Tenure, funding scheme and spatial diffusion of residential retrofit across Great Britain

YEAR	OWNER-OCCUPIED AND PRIVATE RENTAL			SOCIAL HOUSING			SIGNIFICANCE
YEAR	I	P	Z	I	P	Z	SIGNIFICANCE
2012	0.560	0.001	20.0	–0.000	0.146	0.09	Owner only
2013	0.642	0.001	18.2	–0.008	0.465	–0.28	Owner only
2014	0.580	0.001	17.0	–0.005	0.251	–0.11	Owner only
2015	0.714	0.001	21.7	0.233	0.001	12.1	Both
2016	0.725	0.001	23.2	0.299	0.001	10.8	Both
2017	0.467	0.001	14.8	0.109	0.008	8.1	Both
2018	0.512	0.001	17.4	–0.003	0.255	–0.03	Owner only
2019	0.543	0.001	15.9	–0.006	0.087	–0.43	Owner only
2020	0.199	0.001	5.9	–0.007	0.134	–0.25	Owner only
2022	0.087	0.020	3.4	–0.006	0.115	–0.55	Neither
2023	0.476	0.001	13.9	–0.009	0.076	–0.60	Owner only
2024	0.255	0.001	7.6	–0.013	0.054	–0.4	Owner only

[i] Note: Moran’s I was computed using row-standardised Queen contiguity weights across 349 LAs. Significance based on 999 permutation simulations.

Table 2

Within-tenure spatial lag coefficients by technology and scheme type (own-channel β).

	SCHEME	OWNER β	P	SOCIAL β	P	R²U
PV	Market incentive	0.0037***	0.002	0.0062†	0.063	0.20/0.06
PV	Supplier obligation	–0.0008	0.722	–0.0002	0.960	–
WI	Market incentive	0.0114***	<0.001	–0.0023	0.243	–
WI	Supplier obligation	0.0039***	<0.001	0.0028**	0.035	–
HP	Market incentive	–0.0030**	0.016	0.0026	0.215	–
HP	Supplier obligation	–0.0027	0.122	–0.0014	0.542	–

[i] Note: Two-way FE (LA + year), clustered SE by LA, N ≈ 4,600–4,700 (349 LAs × 13 periods). R² (within) shown for PV market incentive models only as illustration. *** p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05; † p < 0.10.

Table 3

Cross-tenure spatial lag coefficients by technology and scheme type.

	SCHEME	OWNER → SOCIAL β	P	SOCIAL → OWNER β	P	ASYMMETRIC?
PV	Market incentive	+0.0017**	0.021	–0.0054***	<0.001	Yes – strong
PV	Supplier obligation	+0.0025	0.313	+0.0016	0.492	No
WI	Market incentive	+0.0024	0.538	–0.0022	0.447	No
WI	Supplier obligation	–0.0010	0.151	+0.0031***	<0.001	Yes – social → owner
HP	Market incentive	–0.0048***	<0.001	–0.0016	0.349	Negative
HP	Supplier obligation	–0.0026†	0.085	–0.0085***	0.001	Negative

[i] Note: Two-way FE (LA + year), clustered SE by LA. Cross-tenure β is the coefficient on the spatial lag of the opposite tenure channel. Bold indicates significance at p < 0.05. *** p < 0.01; ** p < 0.05; † p < 0.10.

Articles in this issue

DOI: https://doi.org/10.66506/essp.7-043-26 | Journal eISSN: 2001-7960

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Language: English

Page range: 30 - 30

Submitted on: Mar 22, 2026

Accepted on: May 17, 2026

Published on: Jul 31, 2026

Published by: European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee)

In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services

Keywords:

building retrofit,

spatial diffusion,

energy performance certificates,

energy policy,

decarbonisation,

tenure

© 2026 Sahar Mirzaie, Zhihao Zhang, Hossein Radmard, published by European Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (eceee)
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Volume 1 (2026): Issue 1