Beyond single technologies: multi–low-carbon adoption pathways and policy timing in Great Britain’s households

Extended abstract 2-207-26

Decarbonising households in Great Britain requires the coordinated adoption of multiple low-carbon technologies (LCTs)—including heat pumps, solar PV, battery storage, and electric vehicles (EVs)—alongside building fabric improvements. However, policy and research continue to treat these as isolated decisions. This extended abstract addresses this gap using longitudinal data from the Smart Energy Research Lab (SERL) and the Energy Demand Observatory and Laboratory (EDOL), tracking 3,800 households across three survey waves (2021, 2023, 2025). It examines who adopts LCTs, how technologies are combined over time, and how these patterns align with the UK policy landscape.

The analysis highlights structural inequalities in adoption. LCT ownership is concentrated among higher-income, owner-occupied, and detached households, while lower-income and rented households are significantly less likely to adopt. Lower-income households exhibit the highest rates of non-adoption, revealing a persistent policy paradox: financial eligibility does not translate into uptake. A key constraint is tenure. Lower-income households are overrepresented in the private rented sector, where landlords control investment decisions but often lack incentives to install LCTs. This split-incentive problem limits the effectiveness of demand-side subsidy schemes. An important exception is solar PV, which shows relatively high uptake among the lowest income group, likely reflecting alternative delivery mechanisms through other market channels that enable household adoption.

Longitudinal analysis shows that adoption follows a staged and path-dependent process. Solar PV often acts as an entry point, followed by batteries and EVs. Battery storage shows the fastest growth between 2023 and 2025, primarily among households that already have solar PV, indicating a strong “solar–battery” pathway. EV adoption also increases sharply with income, suggesting inequalities may widen over time. Building fabric improvements are closely linked to technology adoption: households without LCTs have the lowest insulation levels, while heat pump adopters are significantly more likely to have undertaken complementary upgrades.

Comparison with the UK policy landscape reveals two key challenges: misalignment between policy timing and adoption dynamics, and a focus on single technologies rather than combined adoption pathways. Overall, household decarbonisation should be understood as a cumulative, multi-technology process requiring integrated, pathway-based policy approaches.

Read the full abstract.

Download presentation.