Exploring gaps between actual and perceived support for energy sufficiency policies

Extended abstract 2-253-26

Reductions in global emissions will not happen fast enough if efficiency measures are not complemented with sufficiency measures to reduce energy demand. Public acceptance of such measures will be crucial to implementation. Previous research has shown widespread support for stronger climate policy, but people (including public representatives) systematically underestimate support levels. These perception gaps and “pluralistic ignorance” may contribute to reticence to express support for action.

In the context of climate policy, pluralistic ignorance has been demonstrated with relatively abstract exemplars such as general carbon taxes or green subsidies, or support for concepts like net zero presented to participants without rationale. Perception gaps for specific policies is an important research topic given the importance of perceptions of public support combined with the need for sufficiency.

This study addresses energy sufficiency policy perception gaps in a sample of people in Ireland (N=2,400) using an experimental design that investigates the effect of policy rationale alongside several other factors. Participants rated six policies each (from a pool of 16) on their support, perceived support of others, fairness, effectiveness, and their willingness to share opinions with others.

We demonstrate substantial perception gaps for all but one of 16 policies in the face of widespread support. 13 of 16 policies were supported by more than half the sample, but majority support was only perceived for four. Policy rationale was largely, though not always, unimportant to perception gaps. Whilst participants who were generally supportive of policies were more likely to perceive support among others, they still on average underestimated public support. Oppositional participants were highly likely to overestimate opposition.

At all levels of support, willingness to share views with others was high, though it was highest among those who strongly opposed or supported policies. We thus fail to find evidence that perception gaps may be explained by an unwillingness to share views, perhaps providing hope that pluralistic ignorance would be ameliorated by affording greater opportunities for public discussions. We discuss this and other policy implications – both in terms of which policies are considered and how they are designed and communicated.

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