Have a personal or library account? Click to login
Megatrends and weak signals shaping future real estate Cover

Megatrends and weak signals shaping future real estate

By: Saija Toivonen  
Open Access
|Jul 2025

References

  1. 1Ahlqvist, T., & Rhisiart, N. (2015). Emerging pathways for critical futures research: Changing contexts and impacts of social theory. Futures, 71, 91104. 10.1016/j.futures.2015.07.012
  2. 2Ahlqvist, T., & Uotila, T. (2020). Contextualizing weak signals: Towards a relational theory of futures knowledge. Futures, 119, 102543. 10.1016/j.futures.2020.102543
  3. 3Ahvenharju, S., Minkkinen, M., & Lalot, F. (2018). The five dimensions of futures consciousness. Futures, 104, 113. 10.1016/j.futures.2018.06.010
  4. 4Airikkala, M., Seppälä, A., Toivonen, S., & Mattila, H. (2025). Future orientation of urban development megaprojects. Nordic Journal of Urban Studies, 5(1), 122. 10.18261/njus.5.1.2
  5. 5Babatunde, B. O., & Adebisi, A. (2012). Strategic environmental scanning and organization performance in a competitive business environment. Economic Insights—Trends and Challenges, 64 (1), 2434. https://upg-bulletinse.ro/old_site/archive/20121/3.%20Babatunde_Adebisi.pdf
  6. 6Balemi, N., Füss, R., & Weigand, A. (2021). COVID-19’s impact on real estate markets: Review and outlook. Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, 35(4), 495513. 10.1007/s11408-021-00384-6
  7. 7Bartkowiak, P., Potrawiak, P., & Pavlenko, J. (2018). Psychological factors affecting purchasing decisions on the real estate market. Zeszyty Naukowe Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Krakowie, 6(978), 153168. 10.15678/ZNUEK.2018.0978.0609
  8. 8Bell, W. (2003). Foundations of futures studies: History, purpose, and knowledge. Human Science for a New Era Vol. 1. Transaction.
  9. 9Bennett, N., & Lemoine, G. J. (2014). What a difference a word makes: Understanding threats to performance in a VUCA world. Business Horizons, 5, 17. 10.2139/ssrn.2406676
  10. 10Bhardwaj, S. S., & Kumar, D. (2014). Environmental scanning by FMCG companies in India: A comparative study. International Journal of Management and International Business Studies, 4(1), 3950. https://www.ripublication.com/ijmibs-spl/ijmibsv4n1spl_06.pdf
  11. 11Bogataj, D., McDonnell, D. R., & Bogataj, M. (2016). Management, financing and taxation of housing stock in the shrinking cities of aging societies. International Journal of Production Economics, 181, 213. 10.1016/j.ijpe.2016.08.017
  12. 12Bostanara, M., Siripanich, A., & Hossein Rashidi, T. (2024). A realistic framework for modelling residential relocation behaviour considering past, present, and future using DDCM: A Sydney case study. Cities, 153, 105245. 10.1016/j.cities.2024.105245
  13. 13Brett, D. L. (2019). Real estate market analysis—Trends, methods, and information sources. Urban Land Institute.
  14. 14Castaño-Rosa, R., Pelsmakers, S., Järventausta, H., Poutanen, J., Tähtinen, L., Rashidfarokhi, A., & Toivonen, S. (2022). Resilience in the built environment: Key characteristics for solutions to multiple crises. Sustainable Cities and Society, 87, 104259. 10.1016/j.scs.2022.104259
  15. 15Cole, R. (2023). Transition to a regenerative future: A question of time. Buildings & Cities, 4(1), 457474. 10.5334/bc.333
  16. 16Comelli, T., Pelling, M., Hope, M., Ensor, J., Filippi, M. E., Menteşe, E. Y., & McCloskey, J. (2024). Normative future visioning: A critical pedagogy for transformative adaptation. Buildings & Cities, 5(1), 83100. 10.5334/bc.385
  17. 17Cooke, H., Fiorentino, S., Harris, R., Livingstone, N., & McAllister, P. (2022). Corporate occupiers’ attitude to flex space in the post-Covid environment. Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 40(5), 493507. 10.1108/JPIF-02-2022-0011
  18. 18Crosby, N., Gibson, V., & Murdoch, S. (2003). UK commercial property lease structures: Landlord and tenant mismatch. Urban Studies, 40(8), 14871516. 10.1080/00420980320000944
  19. 19Datta, A. (2019). Postcolonial urban futures: Imagining and governing India’s smart urban age. Environment and Planning D: Society and Space, 37(3), 393410. 10.1177/0263775818800721
  20. 20DiPasquale, D., & Wheaton, W. C. (1992). The markets for real estate assets and space: A conceptual framework. Journal of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, 20(2), 181197. https://www.proquest.com/scholarly-journals/markets-real-estate-assets-space-conceptual/docview/211137828/se-2
  21. 21Dobrovolska, O., & Fenenko, N. (2024). Forecasting trends in the real estate market: Analysis of relevant determinants. Financial Markets, Institutions and Risks, 8(3), 227253. 10.61093/fmir.8(3).227-253.2024
  22. 22Dowling, R., McGuirk, P., Maalsen, S., & Sadowski, J. (2021). How smart cities are made: A priori, ad hoc and post hoc drivers of smart city implementation in Sydney, Australia. Urban Studies, 58(16), 32993315. 10.1177/0042098020986292
  23. 23Dufva, M., & Rekola, S. (2023). Megatrends 2023—Understanding an era of surprises (Studies No. 225, January). SITRA. https://www.sitra.fi/app/uploads/2023/03/sitra-megatrends-2023.pdf
  24. 24ESPAS. (2019). Welcome to 2030: The megatrends. European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS). https://ec.europa.eu/assets/epsc/pages/espas/chapter1.html
  25. 25Fanning, S. (2005). Market analysis for real estate: Concepts and applications in valuation and highest and best use. Appraisal Institute.
  26. 26Florida, R., Rodríguez-Pose, A., & Storper, M. (2023). Critical commentary: Cities in a post-COVID world. Urban Studies, 60(8), 15091531. 10.1177/00420980211018072
  27. 27Geltner, D. M., & Miller, N. G. (2007). Commercial real estate analysis and investments. South Western.
  28. 28Glaeser, E. L. (2022). Urban resilience. Urban Studies, 59(1), 335. 10.1177/00420980211052230
  29. 29Glickman, E. A. (2013). An introduction to real estate finance. Elsevier.
  30. 30Gonzalez, S., & Oosterlynck, S. (2014). Crisis and resilience in a finance-led city: Effects of the global financial crisis in Leeds. Urban Studies, 51(15), 31643179. 10.1177/0042098013519142
  31. 31Gordon, T. J., & Glenn, J. C. (2009). Environmental scanning. In Glenn, J. C., & Gordon, T. J. (Eds.), Futures research methodology. Version 3.0 [CD-ROM]. Millennium Project.
  32. 32Gupta, A., Mittal, V., & Van Nieuwerburgh, S. (2022). Work from home and the office real estate apocalypse (Working Paper No. 30526). National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). http://www.nber.org/papers/w30526
  33. 33Heinonen, S., & Karjalainen, J. (2019). Pioneer analysis as a futures research method for analysing transformations. Poli, R., & Valerio, M. (Eds.), Anticipation, agency and complexity (Vol. 4, pp. 6177). Springer Nature. 10.1007/978-3-030-03623-2_5
  34. 34Heinonen, S., Karjalainen, J., Taylor, A., Rashidfarokhi, A., Toivonen, S., & Tähtinen, L. (2023). Constructive conversations on resilient urban futures. Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). https://www.utupub.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/174308/FFRC_eBooks_1-2023.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
  35. 35Heinonen, S., Sivonen, R., Karjalainen, J., Taylor, A., Toivonen, S., & Tähtinen, L. (2024). Testing urban resilience with immersive CLA and what if? Finland Futures Research Centre (FFRC). https://www.utupub.fi/bitstream/handle/10024/176366/FFRC_eBook_1-2024.pdf?sequence=5&isAllowed=y
  36. 36Hiltunen, E. (2010). Weak signals on organizational futures learning (Doctoral dissertation, University of Turku). https://aaltodoc.aalto.fi/server/api/core/bitstreams/f1f2a55a-093a-4fad-ad6f-4d14fd5a2e6b/content
  37. 37Hines, A., Gary, J., Daheim, C., & van der Laan, L. (2017). Building foresight capacity: Toward a foresight competency model. World Futures Review, 9(3), 123141. 10.1177/1946756717715637
  38. 38Hoesli, M., & Malle, R. (2023). Commercial real estate prices in Europe after COVID-19. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 16(3), 340358. 10.1108/JERER-09-2023-0031
  39. 39Huuhka, S. (2016). Vacant residential buildings as potential reserves: A geographical and statistical study. Building Research & Information, 44(8), 816839. 10.1080/09613218.2016.1107316
  40. 40Huuhka, S., Moisio, M., Salmio, E., Köliö, A., & Lahdensivu, J. (2023). Renovate or replace? Consequential replacement LCA framework for buildings. Buildings & Cities, 4(1), 212228. 10.5334/bc.309
  41. 41Iloniemi, J., & Limnell, J. (2018). Uhkakuvat. Docendo Oy.
  42. 42Jarva, V. (2010). Arjen tulevaisuustyö ja kuluttajakasvatus. Futura, 1(10), 522.
  43. 43JLL. (2025). Global real estate perspective (May). JLL. https://www.jll.com/en-us/insights/market-perspectives/global
  44. 44Kazmi, A. (2008). Strategic management and business policy, 3rd edn. Tata McGraw-Hill.
  45. 45Kim, C.-H., & Kim, K.-H. (2001). Short-term leases, long-term investments, and tradable goodwill. Journal of Housing Economics, 10(2), 162175. 10.1006/jhec.2001.0281
  46. 46Kiviaho, A., & Toivonen, S. (2023). Reimagining alternative future development trajectories of shrinking Finnish cities. International Planning Studies, 29(1), 118. 10.1080/13563475.2023.2259109
  47. 47KTI. (2017). Syyskuun KTI Kiinteistötietoisku: Toimitilavuokrasopimusmallit. https://kti.fi/syyskuun-kti-kiinteistotietoisku-toimitilavuokrasopimusmallit/
  48. 48KTI. (2025). KTI Kiinteistömarkkinakatsaus—Kevät 2025. https://view.taiqa.com/kti/kti-markkinakatsaus-kevat-2025#/page=1
  49. 49Kuusi, O., & Kamppinen, M. (2002). Tulevaisuuden tekeminen. In Kamppinen, M., Kuusi, O., & Söderlund, S. (Eds.), Tulevaisuuden Tutkimus, Perusteet ja Sovellukset (pp. 117170). Suomalaisen Kirjallisuuden Seura.
  50. 50Lombardo, T. (2007). The evolution and psychology of future consciousness. Journal of Futures Studies, 12(1), 124. https://jfsdigital.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/01/121-A01.pdf
  51. 51Lombardo, T. (2016). Future consciousness: The path to purposeful evolution—An introduction. World Futures Review, 8(3), 116140. 10.1177/1946756716673636
  52. 52Lu, Y., Girling, C., Martino, N., Kim, J., Kellett, R., & Salter, J. (2023). Climate action at the neighbourhood scale: Comparing municipal future scenarios. Buildings & Cities, 4(1), 83102. 10.5334/bc.275
  53. 53Lundgren, R., Kyrö, R., & Olander, S. (2023). The lifecycle impact and value capture of circular business models in the built environment. Construction Management and Economics, 42(6), 527544. 10.1080/01446193.2023.2279743
  54. 54McDonald, J. F., & Stokes, H. H. (2011). Monetary policy and the housing bubble. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 46(3), 437451. 10.1007/s11146-011-9329-9
  55. 55Miller, R. (2007). Futures literacy: A hybrid strategic scenario method. Futures, 39, 341362. 10.1016/j.futures.2006.12.001
  56. 56Mourouzi-Sivitanidou, R. (2021). Market analysis for real estate. Routledge.
  57. 57Myers, D., & Kitsuse, A. (2000). Constructing the future in planning: A survey of theories and tools. Journal of Planning Education and Research, 19(3), 221231. 10.1177/0739456X0001900301
  58. 58Naisbitt, J. (1984). Megatrends: Ten new directions transforming our lives. Warner.
  59. 59OECD. (2023). Government at a glance 2023, country notes. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). d1080a88-en.pdf
  60. 60Pouru, L., & Tähkäpää, O. (2018). Me kaikki tarvitsemme tulevaisuuslukutaitoa. https://www.sitra.fi/blogit/kaikki-tarvitsemme-tulevaisuuslukutaitoa/
  61. 61PwC. (2024). Megatrends—Five global shifts reshaping the world we live in. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC). https://pwc.com/gx/en/issues/megatrends.html
  62. 62Ratcliffe, J. S. (1999). Property futures: The need for foresight. Property Management, 17(3). 10.1108/pm.1999.11317caa.001
  63. 63Ratcliffe, J. S. (2000). Scenario building. Property Management, 18(2), 127144. 10.1108/02637470010328322
  64. 64Richardson, L. (2024). Automated office infrastructures and the valuation of work. Environment and Planning D: Society and Space. 10.1177/02637758231218799
  65. 65Riekkinen, K., Toivonen, S., Krigsholm, P., Hiironen, J., & Kolis, K. (2016). Future themes in the operational environment of the Finnish cadastral system. Land Use Policy, 57, 702708. 10.1016/j.landusepol.2016.06.039
  66. 66Rohrbeck, R. (2010). Towards a maturity model for organizational future orientation. Academy of Management Proceedings, 2010(1), 16. 10.5465/ambpp.2010.54493637
  67. 67Rohrbeck, R., & Kum, M. E. (2018). Corporate foresight and its impact on firm performance: A longitudinal analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 129(4), 105116. 10.1016/j.techfore.2017.12.013
  68. 68Saiz, A., & Salazar, A. (2020). Real trends: The future of real estate in the United States (Working Paper Series No. 20/05). MIT Center for Real Estate Research. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3100934
  69. 69Schaar, J. H. (1981). Legitimacy in the modern state. Transaction.
  70. 70Sharpe, B. (2013). Three horizons: Patterning of hope. Triarchy.
  71. 71Sharpe, B., Hodgson, A., Leicester, G., Lyon, A., & Fazey, I. (2016). Three horizons: A pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 115. 10.5751/ES-08388-210247
  72. 72Tähtinen, L., & Toivonen, S. (2024). Expanding horizons: A framework for developing futures-oriented resilience in the built environment. Building Research & Information, 53(3), 281304. 10.1080/09613218.2024.2426471
  73. 73Tähtinen, L., Toivonen, S., & Rashidfarokhi, A. (2023). Evading danger: The crisis impact framework for real estate. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 27(5), 332350. 10.3846/ijspm.2023.20444
  74. 74Tähtinen, L., Toivonen, S., & Rashidfarokhi, A. (2024). Landscape and domains of possible future threats from a societal point of view. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management, 32, e12529. 10.1111/1468-5973.12529
  75. 75Tarpio, J., de la Rosa, R. C., & Pelsmakers, S. (2024). Promoting resilience in Finland: Built environment professionals’ perspectives. Building Research & Information, 53(3), 305322. 10.1080/09613218.2024.2380799
  76. 76Toivonen, S. (2011). The future commercial real estate market—The forces of change, influences and preferences in the Helsinki metropolitan area (Doctoral dissertation, Aalto University, School of Engineering, Department of Surveying). https://urn.fi/URN:ISBN:978-952-60-4419-4
  77. 77Toivonen, S. (2021). Advancing futures thinking in the real estate field. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 14(1), 150166. https://www.emerald.com/insight/content/doi/10.1108/jerer-01-2020-0003/full/html
  78. 78Toivonen, S. (2024a). Indicator: Futures resilience of real estate. In Vaattovaara, M., Jännes, J., & Posti, M. (Eds.), Towards more sustainable residential areas: Indicators of neighbourhood and block sustainability (pp. 205213). Helsinki Institute of Urban and Regional Studies (Urbaria). 10.31885/9789515183088
  79. 79Toivonen, S. (2024b). The resilient urban environment at all levels and with all its actors. In Toivonen, S., Heinonen, S., Verma, I., Castaño-Rosa, R., & Wilkinson, S. (Eds.), Real estate and sustainable crisis management in urban environments: Challenges and solutions for resilient cities. Routledge/Taylor & Francis. 10.1201/9781003474586
  80. 80Toivonen, S., Rashidfarokhi, A., & Kyrö, R. (2021). Empowering upcoming city developers with futures literacy. Futures, 129, 102734. 10.1016/j.futures.2021.102734
  81. 81Toivonen, S., Sinisalo, H., & Uusitalo, E. (2023). The wakeup call of Covid-19: Perceptions of crisis impacts in the real estate market. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 27(1), 6475. 10.3846/ijspm.2023.18842
  82. 82Toivonen, S., & Viitanen, K. (2015). Forces of change shaping the future commercial real estate market in the Helsinki Metropolitan Area in Finland. Land Use Policy, 42, 471478. 10.1016/j.landusepol.2014.09.004
  83. 83Toivonen, S., & Viitanen, K. (2016). Environmental scanning and futures wheels as tools to analyze the possible future themes of the commercial real estate market. Land Use Policy, 52, 5161. 10.1016/j.landusepol.2015.12.011
  84. 84van Overbeek, R., Ishaak, F., Geurts, E., & Remøy, H. (2024). The added value of environmental certification in the Dutch office market. Journal of European Real Estate Research, 17(1), 7086. 10.1108/JERER-04-2023-0010
  85. 85Weinsziehr, T., Grossmann, K., Gröger, M., & Bruckner, T. (2017). Building retrofit in shrinking and ageing cities: A case-based investigation. Building Research & Information, 45(3), 278292. 10.1080/09613218.2016.1152833
  86. 86Wilkinson, S., & Reed, R. (2008). Property development. Routledge.
  87. 87Wofford, L. (2020). It’s about time. Journal of Property Investment &Finance, 39(1), 2530. 10.1108/JPIF-06-2020-0064
  88. 88Z punkt. (n.d.). Megatrends update—Understanding the dynamics of global change. Z punkt. https://z-punkt.de/uploads/files/web1_zp_megatrends_a5.pdf
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/bc.507 | Journal eISSN: 2632-6655
Language: English
Submitted on: Oct 2, 2024
Accepted on: Jun 10, 2025
Published on: Jul 4, 2025
Published by: Ubiquity Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year

© 2025 Saija Toivonen, published by Ubiquity Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.