Figure 1
This panel of figures presents the observed (black dots) and projected (fan plot) age-standardized prevalence rate (per 100,000 residents) in Brazil. The overall rate is reported in Panel A, while Panels B and C represent the results for males and females, respectively. The line in the fan plot represents the median with the edges corresponding to the 25th and 75th percentile. The figure also presents the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) (with 95% confidence interval) for the projected period (2022–2050).
Table 1
The age-standardized projected prevalence rates across Brazil.
| YEAR AND LOCATION | AGE-STANDARDIZED PREVALENCE RATE | EAPC | AGE-STANDARDIZED PREVALENCE RATE | EAPC | AGE-STANDARDIZED PREVALENCE RATE | EAPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRAZIL | OVERALL | MALES | FEMALES | |||
| 2022 | 1495.5 (1487.4, 1503.7) | –0.20 (–0.20, –0.19) | 1298.0 (1290.5, 1305.6) | –0.04 (–0.04, –0.03) | 1692.1 (1682.7, 1701.5) | –0.33 (–0.34, –0.32) |
| 2050 | 1418.5 (1056.0, 1781.1) | 1287.0 (942.6, 1631.4) | 1545.7 (1144.5, 1946.8) | |||
| Central West | ||||||
| 2022 | 1502.5 (1492.8, 1512.1) | –0.22 (–0.23, –0.21) | 1294.9 (1285.4, 1304.3) | –0.06 (–0.07, –0.05) | 1709.1 (1697.4, 1720.8) | –0.34 (–0.36, –0.33) |
| 2050 | 1415.4 (1025.6, 1805.1) | 1274.1 (897.9, 1650.4) | 1557.2 (1113.9, 2000.5) | |||
| North | ||||||
| 2022 | 1398.3 (1388.8, 1407.9) | –0.06 (–0.07, 0.05) | 1252.3 (1243.2, 1261.4) | 0.03 (0.03, 0.03) | 1580.7 (1569.2, 1592.2) | –0.19 (–0.21, –0.18) |
| 2050 | 1377.2 (985.6, 1768.9) | 1262.8 (889.5, 1636.2) | 1501.0 (1056.4, 1945.6) | |||
| Northeast | ||||||
| 2022 | 1470.5 (1462.0, 1479.0) | –0.14 (–0.14, –0.14) | 1270.8 (1262.8, 1278.9) | 0.09 (0.08, 0.09) | 1663.4 (1653.3, 1673.5) | –0.33 (–0.33, –0.32) |
| 2050 | 1414.2 (1040.7, 1787.6) | 1302.2 (940.1, 1664.4) | 1519.5 (1104.2, 1934.8) | |||
| South | ||||||
| 2022 | 1529.2 (1520.1, 1538.4) | –0.36 (–0.38, –0.34) | 1328.0 (1319.2, 1336.8) | –0.18 (–0.19, –0.16) | 1727.1 (1716.2, 1737.9) | –0.51 (–0.54, –0.48) |
| 2050 | 1387.8 (1015.3, 1760.3) | 1268.9 (905.5, 1632.3) | 1503.8 (1093.1, 1914.6) | |||
| Southeast | ||||||
| 2022 | 1521.8 (1513.1, 1530.4) | –0.20 (–0.21, –0.19) | 1317.2 (1309.1, 1325.3) | –0.09 (–0.09, –0.08) | 1721.5 (1711.5, 1731.5) | –0.29 (–0.30, –0.28) |
| 2050 | 1442.1 (1065.7, 1818.5) | 1288.7 (934.4, 1642.9) | 1591.6 (1170.1, 2013.1) | |||
[i] This table presents the projected median (25th and 75th quartile) age-standardized prevalence rate for rheumatic heart disease in 2022 and 2050 (first and last years of the projected period) for Brazil and its five constituent regions. For each group, we have also reported the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Confidence intervals for EAPC were calculated using bootstrap.
Table 2
The age-standardized projected disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across Brazil.
| YEAR AND LOCATION | AGE-STANDARDIZED DALYS RATE | EAPC | AGE-STANDARDIZED DALYS RATE | EAPC | AGE-STANDARDIZED DALYS RATE | EAPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BRAZIL | OVERALL | MALES | FEMALES | |||
| 2022 | 103.1 (101.9, 104.2) | –1.17 (–1.22, –1.11) | 87.3 (86.2, 88.4) | –1.30 (–1.34, –1.25) | 118.4 (117.1, 119.8) | –1.04 (–1.11, –0.97) |
| 2050 | 74.6 (35.9, 113.3) | 61.0 (31.6, 90.3) | 88.9 (38.2, 139.5) | |||
| Central West | ||||||
| 2022 | 102.9 (101.7, 104.1) | –1.09 (–1.10, –1.08) | 86.8 (85.6, 88.0) | –1.09 (–1.09, –1.08) | 118.7 (117.0, 120.4) | –1.08 (–1.10–1.07) |
| 2050 | 75.8 (41.0, 110.5) | 63.9 (36.3, 91.5) | 87.5 (40.3, 134.8) | |||
| North | ||||||
| 2022 | 91.1 (90.0, 92.2) | –1.09 (–1.11, –1.07) | 80.3 (79.2, 81.4) | –0.98 (–1.00, –0.96) | 102.1 (100.8, 103.4) | –1.04 (–1.06, –1.03) |
| 2050 | 67.3 (35.4, 99.1) | 61.1 (30.6, 91.7) | 76.3 (42.0, 110.6) | |||
| Northeast | ||||||
| 2022 | 101.8 (100.5, 103.2) | –2.18 (–2.25, –2.10) | 87.6 (86.2, 89.1) | –2.18 (–2.24, –2.12) | 115.9 (114.6, 117.3) | –2.10 (–2.19, –2.00) |
| 2050 | 55.5 (29.1, 81.9) | 47.7 (24.6, 70.8) | 64.7 (33.0, 96.4) | |||
| South | ||||||
| 2022 | 103.2 (101.9, 104.5) | –0.53 (–0.57, –0.48) | 87.9 (86.7, 89.1) | –0.66 (–0.69, –0.63) | 118.2 (116.6, 119.9) | –0.27 (–0.31, –0.22) |
| 2050 | 89.3 (36.0, 142.6) | 73.3 (34.5, 112.1) | 109.9 (41.0, 178.9) | |||
| Southeast | ||||||
| 2022 | 106.1 (104.9, 107.4) | –0.46 (–0.51, –0.41) | 88.5 (87.3, 89.7) | –0.73 (–0.76, –0.70) | 123.1 (121.5, 124.7) | –0.25 (–0.31, –0.19) |
| 2050 | 93.5 (37.9, 149.2) | 72.4 (34.9, 109.8) | 115.0 (36.8, 193.3) | |||
[i] This table presents the projected median (25th and 75th quartile) age-standardized DALYs rate for rheumatic heart disease in 2022 and 2050 (first and last years of the projected period) for Brazil and its five constituent regions. For each group, we have also reported the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Confidence intervals for EAPC were calculated using bootstrap.
Figure 2
This panel of figures presents the observed (black dots) and projected (fan plot) age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (per 100,000 residents) in Brazil. The overall rate is reported in Panel A, while Panels B and C represent the results for males and females, respectively. The line in the fan plot represents the median with the edges corresponding to the 25th and 75th percentile. The figure also presents the EAPC (with 95% confidence interval) calculated for the projected period (2022–2050).
Table 3
Projected prevalence rates of RHD in Brazil for each age bracket.
| AGE GROUP | YEAR | OVERALL | EAPC | MALE | EAPC | FEMALE | EAPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGE-STANDARDIZED RATES PER 100,00 (95%CI) | |||||||
| 5 to 14 years | 2022 | 748.7 (741.1, 756.3) | 685.4 (678.0, 692.9) | 814.8 (806.3, 823.3) | |||
| 2050 | 703.6 (524.4, 943.9) | –0.22 (–0.22, –0.22) | 676.1 (498.7, 916.7) | –0.05 (–0.05, –0.05) | 733.6 (544.2, 988.8) | –0.37 (–0.37, –0.37) | |
| 15 to 24 years | 2022 | 1842.5 (1827.1, 1858.0) | 1630.1 (1615.6, 1644.7) | 2062.6 (2045.1, 2080.3) | |||
| 2050 | 1729.3 (1324.3, 2257.8) | –0.22 (–0.22, –0.22) | 1604.4 (1216.3, 2116.0) | –0.05 (–0.05, –0.05) | 1856.8 (1415.6, 2434.8) | –0.37 (–0.37, –0.37) | |
| 25 to 34 years | 2022 | 2178.9 (2161.0, 2197.0) | 1879.4 (1862.9, 1896.0) | 2477.6 (2456.8, 2498.6) | |||
| 2050 | 2050.0 (1602.5, 2621.3) | –0.23 (–0.22, –0.23) | 1849.7 (1431.9, 2388.5) | –0.06 (–0.05, –0.06) | 2243.4 (1746.4, 2880.4) | 0.37 (–0.37, –0.38) | |
| 35 to 44 years | 2022 | 1895.5 (1880.0, 1911.1) | 1615.2 (1601.2, 1629.4) | 2166.7 (2148.7, 2184.9) | |||
| 2050 | 1812.5 (1437.0, 2285.0) | –0.19 (–0.17, –0.21) | 1611.1 (1265.1, 2050.6) | –0.04 (–0.06, –0.02) | 2001.7 (1580.6, 2533.3) | –0.32 (–0.35, –0.28) | |
| 45 to 54 years | 2022 | 1353.3 (1342.2, 1364.4) | 1133.3 (1123.4, 1143.2) | 1561.1 (1548.2, 1574.2) | |||
| 2050 | 1311.7 (1048.2, 1640.3) | –0.12 (–0.16, 0.09) | 1144.1 (905.7, 1444.4) | 0.02 (–0.01, 0.04) | 1463.6 (1165.1, 1837.2) | –0.24 (–0.27, –0.2) | |
| 55 to 64 years | 2022 | 881.4 (874.1, 888.6) | 716.0 (709.7, 722.3) | 1030.3 (1021.7, 1039.0) | |||
| 2050 | 863.5 (692.2, 1076.4) | –0.06 (–0.09, –0.03) | 729.3 (579.2, 917.7) | 0.08 (0.05, 0.11) | 978.2 (781.2, 1223.9) | –0.18 (–0.19, –0.13) | |
| 65 to 74 years | 2022 | 580.7 (576.0, 585.5) | 460.9 (456.9, 465.0) | 680.7 (675.0, 686.5) | |||
| 2050 | 573.9 (460.2, 715.2) | 0 (–0.03, 0.02) | 473.1 (375.9, 595.2) | 0.13 (0.11, 0.15) | 653.4 (521.9, 817.2) | –0.11 (–0.13, –0.09) | |
[i] This table presents the projected median (25th and 75th quartile) prevalence rates for each studied age bracket for rheumatic heart disease in 2022 and 2050 (first and last years of the projected period) for Brazil. For each group, we have reported the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Confidence intervals for EAPC were calculated using bootstrap.
Table 4
The projected disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) in Brazil for each age bracket.
| AGE GROUP | YEAR | OVERALL | EAPC | MALE | EAPC | FEMALE | EAPC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGE-STANDARDIZED RATES PER 100,00 (95%CI) | |||||||
| 5 to 14 years | 2022 | 43.7 (42.8, 44.6) | 40.4 (39.4, 41.4) | 47.3 (46.3, 48.3) | |||
| 2050 | 29.0 (16.9, 49.7) | –1.45 (–1.45, –1.45) | 26.6 (15.8, 44.7) | –1.48 (–1.48, –1.48) | 31.8 (17.7, 57.0) | –1.41 (–1.41, –1.41) | |
| 15 to 24 years | 2022 | 104.4 (102.6, 106.2) | 95.7 (93.7, 97.8) | 113.2 (111.3, 115.2) | |||
| 2050 | 69.5 (41.7, 115.6) | –1.45 (–1.46, –1.45) | 63.1 (38.9, 102.3) | –1.48 (–1.48, –1.48) | 76.4 (43.7, 133.2) | –1.41 (–1.41, –1.4) | |
| 25 to 34 years | 2022 | 127.3 (125.1, 129.4) | 110.0 (107.7, 112.3) | 144.4 (141.9, 146.8) | |||
| 2050 | 88.4 (52.4, 144.4) | –1.38 (–1.43, 1.31) | 74.5 (47.3, 117.3) | –1.43 (–1.46, –1.39) | 102.9 (60.1, 175.9) | –1.31 (–1.37, –1.23) | |
| 35 to 44 years | 2022 | 131.8 (129.6, 134.1) | 107.0 (104.8, 109.3) | 155.7 (153.1, 158.3) | |||
| 2050 | 97.3 (60.5, 156.3) | –1.16 (–1.27, –1.04) | 76.1 (49.2, 117.4) | –1.28 (–1.36, –1.2) | 119.1 (70.6, 200.8) | –1.04 (–1.18, –0.9) | |
| 45 to 54 years | 2022 | 124.2 (122.1, 126.3) | 95.2 (93.2, 97.2) | 150.8 (148.3, 153.4) | |||
| 2050 | 97.0 (61.0, 153.5) | –0.87 (–1, –0.74) | 70.8 (46.3, 108.0) | –1.06 (–1.16, –0.96) | 123.7 (73.9, 207.0) | –0.69 (–0.85, –0.54) | |
| 55 to 64 years | 2022 | 102.3 (100.1, 104.5) | 96.3 (94.3, 98.3) | 147.2 (144.7, 149.7) | |||
| 2050 | 102.5 (64.5, 162.7) | –0.58 (–0.69, –0.47) | 75.8 (49.8, 115.0) | –0.82 (–0.92, –0.72) | 127.9 (76.6, 213.2) | –0.38 (–0.5, –0.26) | |
| 65 to 74 years | 2022 | 123.2 (121.1, 125.3) | 102.7 (100.5, 104.8) | 139.8 (137.5, 142.2) | |||
| 2050 | 106.9 (67.3, 169.7) | –0.39 (–0.45, –0.34) | 84.6 (55.7, 128.3) | –0.61 (–0.68, –0.55) | 126.6 (75.9, 211.1) | –0.21 (–0.27, –0.16) | |
[i] This table presents the projected median (25th and 75th quartile) DALYs rates for each studied age bracket for rheumatic heart disease in 2022 and 2050 (first and last years of the projected period) for Brazil. For each group, we have reported the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC). Confidence intervals for EAPC were calculated using bootstrap.
| asPR | Age-standardized prevalence rate |
| asDALY | Age-standardized disability-adjusted life years |
| EAPC | Estimated annual percentage change |
| GBD | Global burden of disease |
| RHD | Rheumatic heart disease |