Retrofitting Norwegian residential buildings: an archetype-based dynamic stock model

The retrofit of buildings is essential to reduce their energy consumption and associated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this study, the resource use and energy performance of various retrofit options for Norway’s residential buildings up to 2050 were quantified. A comprehensive analysis of the stock, encompassing all municipalities and using an archetype-based dynamic stock model, was developed. It was estimated that about 80% of Norway’s buildings existing in 2023 will still be standing in 2050. If half of these buildings undertake a full retrofit of windows, roof and external walls and adoption of heat pumps, up to 101 TWh of energy and 13 MtCO₂-eq could be saved, which includes the GHG emissions expended from material production used for these retrofits. However, achieving such retrofit rates will require strong incentives, which would require tackling current economic challenges and energy policy debates.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Residential buildings have a long lifetime: around 80% of residential buildings existing in 2023 in Norway might still be standing in 2050. Many older buildings are highly energy inefficient and retrofitting these buildings is a necessity to reduce their energy consumption. This study demonstrates that in every Norwegian municipality a significant potential exists for energy savings and GHG emission reduction through retrofit and adoption of heat pumps, even when accounting for material production. Although the Norwegian electricity production system is highly decarbonised, it has a limited capacity. Reducing the electricity consumption of Norwegian residential buildings would therefore facilitate the electrification of fossil fuel-dependent sectors and contribute to a greater extent to climate change mitigation.