Figure 1
Structural AR-CLP model of longitudinal effects between ethnic identity and ethnonationalism (EI and EN), perception of realistic and symbolic intergroup threat (RT and ST), and perception of intergroup anxiety (IA).
Note. All paths that we tested within the framework of four nested models are depicted. M1 (dotted lines) represent the reference stability model, M2 (solid lines) represent the assumed causality model, M3 (dashed lines) represent the reverse causality model, and finally, the full reciprocal causality model (M4) is obtained by including all the paths from M1 to M3. T1 = first measurement point, T2 = second measurement point. Circles represent constructs (latent variables). Paths from two covariates at T1, sex and school type (elementary or high school), to constructs at T2 are not depicted for clarity but are included in all analyses.
Table 1
Descriptive statistics for the total sample, and separately for context and status for both time points.
| MEASUREMENT POINT | VARIABLE | CONTEXT | STATUS | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOTAL SAMPLE n = 852 | POST-CONFLICT n = 360 | NON-CONFLICT n = 492 | MAJORITY n = 485 | MINORITY n = 367 | ||
| M (SD) | M (SD) | M (SD) | M (SD) | M (SD) | ||
| T1 | Ethnic identity | 4.13 (0.869) | 4.28 (0.835) | 4.02 (0.876) | 4.14 (0.860) | 4.12 (0.880) |
| Ethnonationalism | 2.43 (1.113) | 2.57 (1.183) | 2.33 (1.048) | 2.43 (1.113) | 2.43 (1.115) | |
| Realistic threat | 2.50 (0.966) | 2.74 (1.036) | 2.32 (0.871) | 2.39 (0.914) | 2.64 (1.014) | |
| Symbolic threat | 2.28 (1.061) | 2.79 (1.045) | 1.90 (0.904) | 2.14 (1.022) | 2.47 (1.083) | |
| Intergroup anxiety | 1.80 (0.716) | 1.94 (0.767) | 1.70 (0.658) | 1.78 (0.693) | 1.82 (0.746) | |
| T2 | Ethnic identity | 4.02 (0.939) | 4.26 (0.872) | 3.84 (0.948) | 4.07 (0.943) | 3.95 (0.930) |
| Ethnonationalism | 2.30 (1.121) | 2.47 (1.152) | 2.17 (1.082) | 2.31 (1.153) | 2.29 (1.079) | |
| Realistic threat | 2.51 (1.029) | 2.80 (1.051) | 2.30 (0.961) | 2.43 (1.013) | 2.62 (1.041) | |
| Symbolic threat | 2.19 (0.996) | 2.61 (0.968) | 1.88 (0.896) | 2.05 (0.960) | 2.37 (1.014) | |
| Intergroup anxiety | 1.79(0.708) | 1.89 (0.754) | 1.72 (0.664) | 1.79 (0.702) | 1.79 (0.716) | |
[i] Note. M and SD refer to manifest variables. T1 = first measurement point; T2 = second measurement point. The range of scores on all scales is from 1 to 5.
Table 2
Intercorrelation of the research variables for both time points.
| VARIABLE | 1. | 2. | 3. | 4. | 5. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Ethnic identity | – | .40** | .01 | .12** | .07 |
| 2. Ethnonationalism | .44** | – | .17** | .29** | .32** |
| 3. Realistic threat | –.02 | .18** | – | .41** | .20** |
| 4. Symbolic threat | .07* | .23** | .48** | – | .48** |
| 5. Intergroup anxiety | .001 | .22** | .29** | .48** | – |
[i] Note. *p < .05; **p < .01. First measurement results (T1) below diagonal, second measurement results (T2) above diagonal.
Table 3
Cross-lagged model fit and comparison of alternative models.
| MODEL | SCALED χ2 | df | p | RMSEA [90% CI] | SRMR | CFI | COMPARED MODELS | SCALED Δχ2 | ΔDF | Δχ2 Cr. | p |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17277.692 | 818 | <.001 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 1 | 1299.762 | 686 | <.001 | 0.034 [0.031; 0.037] | 0.050 | 0.964 | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2 | 1281.934 | 680 | <.001 | 0.034 [0.031; 0.037] | 0.046 | 0.964 | 1–2 | 17.83 | 6 | 12.59 | .007* |
| 3 | 1260.171 | 680 | <.001 | 0.033 [0.030; 0.036] | 0.043 | 0.966 | 1–3 | 39.59 | 6 | 12.59 | <.001* |
| 4 | 1244.530 | 674 | <.001 | 0.033 [0.030; 0.036] | 0.040 | 0.966 | 1–4 | 55.23 | 12 | 21.03 | <.001* |
| 2–4 | 37.40 | 6 | 12.59 | <.001* | |||||||
| 3–4 | 15.64 | 6 | 12.59 | .02* |
[i] Note. The final model is in italic. Models: 0 = null; 1 = autoregressive; 2 = assumed CL paths; 3 = reverse CL paths; 4 = reciprocal causation. Scaled χ2 = value with Yuan–Bentler correction, Δ = difference in parameters between two nested models, Δχ2 Cr. = boundary value above which the difference between compared models is statistically significant at a p < .05 level for corresponding degrees of freedom (Δdf).
Table 4
Stability and cross-lagged effects in reciprocal causation AR-CLP Model (N = 852).
| MODEL | AR PATH | B | β | CL PATH | B | β |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reciprocal causation | EIT1 → EIT2 | 0.703* | 0.644* | EIT1 → RTT2 | 0.107 | 0.085 |
| ENT1 → ENT2 | 0.571* | 0.564* | EIT1 → STT2 | 0.012 | 0.009 | |
| RTT1 → RTT2 | 0.745* | 0.675* | EIT1 → IAT2 | 0.018 | 0.019 | |
| STT1 → STT2 | 0.568* | 0.611* | ENT1 → RTT2 | –0.048 | –0.056 | |
| IAT1 → IAT2 | 0.518* | 0.547* | ENT1 → STT2 | 0.092* | 0.105* | |
| ENT1 → IAT2 | 0.064 | 0.100 | ||||
| RTT1 → EIT2 | –0.051 | –0.053 | ||||
| RTT1 → ENT2 | 0.003 | 0.002 | ||||
| STT1 → EIT2 | 0.105* | 0.135* | ||||
| STT1 → ENT2 | 0.090 | 0.084 | ||||
| IAT1 → EIT2 | 0.006 | 0.005 | ||||
| IAT1 → ENT2 | 0.240* | 0.159* |
[i] Note. *Statistically significant path – 95% confidence interval does not include zero to two decimals. Effects of covariates were included in all analyses as controls. AR = autoregressive path (stability coefficient), B = unstandardized regression coefficient, β = standardized regression coefficient, CL = cross-lagged path, EI = ethnic identity, EN = ethnonationalism, RT = realistic intergroup threat, ST = symbolic intergroup threat, IA = intergroup anxiety. T1 = first measurement point, T2 = second measurement point.