 , 170 – 181 . 10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<;0170:TKCPAU>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Liang , A. , Zhang , Q. , Liu , K. and Shen , H. 2009a . The 3D-Var data assimilation experiments on a dense fog event over the Central Plain of China . Acta Meteor. Sinica 23 , 149 – 162 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Liang , A. , Zhang , Q. , Shen , H. , Liu , K. , Li , X. and Feng , J. 2009b . The analysis and simulation of an advection fog event in Beijing . J. Appl. Meteor. Sci. 20 , 612 – 621 (in Chinese).
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Mlawer , E. J. , Taubman , S. J. , Brown , P. D. , Iacono , M. J. and Clough , S. A. 1997 . Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres: RRTM, a validated correlated-k model for the longwave . J. Geophys. Res.: Atmos. 102 , 16663 – 16682 . 10.1029/97JD00237
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Muller , M. 2006 . Numerical simulation of fog and radiation in complex terrain , PhD thesis , University of Basel, Stratus 12 , 90 pp.
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Müller , M. , Schmutz , C. and Parlow , E. 2007 . A one-dimensional ensemble forecast and assimilation system for fog prediction . Pure Appl. Geophys. 164 , 1241 – 1264 . 10.1007/s00024-007-0217-4
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Parrish , D. F. and Derber , J. C. 1992 . The national meteorological center's spectral statistical-interpolation analysis system . Mon. Wea. Rev. 120 , 1747 – 1763 . 10.1175/1520-0493(1992)120<;1747:TNMCSS>2.0.CO;2
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Skamarock , W. C. , Klemp , J. B. , Dudhia , J. , Gill , D. O. , Barker , D. M. and co-authors. 2008 . A Description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 3 .
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sugimoto , S. , Crook , N. A. , Sun , J. and Xiao , Q. N. 2009 . An examination of WRF 3DVAR radar data assimilation on its capability in retrieving unobserved variables and forecasting precipitation through observing system simulation experiments . Mon. Wea. Rev. 137 , 4011 – 4029 . 10.1175/2009MWR2839.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sukoriansky , S. , Galperin , B. and Perov , V. 2005 . Application of a new spectral theory of stably stratified turbulence to the atmospheric boundary layer over sea ice . Bound.-Layer Meteor. 117 , 231 – 257 . 10.1007/s10546-004-6848-4
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Sun , J. , Wang , H. , Tong , W. , Zhang , Y. , Lin , C.-Y. and co-authors. 2016 . Comparison of the impacts of momentum control variables on high-resolution variational data assimilation and precipitation forecasting . Mon. Wea. Rev. 144 , 149 – 169 . 10.1175/MWR-D-14-00205.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Vendrasco , E. P. , Sun , J. , Herdies , D. L. and Frederico de Angelis , C. 2016 . Constraining a 3D-Var radar data assimilation system with large-scale analysis to improve short-range precipitation forecast . J. Appl. Meteor. Clim. 55 , 673 – 690 . 10.1175/JAMC-D-15-0010.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zhang , C. L. , Miao , S. G. , Li , Q. C. and Chen , F. 2007 . Impacts of fine-resolution land use information of Beijing on a summer severe rainfall simulation . Chin. J. Geophys. 50 , 1172 – 1182 (in Chinese). 10.1002/cjg2.v50.5
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zhou , B. 2011 . Introduction to a new fog diagnostic scheme . NCEP Office Note 466 , 43 pp. Online at: www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/officenotes/newernotes/on466.pdf
Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zhou , B. and Du , J. 2010 . Fog prediction from a multimodel mesoscale ensemble prediction system . Wea. Forecasting 25 , 303 – 322 . 10.1175/2009WAF2222289.1
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article
Zhou , B. , Du , J. , Gultepe , I. and Dimego , G. 2012 . Forecast of low visibility and fog from NCEP: current status and efforts . Pure Appl. Geophys. 169 , 895 – 909 . 10.1007/s00024-011-0327-x
Open DOI Search in Google Scholar Back to article

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2017.1396182 | Journal eISSN: 3035-9554

Journal RSS Feed

Language: English

Page range: 1396182 - 1396182

Submitted on: Jun 8, 2017

Accepted on: Oct 17, 2017

Published on: Jan 1, 2017

Published by: Stockholm University Press

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

fog,

high-frequency observations,

3D-Var,

LSAC,

OSSE

© 2017 Huiqin Hu, Qinghong Zhang, Juanzhen Sun, Chengqing Ruan, Fei Huang, Shaoqing Zhang, published by Stockholm University Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 69 (2017): Issue 1