Table 1
Respondents with declared religious denomination, religious uprising, and parents’ religious denomination ‘No religion’ (None), affiliated with the National Lutheran Churches (Protestant|Main), and affiliated with minority Protestant churches (Protestant|Other) in the Scandinavian countries in the 1998, 2008 and 2018 rounds of the ISSP Religion survey, extracted from the background variables in the ZA3190, ZA4950_v2-2-0, and ZA7570_v2 data files, respectively.
| 1998 | 2008 | 2018 | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENOMINATION | Denmark | Norway | Sweden | Denmark | Norway | Sweden | Denmark | Norway | Sweden |
| None | 106(10.66%) | 122(9.36%) | 248(25.59%) | 185(11.23%) | 143(15.28%) | 215(24.32%) | 269(19.61%) | 269(26.17%) | 396(27.37%) |
| Protestant|Main | 881(88.63%) | 1156(88.72%) | 680(70.18%) | 1462(88.77%) | 785(83.87%) | 669(75.68%) | 1103(80.39%) | 705(68.58%) | 1010(69.80%) |
| Protestant|Other | 7(0.7%) | 25(1.92%) | 41(4.23%) | 0(0%) | 8(0.85%) | 0(0%) | 0(0%) | 54(5.25%) | 41 (2.83%) |
| Total | 994(100%) | 1303(100%) | 969(100%) | 1647(100%) | 936(100%) | 884(100%) | 1372(100%) | 1028(100%) | 1447(100%) |
Table 2
Response and independent variables (covariates) of the ISSP Religion survey used in the statistical analyses. The numbers within parenthesis for some variables in the ‘Categories’ column indicate the number of levels after application of the transformations described in the text.
| Designation in model | Question label | Categories | % Missing | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1998 | 2008 | 2018 | |||
| BELIEF.GOD | Please indicate which statement comes closest to expressing what you believe about God | 6 | 0.94 | 1.65 | 0.22 |
| DENOMINATION | RELIGGRP – Religious denomination (‘Protestant|Main’ or ‘None’) | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCH | How much confidence do you have in churches and religious organizations? | 5(4) | 5.13 | 5.89 | 4.97 |
| POWER.CHURCHES | Do you think that churches and religious organizations in this country have too much power or too little power? | 5(4) | 12.96 | 12.59 | 14.52 |
| RELRIN | Religion respondent was raised in (‘Protestant|Main’ or ‘None’) | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.52 |
| MOTHER.DENOMINATION | Denomination of respondent’s mother (‘Protestant|Main’ or ‘None’) | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 3.04 |
| FATHER.DENOMINATION | Denomination of respondent’s father (‘Protestant|Main’ or ‘None’) | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4.78 |
| FREQ.ATTEND.11.12 | What about when you were around 11 or 12, how often did you attend religious services then? | 9(5) | 3.22 | 2.58 | 2.76 |
| MOTHER.ATTENDANCE | When you were a child, how often did your mother attend religious services? | 9(5) | 10.36 | 6.24 | 5.16 |
| FATHER.ATTENDANCE | When you were a child, how often did your father attend religious services? | 9(5) | 11.27 | 6.41 | 6.16 |
| SEX | Respondent’s gender | 2 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| AGE | Respondent’s age | – | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| DEGREE | Respondent’s highest education level | 6(5) | 0.71 | 0.90 | 0.72 |
| MARITAL | Respondent’s marital status | 5(4) | 0.65 | 1.04 | 0.83 |
| URBRURAL | Respondent’s living environment | 3 | 2.5 | 0.29 | 0.72 |
| COUNTRY | Country | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ROUND | Year of the ISSP Religion questionnaire round | 3 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Table 3
Summary of the tests for the significance of the linear trends toward disaffiliation and disbelief in God in the Scandinavian countries in the two periods 1998–2008 and 2008–2018, based on the ISSP Religion survey. The records of the respondents that do not believe in a personal God but in a Higher Power were removed, to minimize potential spurious effects due to deviation of BELIEF.GOD from ordinal behavior. In this table, is the test statistic (Agresti, 2010; Kateri, 2014) and p is the corresponding p-value for one-sided tests, where r is the correlation between the scores of the ROUND, and the DENOMINATION and BELIEF.GOD variables. The scores for DENOMINATION are None = 0 and Protestant|Main = 1. Negative values of the test statistic mean decreasing numbers of Protestant|Main and decreasing scores of BELIEF.GOD, respectively.
| 1998–2008 | 2008–2018 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DENOMINATION | M | p | M | p |
| Denmark | –0.392 | 0.347 | –6.408 | <0.001 |
| Norway | –4.149 | <0.001 | –5.841 | <0.001 |
| Sweden | 0.327 | 0.628 | –2.164 | 0.015 |
| BELIEF.GOD – None | ||||
| Denmark | –3.247 | 0.001 | 0.021 | 0.508 |
| Norway | –1.626 | 0.052 | –2.941 | 0.002 |
| Sweden | –0.386 | 0.350 | –4.904 | <0.001 |
| BELIEF.GOD – Protestant|Main | ||||
| Denmark | –0.645 | 0.259 | –7.076 | <0.001 |
| Norway | –2.655 | 0.004 | –2.676 | 0.004 |
| Sweden | –0.035 | 0.486 | –4.564 | <0.001 |
Figure 1
Distributions of belief in God for the affiliated with the Evangelical Lutheran Churches and the religiously unaffiliated in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, in the 1998, 2008 and 2018 rounds of the ISSP Religion survey. The numbers above the bars show the percentages in the total samples for each country and round. The bars represent the following levels, from left (dark gray) to right (light gray): 1 – I don’t believe in God; 2 – I don’t know whether there is a God and no way to find out; 3 – I don’t believe in a personal God, but in a Higher Power of some kind; 4 – I find myself believing in God sometimes, but not at others; 5 – While I have doubts, I feel that I do believe in God; 6 – I know God really exists and I have no doubts about it.
Figure 2
Distributions of confidence in churches and religious institutions for the affiliated with the Evangelical Lutheran Churches and the religiously unaffiliated in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, in the 1998, 2008, and 2018 rounds of the ISSP Religion survey. The numbers above the bars show the percentages in the total samples for each country and round. The bars represent the following levels, from left (dark gray) to right (light gray): 1 – No confidence at all; 2 – Very little confidence; 3 – Some confidence; 4 – A great deal of confidence; 5 – Complete confidence.
Table 4
Two-way contingency tables of BELIEF.GOD ~ DENOMINATION and results of the χ2 tests of independence for Denmark, Norway and Sweden, based on the 1998, 2008 and 2018 rounds of the ISSP religion survey. This table shows the counts, percentages, and standardized residuals within parentheses. The standardized residuals are defined as , where Oij are the observations (counts), Eij are the expected values under the hypothesis of independence, and pi+ and p+j are the row and column marginal probabilities, respectively. Standardized residuals with absolute value ≥ 2 mean significant deviation from independence.
| I don’tbelieve in God | I don’t know whether there is a God, and no way to find out | I don’t believe in a personal God, but in a Higher Power | Find myself believing in God sometimes, but not at others | While I have doubts, I feel that I do believe in God | I know God really exists and have no doubts about it | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denmark | ||||||
| None | 325 | 73 | 93 | 15 | 22 | 20 |
| 8.32% | 1.87% | 2.38% | 0.38% | 0.56% | 0.51% | |
| (23.24) | (–1.83) | (–4.76) | (–5.58) | (–9.73) | (–4.78) | |
| Protestant|Main | 514 | 551 | 889 | 340 | 727 | 335 |
| 13.17% | 14.11% | 22.77% | 8.71% | 18.62% | 8.58% | |
| (–23.24) | (1.83) | (4.76) | (5.58) | (9.73) | (4.78) | |
| Χ2 = 569.56 | df = 5 | P < 0.001 | ||||
| Norway | ||||||
| None | 279 | 91 | 86 | 6 | 19 | 13 |
| 9.18% | 2.99% | 2.83% | 0.2% | 0.62% | 0.43% | |
| (23.51) | (1.61) | (–4.47) | (–5.61) | (–10.47) | (–6.56) | |
| Protestant|Main | 290 | 395 | 687 | 212 | 637 | 325 |
| 9.54% | 12.99% | 22.60% | 6.97% | 20.95% | 10.69% | |
| (–23.51) | (–1.61) | (4.47) | (5.61) | (10.47) | (6.56) | |
| Χ2 = 619.8 | df = 5 | P < 0.001 | ||||
| Sweden | ||||||
| None | 364 | 160 | 187 | 21 | 41 | 21 |
| 12.04% | 5.29% | 6.18% | 0.69% | 1.36% | 0.69% | |
| (16.15) | (–0.15) | (–5.03) | (–5.55) | (–6.65) | (–4.42) | |
| Protestant|Main | 381 | 455 | 739 | 189 | 312 | 154 |
| 12.6% | 15.05% | 24.44% | 6.25% | 10.32% | 5.09% | |
| (–16.15) | (0.15) | (5.03) | (5.55) | (6.65) | (4.42) | |
| Χ2 = 300.28 | df = 5 | P < 0.001 | ||||
Table 5
Odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for the covariates’ significant coefficients (α = 0.05) in the multinomial logistic regression models for Denmark. p-value: * < 0.05; ** < 0.01; *** < 0.001.
| DontKnow | HigherPower | Sometimes | InDoubt | Firm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | – | 0.48* (0.23,0.99) | 0.2** (0.07,0.57) | 0.1*** (0.04,0.24) | 0.02*** (0.01,0.07) |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCH | |||||
| NoneAtAll | 0.28*** (0.19,0.42) | 0.23*** (0.16,0.34) | 0.12*** (0.06,0.23) | 0.07*** (0.04,0.14) | 0.14*** (0.06,0.34) |
| VeryLittle | – | 0.54*** (0.4,0.72) | 0.47*** (0.31,0.7) | 0.28*** (0.19,0.4) | 0.34*** (0.19,0.61) |
| GreatDealOf | – | – | – | 1.92*** (1.36,2.7) | 4.53*** (3,6.82) |
| POWER.CHURCHES | |||||
| TooLittle | – | – | – | – | 4.08** (1.69,9.83) |
| TooMuch | 0.61** (0.45,0.82) | 0.5*** (0.38,0.67) | 0.45*** (0.3,0.69) | 0.43*** (0.3,0.6) | 0.23*** (0.12,0.42) |
| FarTooMuch | 0.5** (0.31,0.8)** | 0.28*** (0.16,0.48) | 0.39* (0.16,0.9) | 0.52* (0.27,1) | – |
| RELRIN | |||||
| Protestant|Main | 2.27*** (1.66,3.1) | 3.17*** (2.29,4.37) | 5.62*** (3.15,10.01) | 9.06*** (5.17,15.86) | 5.27*** (2.5,11.12) |
| FREQ.ATTEND.11.12 | |||||
| Never | – | 0.5*** (0.36,0.67) | 0.59* (0.39,0.89) | 0.36*** (0.25,0.53) | 0.29*** (0.17,0.51) |
| LessThanYearly | – | – | – | 0.7* (0.5,0.98) | – |
| Monthly | – | – | – | – | 3.38*** (1.75,6.55) |
| Weekly | – | – | – | – | 2.77** (1.38,5.56) |
| SEX | |||||
| Female | 1.42** (1.09,1.83) | 2.98*** (2.34,3.79) | 2.22*** (1.62,3.05) | 2.57*** (1.97,3.36) | 2.49*** (1.78,3.49) |
| AGE | – | – | – | 1.010* (1,1.023) | 1.023*** (1.011,1.035) |
| DEGREE | |||||
| None/Lowest | – | – | – | 2.61** (1.49,4.57) | 2.4* (1.2,4.82) |
| AboveLowest | – | – | 2.65** (1.3,5.41) | 2.97*** (1.6,5.51) | 2.9** (1.3,6.5) |
| Secondary | 1.59* (1.09,2.32) | 1.86** (1.29,2.69) | 2.58*** (1.58,4.2) | 2.64*** (1.75,4.01) | 3.04*** (1.77,5.21) |
| AboveSecondary | – | 1.89*** (1.37,2.6) | 1.94** (1.24,3.06) | 2.21*** (1.53,3.2) | 2.03** (1.24,3.32) |
| MARITAL | |||||
| Widowed | – | – | – | – | – |
| Divorced | – | – | – | – | – |
| Single | – | – | – | – | – |
| URBRURAL | |||||
| Urban | 0.74* (0.55,1) | – | 0.65* (0.44,0.94) | – | 0.54** (0.35,0.82) |
| Rural | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROUND | |||||
| 2008 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2018 | – | – | – | – | – |
[i] N = 3309 D = 9725.4 df = 125 AIC = 9975.4 Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 = 0.408.
Reference categories: BELIEF.GOD – I don’t believe in God; CONFIDENCE.CHURCH – Some confidence; POWER.CHURCHES – About the right amount of power; RELRIN – No religion; FREQ.ATTEND.11.12 – Yearly; SEX – Male; DEGREE – University; MARITAL – Married; URBRURAL – Suburb/Small City; ROUND – 1998.
Table 6
Odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for the covariates’ significant coefficients (α =0.05) in the multinomial logistic regression models for Norway. p-value: * < 0.05; ** < 0.01; *** < 0.001.
| Don’t Know | Higher Power | Sometimes | In Doubt | Firm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | – | – | 0.13** (0.04,0.46) | 0.26** (0.1,0.7) | 0.03*** (0.01,0.13) |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCH | |||||
| NoneAtAll | 0.31*** (0.19,0.51) | 0.46** (0.3,0.72) | 0.24*** (0.11,0.52) | 0.17*** (0.09,0.33) | – |
| VeryLittle | – | – | 0.47** (0.28,0.76) | 0.41*** (0.27,0.61) | 0.44** (0.23,0.81) |
| GreatDealOf | – | – | – | 2.04** (1.33,3.13) | 4.1*** (2.49,6.77) |
| POWER.CHURCHES | |||||
| TooLittle | – | – | – | – | 26.93** (3.33,217.5) |
| TooMuch | 0.65* (0.47,0.92) | 0.49*** (0.36,0.67) | 0.47** (0.29,0.74) | 0.32*** (0.22,0.46) | 0.17*** (0.09,0.32) |
| FarTooMuch | 0.46** (0.29,0.72) | 0.22*** (0.14,0.35) | 0.28** (0.13,0.6) | 0.17*** (0.09,0.33) | 0.21*** (0.09,0.51) |
| RELRIN | |||||
| Protestant|Main | 2.53*** (1.67,3.83) | 3.34*** (2.19,5.09) | 4.26** (1.84,9.86) | 5.09*** (2.65,9.77) | 3.27* (1.25,8.56) |
| FREQ.ATTEND.11.12 | |||||
| Never | – | 0.48*** (0.34,0.69) | 0.22*** (0.11,0.42) | 0.33*** (0.21,0.52) | 0.29** (0.14,0.6) |
| LessThanYearly | – | – | – | 0.45*** (0.3,0.68) | 0.5* (0.28,0.88) |
| Monthly | – | – | 2.96* (1.2,7.26) | 4.33*** (2,9.4) | 6.83*** (2.99,15.59) |
| Weekly | – | – | – | – | 4.76*** (2,11.31) |
| SEX | |||||
| Female | – | 1.91*** (1.45,2.51) | 1.84** (1.25,2.71) | 2.39*** (1.76,3.24) | 2.95*** (2.01,4.35) |
| AGE | – | 1.014* (1.003,1.026) | – | 1.021** (1.008,1.034) | 1.035*** (1.019,1.051) |
| DEGREE | |||||
| None/Lowest | – | 1.88* (1.03,3.43) | 2.6* (1.16,5.83) | 2.47** (1.29,4.75) | 2.84** (1.3,6.23) |
| AboveLowest | – | – | 2.64** (1.48,4.71) | 1.86** (1.16,2.99) | 2.19** (1.24,3.89) |
| Secondary | – | – | – | 1.57* (1.07,2.3) | – |
| AboveSecondary | – | – | 2.27* (1.11,4.6) | – | 2.36* (1.16,4.8) |
| MARITAL | |||||
| Widowed | – | – | – | – | – |
| Divorced | 0.56* (0.32,0.98) | – | – | 0.51* (0.3,0.88) | – |
| Single | – | – | – | – | – |
| URBRURAL | |||||
| Urban | – | – | – | – | – |
| Rural | – | – | – | – | 1.55* (1.01,2.4) |
| ROUND | |||||
| 2008 | – | – | – | – | 0.59* (0.37,0.94) |
| 2018 | – | 0.38*** (0.26,0.55) | 0.29*** (0.17,0.5) | 0.28*** (0.19,0.43) | 0.22*** (0.13,0.38) |
[i] N = 2511 D = 7187.8 df = 125 AIC = 7437.8 Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 = 0.448.
Reference categories: BELIEF.GOD – I don’t believe in God; CONFIDENCE.CHURCH – Some confidence; POWER.CHURCHES – About the right amount of power; RELRIN – No religion; FREQ.ATTEND.11.12 – Yearly; SEX – Male; DEGREE – University; MARITAL – Married; URBRURAL – Suburb/Small City; ROUND – 1998.
Table 7
Odds ratios and their 95% confidence intervals for the covariates’ significant coefficients (α = 0.05) in the multinomial logistic regression models for Sweden. p-value: * < 0.05; ** < 0.01; *** < 0.001.
| Don’t Know | Higher Power | Sometimes | In Doubt | Firm | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercept | – | – | 0.28* (0.08,0.96) | 0.3* (0.1,0.89) | 0.12** (0.03,0.5) |
| CONFIDENCE.CHURCH | |||||
| NoneAtAll | 0.41*** (0.27,0.63) | 0.29*** (0.19,0.45) | 0.17*** (0.08,0.39) | 0.14*** (0.07,0.3) | 0.14 (0.04,0.48)** |
| VeryLittle | – | 0.69* (0.5,0.96) | 0.39*** (0.23,0.66) | 0.38*** (0.23,0.6) | 0.39* (0.18,0.83) |
| GreatDealOf | – | – | – | 1.79* (1.12,2.86) | 4.78*** (2.65,8.62) |
| POWER.CHURCHES | |||||
| TooLittle | – | – | – | 3.88* (1.37,11.03) | 12.77*** (4.44,36.73) |
| TooMuch | 0.6** (0.44,0.84) | 0.64** (0.47,0.88) | 0.53* (0.31,0.9) | 0.39*** (0.23,0.65) | 0.28* (0.1,0.74) |
| FarTooMuch | 0.48** (0.28,0.79) | 0.45** (0.27,0.76) | 0.15* (0.03,0.68) | – | – |
| RELRIN | |||||
| Protestant|Main | – | 2.03** (1.34,3.06) | – | – | – |
| FREQ.ATTEND.11.12 | |||||
| Never | 0.56** (0.39,0.79) | 0.31*** (0.22,0.44) | 0.27*** (0.15,0.48) | 0.24*** (0.15,0.41) | 0.17*** (0.08,0.38) |
| LessThanYearly | – | 0.55*** (0.39,0.77) | 0.56* (0.34,0.94) | 0.4*** (0.24,0.64) | 0.25*** (0.12,0.53) |
| Monthly | – | – | – | 2.1* (1.01,4.39) | – |
| Weekly | – | – | – | – | 2.68* (1.14,6.34) |
| SEX | |||||
| Female | – | 1.78*** (1.36,2.33) | – | 1.95*** (1.36,2.78) | 2.14** (1.33,3.46) |
| AGE | – | 1.011* (1.001,1.021) | – | 1.016* (1.002,1.030) | – |
| DEGREE | |||||
| None|Lowest | 2.54** (1.44,4.48) | 2.64*** (1.55,4.52) | 5.78*** (2.82,11.85) | 5.14*** (2.71,9.76) | 5.79*** (2.55,13.16) |
| AboveLowest | – | 1.62** (1.15,2.29) | 2.1** (1.23,3.57) | 2.26*** (1.43,3.56) | 2.02* (1.06,3.85) |
| Secondary | – | – | – | – | 2.91** (1.48,5.72) |
| AboveSecondary | – | – | – | – | – |
| MARITAL | |||||
| Widowed | – | – | – | – | – |
| Divorced | – | 2.1** (1.29,3.43) | – | – | – |
| Single | – | – | – | – | – |
| URBRURAL | |||||
| Urban | – | – | – | – | – |
| Rural | – | – | – | – | – |
| ROUND | |||||
| 2008 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2018 | 0.64* (0.43,0.96) | 0.41*** (0.28,0.59) | – | 0.51** (0.31,0.85) | 0.37** (0.19,0.73) |
[i] N = 2121 D = 5946.5 df = 125 AIC = 6196.5 Nagelkerke pseudo-R2 = 0.393.
Reference categories: BELIEF.GOD – I don’t believe in God; CONFIDENCE.CHURCH – Some confidence; POWER.CHURCHES – About the right amount of power; RELRIN – No religion; FREQ.ATTEND.11.12 – Yearly; SEX – Male; DEGREE – University; MARITAL – Married; URBRURAL – Suburb/Small City; ROUND – 1998.