Table 1
Carbon values in 2020 prices/tCO2
| YEAR | EMISSIONS (£) | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| LOW | CENTRAL | HIGH | |
| 2020 | £120 | £241 | £361 |
| 2021 | £122 | £245 | £367 |
| 2022 | £124 | £248 | £373 |
[i] Note: The value in bold was used in Scenario 1.
Source: BEIS (2021a).
Table 2
Estimated costs of retrofitting ‘to an acceptable standard’
| ENERGY PERFORMANCE CERTIFICATE BAND | COST (£) |
|---|---|
| A–E | £13,300 |
| F–G | £26,800 |
Figure 1
Lower layer super output area (LSOA)-level distribution of multiple deprivation in the City of Southampton.
Note: Areas of higher deprivation are shown in darker shades and are concentrated in Woolston, Bevoir and Redbridge. The more affluent (lighter shaded) area comprises the central Avenue and University Highfield Campus neighbourhoods.
Source: MHCLG (2019).
Figure 2
Observed 2020 Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) counts by the 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) decile for Southampton versus the rest of England.
Figure 3
Observed 2020 Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) counts by the percentage of social renters decile for Southampton versus the rest of England.
Figure 4
Observed 2020 Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) counts by the percentage of private renters (in 2011, lower layer super output area (LSOA) level) decile for Southampton versus the rest of England.
Table 3
Mean per dwelling emissions estimates for a range of sources
| SOURCE | tCO2e/YEAR | % OF TOTAL | MINIMUM–MAXIMUM (tCO2e) |
|---|---|---|---|
| All consumption-based emissions | 17.13 | 5.85–44.96 | |
| Gas use | 1.76 | 10.3% | 0.01–3.66 |
| Electricity use | 1.00 | 5.8% | 0.66–1.46 |
| Other energy use | 0.12 | 0.7% | 0.00–1.15 |
| Personal transport use | 2.11 | 12% | 0.76–4.22 |
[i] Source: CREDS: Southampton lower layer super output areas (LSOAs) (tCO2e).
Table 4
Scenario 2 carbon values’ thresholds
| CARBON COST (£) | THRESHOLD (%) | THRESHOLDS BY EMISSIONS SOURCE (TCO2E PER DWELLING PER YEAR) | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ALL CONSUMPTION | GAS | ELECTRICITY | ||
| £122 | < 25% | < 11.9 | < 1.4 | < 0.9 |
| £245 | 25–50% | 11.9–15.5 | 1.4–1.7 | 0.9–0.99 |
| £367 | > 50% | > 15.5 | > 1.7 | > 0.99 |
Table 5
Imputed number of dwellings by Energy Performance Certificate (EPC) band for the City of Southampton versus all English lower layer super output areas (LSOAs)
| EPC BAND | CITY OF SOUTHAMPTON | ALL ENGLISH LSOAS | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NUMBER OF DWELLINGS | % | NUMBER OF DWELLINGS | % | |
| A | 124 | 0.12% | 39,885 | 0.17% |
| B | 12,081 | 11.29% | 2,513,218 | 10.79% |
| C | 33,672 | 31.47% | 6,667,431 | 28.61% |
| D | 41,797 | 39.06% | 9,628,696 | 41.32% |
| E | 15,469 | 14.46% | 3,743,328 | 16.06% |
| F | 2,763 | 2.58% | 502,139 | 2.15% |
| G | 1,105 | 1.03% | 207,380 | 0.89% |
Figure 5
Sum of lower layer super output area (LSOA)-level dwelling bands D–G retrofit costs by LSOA-level 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score deciles.
Table 6
Highest and lowest layer super output area (LSOA)-level emissions and carbon costs per dwelling by source (based on the £245/tCO2 scenario)
| EMISSIONS SOURCE | LSOA | DEPRIVATION (IMD) DECILE | WARD | tCO2e PER DWELLING PER YEAR | CARBON COST PER DWELLING PER YEAR (£) | ESTIMATED TOTAL ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME (£) | % OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All consumption | E01017249 | 8 | Shirley | 44.96 | £11,015 | £58,400 | 18.9% |
| E01017140 | 3 | Bargate | 5.80 | £1,432 | £34,100 | 4.2% | |
| Gas use | E01017249 | 8 | Shirley | 3.66 | £897 | £58,400 | 1.5% |
| E01032746 | 7 | Bargate | 0.01 | £3 | £40,800 | 0.0% | |
| Electricity use | E01032746 | 7 | Bargate | 1.46 | £358 | £40,800 | 0.9% |
| E01017278 | 4 | Woolston | 0.66 | £161 | £34,100 | 0.5% |
[i] Note: IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation.
Figure 6
Lower layer super output area (LSOA) level per dwelling carbon ‘levy’ for ‘all consumption emissions’ against the 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score.
Notes: Coloured by the score decile, median £ cost per dwelling is plotted. The smoothed line is fitted using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) (Wickham 2016).
Figure 7
Lower layer super output area (LSOA) level per dwelling carbon ‘levy’ for ‘gas and electricity emissions’ against the 2019 Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) score.
Notes: Coloured by the score decile, the size of the point represents the proportion of electric heating. The smoothed line is fitted using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) (Wickham 2016).
Figure 8
Years required to cover the estimated retrofit costs for each lower layer super output area (LSOA) using an ‘all consumption emissions’ carbon levy—assuming a constant levy value.
Notes: A median value of 3.7 years is plotted. The smoothed line is fitted using locally estimated scatterplot smoothing (LOESS) (Wickham 2016).
Figure 9
Lower layer super output area (LSOA)-level total bands D–G retrofit costs against equally shared year 1 total consumption emissions-based carbon cost levy.
Note: LSOAs are ordered by total retrofit costs within wards.
Table 7
Highest and lowest lower layer super output area (LSOA)-level emissions and carbon costs per dwelling by source (rising block tariff)
| EMISSIONS SOURCE | LSOA | DEPRIVATION (IMD) DECILE | WARD | tCO2e PER DWELLING PER YEAR | CARBON COST PER DWELLING PER YEAR (£) | ESTIMATED TOTAL ANNUAL HOUSEHOLD INCOME (£) | % OF ESTIMATED ANNUAL INCOME |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All consumption | E01017249 | 8 | Shirley | 44.96 | £13,148 | £58,400 | 22.5% |
| E01017140 | 3 | Bargate | 5.80 | £713 | £34,100 | 2.1% | |
| Gas use | E01017249 | 8 | Shirley | 3.66 | £965 | £58,400 | 1.7% |
| E01032746 | 7 | Bargate | 0.01 | £1 | £40,800 | 0.0% | |
| Electricity use | E01032746 | 7 | Bargate | 1.46 | £313 | £40,800 | 0.8% |
| E01017278 | 4 | Woolston | 0.66 | £80 | £34,100 | 0.2% |
[i] Note: IMD = Index of Multiple Deprivation.
Figure 10
Costs (£ millions) per lower layer super output area (LSOA) for ‘all consumption’-based emissions levy by Index of Multiple Deprivation (IMD) decile under each scenario.
Figure 11
Years required to cover the estimated retrofit costs for each lower layer super output area (LSOA) under each scenario using an ‘all consumption emissions’ carbon levy—assuming a constant levy value.
Note: The x = y line is plotted.