Have a personal or library account? Click to login
When History Seems to Repeat Itself: Exposure to Perceived Lessons of the Past Influences Predictions About Current Political Events Cover

When History Seems to Repeat Itself: Exposure to Perceived Lessons of the Past Influences Predictions About Current Political Events

Open Access
|Mar 2022

References

  1. Blanchette, I., & Dunbar, K. (2000). How analogies are generated: The roles of structural and superficial similarity. Memory & cognition, 28(1), 108124. DOI: 10.3758/BF03211580
  2. Boller, P. F., Jr., & Story, R. (1984). A More Perfect Union: Documents in U.S. History. Volume II. Houghton Mifflin Company. Text retrieved from https://www.learner.org/workshops/primarysources/coldwar/docs/onkorea.html
  3. Brändström, A., Bynander, F., & Hart, P. T. (2004). Governing by looking back: Historical analogies and crisis management. Public Administration, 82(1), 191210. DOI: 10.1111/j.0033-3298.2004.00390.x
  4. Branscombe, N. R., Warner, R. H., Klar, Y., & Fernández, S. (2015). Historical group victimization entails moral obligations for descendants. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 59, 118129. DOI: 10.1016/j.jesp.2015.04.003
  5. Chaiken, S. (1980). Heuristic versus systematic information processing and the use of source versus message cues in persuasion. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 752. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.752
  6. Fierstein, D. (2008). Kosovo’s declaration of independence: an incident analysis of legality, policy and future implications. Boston University International Law Journal, 26, 417442.
  7. Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human perception and performance, 1(3), 288. DOI: 10.1037/0096-1523.1.3.288
  8. Francis, G. (2014). The frequency of excess success for articles in Psychological Science. Psychonomic bulletin & review, 21(5), 11801187. DOI: 10.3758/s13423-014-0601-x
  9. Gentner, D. (1983). Structure-mapping: A theoretical framework for analogy. Cognitive science, 7(2), 155170. DOI: 10.1016/S0364-0213(83)80009-3
  10. Gentner, D., & Forbus, K. D. (2011). Computational models of analogy. Wiley interdisciplinary reviews: cognitive science, 2(3), 266276. DOI: 10.1002/wcs.105
  11. Ghilani, D., Luminet, O., Erb, H.-P., Flassbeck, C., Rosoux, V., Tames, I., & Klein, O. (2017). Looking forward to the past: An interdisciplinary discussion on the use of historical analogies and their effects. Memory Studies, 10(3), 274285. DOI: 10.1177/1750698017701609
  12. Ghilani, D., Luminet, O., Ernst-Vintila, A., Van der Linden, N., Klein, P., & Klein, O. (2020). Long live the past: A multiple correspondence analysis of people’s justifications for drawing historical analogies between the paris attacks and past events. Journal of Social and Political Psychology, 8(2), 721747. DOI: 10.5964/jspp.v8i2.1212
  13. Gick, M. L., & Holyoak, K. J. (1983). Schema induction and analogical transfer. Cognitive psychology, 15(1), 138. DOI: 10.1016/0010-0285(83)90002-6
  14. Gilovich, T. (1981). Seeing the past in the present: The effect of associations to familiar events on judgments and decisions. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 40(5), 797808. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.40.5.797
  15. Goh, J. X., Hall, J. A., & Rosenthal, R. (2016). Mini Meta-Analysis of Your Own Studies: Some Arguments on Why and a Primer on How. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 10(10), 535549. DOI: 10.1111/spc3.12267
  16. Hayes, A. F. (2012). PROCESS: A versatile computational tool for observed variable mediation, moderation, and conditional process modeling [White paper]. Retrieved from http://www.afhayes.com/public/process2012.pdf
  17. Hilton, D. J., Erb, H.-P., McDermott, M., & Molian, D. J. (1996). Social representations of history and attitudes to European unification in Britain France and Germany. In G. M. Breakwell & E. Lyons (Eds). Changing European Identities: Social psychological analyses of social change. International series in social psychology (pp. 275295). Woburn, MA, US: Butterworth-Heinemann.
  18. Holyoak, K. J., & Koh, K. (1987). Surface and structural similarity in analogical transfer. Memory & cognition, 15(4), 332340. DOI: 10.3758/BF03197035
  19. Houghton, D. P. (1998). Historical analogies and the cognitive dimension of domestic policymaking. Political Psychology, 19(2), 279303. DOI: 10.1111/0162-895X.00105
  20. Indurkhya, B. (1992, October). Predictive analogy and cognition. In International Workshop on Analogical and Inductive Inference (pp. 214231). Berlin, Heidelberg: Springer. DOI: 10.1007/3-540-56004-1_15
  21. IntHout, J., Ioannidis, J. P., & Borm, G. F. (2014). The Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman method for random effects meta-analysis is straightforward and considerably outperforms the standard DerSimonian-Laird method. BMC medical research methodology, 14(1), 25. DOI: 10.1186/1471-2288-14-25
  22. Isocrates. Isocrates with an English Translation in three volumes, by George Norlin, Ph.D., LL.D. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press; London: William Heinemann Ltd. 1980. Retrieved from www.perseus.tufts.edu
  23. Khong, Y. F. (1992). Analogies at War: Korea, Munich, Dien Bien Phu, and the Vietnam Decisions of 1965. Princeton University Press. DOI: 10.1515/9780691212913
  24. Kruglanski, A. W., Crenshaw, M., Post, J. M., & Victoroff, J. (2007). What should this fight be called? Metaphors of counterterrorism and their implications. Psychological Science in the Public Interest, 8(3), 97133. DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6053.2008.00035.x
  25. Lacey, M. (2005, October 20). Look at the Place! Sudan Says, ‘Say Sorry,’ but U.S. Won’t. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com
  26. Lakens, D. (2014). Performing high-powered studies efficiently with sequential analyses. European Journal of Social Psychology, 44, 701710. DOI: 10.1002/ejsp.2023
  27. Lakens, D., & Etz, A. J. (2017). Too true to be bad: When sets of studies with significant and non-significant findings are probably true. Social Psychological and Personality Science. DOI: 10.1177/1948550617693058
  28. Liu, J. H., & Hilton, D. J. (2005). How the past weighs on the present: Social representations of history and their role in identity politics. British Journal of Social Psychology, 44(4), 537556. DOI: 10.1348/014466605X27162
  29. May, E. R. (1973). “Lessons” of the past: the use and misuse of history in American foreign policy. USA: Oxford University Press.
  30. Nestler, S., Blank, H., & Egloff, B. (2010). Hindsight≠ hindsight: Experimentally induced dissociations between hindsight components. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 36(6), 1399. DOI: 10.1037/a0020449
  31. Paris, R. (2002). Kosovo and the metaphor war. Political Science Quarterly, 117(3), 423450. DOI: 10.2307/798263
  32. Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1986). The Elaboration Likelihood Model of Persuasion. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 19, 123205. DOI: 10.1016/S0065-2601(08)60214-2
  33. Perrott, D. A., Gentner, D., & Bodenhausen, G. V. (2005). Resistance is futile: The unwitting insertion of analogical inferences in memory. Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 12(4), 696702. DOI: 10.3758/BF03196760
  34. Read, S. J. (1983). Once is enough: Causal reasoning from a single instance. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45(2), 323. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.45.2.323
  35. Read, S. J. (1984). Analogical reasoning in social judgment: The importance of causal theories. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 46(1), 14. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.46.1.14
  36. Rees, J. H., Allpress, J. A., & Brown, R. (2013). Nie Wieder: Group-Based Emotions for In-Group Wrongdoing Affect Attitudes toward Unrelated Minorities. Political Psychology, 34(3), 387407. DOI: 10.1111/pops.12003
  37. Reuters. (2017, October 3). Serbia accuses world of double standards over Catalonia and Kosovo. Reuters. Retrieved from https://www.reuters.com
  38. Roese, N. J., & Olson, J. M. (1996). Counterfactuals, causal attributions, and the hindsight bias: A conceptual integration. Journal of Experimental Social Psychology, 32(3), 197227. DOI: 10.1006/jesp.1996.0010
  39. Schuman, H., & Rieger, C. (1992). Historical analogies, generational effects, and attitudes toward war. American Sociological Review, 315326. DOI: 10.2307/2096238
  40. Smeekes, A., Van Acker, K., Verkuyten, M., & Vanbeselaere, N. (2014). The legacy of Nazism: Historical analogies and support for the far right. Social Influence, 9(4), 300317. DOI: 10.1080/15534510.2013.855141
  41. Tetlock, P. E. (1998). Social psychology and world politics. In S. Fiske, D. Gilbert, & G. Lindzey (Eds.), Handbook of social psychology (4th Ed.). New York: McGraw-Hill.
  42. United Nations. Department of Public Information (2015, July 20). Security Council, Adopting Resolution 2231 (2015), Endorses Joint Comprehensive Agreement on Iran’s Nuclear Programme. SC/11974. Retrieved from https://www.un.org/press/en/2015/sc11974.doc.htm
  43. Vertzberger, Y. Y. (1986). Foreign policy decisionmakers as practical-intuitive historians: Applied history and its shortcomings. International Studies Quarterly, 30(2), 223247. DOI: 10.2307/2600677
  44. Viechtbauer, W. (2017). metafor: Meta-Analysis package for R (version 1.9.9). R package. Retrieved from https://cran.r-project.org/web/packages/metafor/index.html
  45. Weinstein, N. D. (1980). Unrealistic optimism about future life events. Journal of personality and social psychology, 39(5), 806-820. DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.39.5.806
  46. Woodruff, B. (2015, March 3). Ted Cruz Compares Obama to Neville Chamberlain and Iran to Nazi Germany. Slate. Retrieved from http://www.slate.com/blogs
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/pb.1075 | Journal eISSN: 0033-2879
Language: English
Submitted on: Apr 3, 2021
|
Accepted on: Feb 18, 2022
|
Published on: Mar 16, 2022
Published by: Ubiquity Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2022 Djouaria Ghilani, Olivier Luminet, Olivier Klein, published by Ubiquity Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.