Exploring climate benefits and grid impacts of district-level electricity self-sufficiency in Sweden

Extended abstract 5-170-26

Ambitious sustainability targets in new urban districts often emphasize annual electricity self-sufficiency. These goals typically rely on rooftop solar photovoltaics (PV) and annual electricity balances, despite seasonal mismatches between solar generation and electricity demand.

This study critically examines the energy system benefits of district-level electricity self-sufficiency in Sweden using Brunnshög, a sustainability-profiled district under development, as a case study. The analysis illustrates the potential and limitations of rooftop solar PV in achieving self-sufficiency and reducing climate impact in a Swedish context where electricity demand peaks in winter when solar generation is very low, domestic electricity production is mainly fossil-free, and urban buildings are primarily heated by district heating. It also explores the implications of high solar integration for local grid planning.

The analysis includes: (1) an assessment of the hourly electricity balance in 2024 using metered PV and grid exchange data to evaluate self-sufficiency at different time resolutions; (2) quantification of climate benefits of local solar generation using hourly emission factors for the regional electricity price area; and (3) interviews with the local grid operator offering insights into planning considerations of large-scale solar integration.

The results show that electricity self-sufficiency in Brunnshög is unattainable with current demand profiles and available rooftop area. Conversely, achieving the annual self-sufficiency target would cause significant surplus generation peaks, potentially creating grid integration challenges. The climate analysis shows that the hours of solar power generation partly coincide with hours of higher fossil-based electricity imports in the regional grid, indicating that local PV can provide climate benefits despite Sweden’s largely fossil-free electricity mix. Overall, this study highlights that annual self-sufficiency goals may conflict with system realities, underscoring the need for integrated planning that accounts for local conditions, temporal dynamics, and interactions with the wider electricity system.

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