Abstract
This remote sensing study compares growth occurring in three urban types between 2005 and 2014: peri-urban, rural and urban, in a fast-growing metropolitan region west of Mexico City. Future urban growth for the period 2014–24 is modelled using the land-use/cover change (LUCC) model Geomod. Urban expansion is correlated with some socio-territorial factors and the impacts are assessed for the loss of biomass. In both periods, the urban zone differed the most from the other two in terms of urban expansion. The Geomod predictions overestimate the urban expansion in the urban zone and underestimate it in the peri-urban and rural zones. Significant differences exist in the average urban expansion between zones. The main urban growth drivers were elevation, population density, distance to previous urban land and distance to roads. A substantial loss of biomass is due to urban growth, including expansion and infill. The research reveals significant differences in growth between peri-urban, rural and urban areas, and contributes spatial information for designing focused land-use policies in dynamic urban contexts.
Policy relevance
This article contributes to understanding the differentiated urban growth of urban, peri-urban and rural areas, which can translate into more precise and effective public policies. Urban expansion and infill patterns differ. For peri-urban and rural areas, the main growth is infill, so actions should be implemented to sustainably manage the vacant or undeveloped land within an existing human settlement to prevent further expansion, but also to avoid the loss of priority areas for the provision of ecosystem services. In urban areas where the main urban increment is expansion, sensible consolidation decisions need to be taken to avoid further urban expansion and the incorporation of urban green space.