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Tweeted Anger Predicts County-Level Results of the 2016 United States Presidential Election Cover

Tweeted Anger Predicts County-Level Results of the 2016 United States Presidential Election

Open Access
|May 2019

Abstract

In the aftermath of the 2016 United States presidential election, experts and journalists speculated that angry voters had supported the unexpected winner Donald Trump. The present study used a sample of 148 million tweets posted by U.S. citizens from across 1,347 counties, classified with regard to emotional content, to predict the election results at county level. As expected, Donald Trump received more support in counties where people tweeted more anger and negative emotions, even when various county characteristics and conservative vote choice in the preceding presidential election were controlled. These findings might be an outcome of emotional resonance—voters being attracted by political appeals that match their emotions—because Trump used more anger and negative emotion words in his campaign than the other presidential candidates in 2012 and 2016. The findings suggest that negative emotions played a critical role in the 2016 presidential election.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/irsp.256 | Journal eISSN: 2397-8570
Language: English
Submitted on: Jan 28, 2019
Accepted on: Mar 29, 2019
Published on: May 3, 2019
Published by: Ubiquity Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2019 Katharina Bernecker, Michael Wenzler, Kai Sassenberg, published by Ubiquity Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.