Figure 1
Location of the study sites.
Figure 2
Showing actors in grazing decision around a specific grazing field of Sangar.
Table 1
A synthesis of the regional and national seasonal forecasts from bulletins by IGAD-ICPAC and UNMA.
| Season | Inter-Governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) Forecast | Uganda National Meteorological Authority (UNMA) forecast | Synthesis |
|---|---|---|---|
| November 2014–February 2015 | Near normal to warmer Sea Surface Temperatures of Indian Ocean. Rains outlook above normal to below in Karamoja region | Elnino warning as a build up in Indian Ocean and farmers advised to take advantage of above normal rains | Forecast very abstract and on refers to crop farming and other sectors but not pastoralism |
| March–May 2015 | Above near rainfall in the region | Near normal rainfall across the country with influence of local features particularly Lake Victoria | Rainfall intensity, small spatial scale indicative patterns of irregular light rains provided in country forecast. No supportive map |
| June–August 2015 | Increased likelihood of above normal rains and warmer temperatures | Near normal rainfall and tendency to below normal. Karamoja region chances of below normal rainfall | Disjuncture between the forecasts with greater horn forecast predicting above normal while country predicting below normal for Karamoja region |
| September–November 2015 | Seasonal outlook sustained forecasted above normal rainfall | Specially Karamoja region forecast below normal rainfall with intermittent dry spells | Inconsistent forecasts but potentially useful forecast at country level |
| December 2015–February 2016 | Seasonal outlook sustained forecasted near normal rainfall | Country forecast of near normal rainfall and normal temperatures | Consistent forecasts |
| March–May 2016 | Increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall and near normal temperatures | Start of rains with possible peaks in October November | Rainfall intensity, small spatial scale indicative patterns of irregular light rains provided in country forecast. Supportive map but still generic |
| June–August 2016 | Increased likelihood above normal rainfall and near normal temperatures | Country forecast of near normal rainfall and normal temperatures | Forecast very abstract and on refers to crop farming and other sectors but not pastoralism |
Figure 3
Showing past and present migratory routes in Karamoja.