Table 1
Numbers and ASRs of hypertensive heart disease burden and their temporal trends from 1990 to 2023.
| LOCATION | 1990 | 2023 | 1990–2023 | 1990 | 2023 | 1990–2023 | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MORTALITY CASES | ASMR (95% UI) | MORTALITY CASES | ASMR (95% UI) | FOLD CHANGE (1990 = 1) | EAPC (95% CI) | DALYs CASES | ASDR (95% UI) | DALYs CASES | ASDR (95% UI) | FOLD CHANGE (1990 = 1) | EAPC (95% CI) | |
| Global | 732.01 (529.24, 893.68) | 21.24 (15.61, 25.65) | 1487.75 (1192.61, 1809.49) | 16.78 (13.48, 20.37) | 1.03 | −0.67 (−0.84, −0.50) | 15654.91 (11288.65, 19292.08) | 409.79 (298.17, 504.99) | 28504.65 (22891.29, 35295.04) | 316.09 (253.86, 391.81) | 0.82 | −0.79 (−0.96, −0.62) |
| Sex | ||||||||||||
| Male | 372.36 (275.25, 486.97) | 24.76 (18.95, 31.88) | 639.31 (507.21, 815.36) | 16.42 (13.03, 20.85) | 0.72 | −1.14 (−1.32, −0.97) | 8700.11 (6340.59, 11462.41) | 495.68 (368.48, 646.08) | 13725.88 (10813.59, 17770.94) | 328.43 (260.46, 423.10) | 0.58 | −1.18 (−1.35, −1.01) |
| Female | 359.65 (225.06, 479.11) | 18.32 (11.66, 24.22) | 848.44 (644.12, 1118.38) | 16.72 (12.68, 22.19) | 1.36 | −0.28 (−0.44, −0.11) | 6954.80 (4301.03, 9300.71) | 334.13 (208.78, 445.43) | 14778.78 (11033.63, 20127.98) | 300.33 (223.07, 410.50) | 1.12 | −0.39 (−0.57, −0.22) |
| SDI | ||||||||||||
| Low SDI | 82.25 (53.34, 119.04) | 28.72 (18.71, 41.15) | 264.11 (175.83, 379.22) | 34.62 (22.79, 49.68) | 2.21 | 0.58 (0.53, 0.63) | 1977.59 (1285.23, 2938.23) | 558.98 (368.83, 812.12) | 5970.44 (4043.70, 8428.29) | 660.55 (446.53, 934.14) | 2.02 | 0.48 (0.41, 0.55) |
| Low‑middle SDI | 75.70 (49.01, 108.22) | 25.76 (16.78, 37.44) | 197.00 (136.73, 285.02) | 25.73 (17.82, 37.47) | 1.6 | 0.06 (0.00, 0.12) | 1759.42 (1135.51, 2552.03) | 490.37 (319.01, 697.56) | 4139.23 (2914.79, 5903.56) | 469.71 (330.85, 669.81) | 1.35 | −0.08 (−0.15, −0.02) |
| Middle SDI | 84.72 (60.08, 110.07) | 31.91 (22.69, 41.45) | 198.94 (149.15, 258.55) | 26.18 (19.67, 34.06) | 1.35 | −0.64 (−0.75, −0.54) | 1973.35 (1397.31, 2565.87) | 628.92 (452.62, 810.44) | 4392.57 (3334.34, 5628.96) | 513.93 (390.61, 662.61) | 1.23 | −0.63 (−0.72, −0.54) |
| High‑middle SDI | 205.74 (126.93, 273.23) | 37.87 (23.84, 49.74) | 315.53 (231.25, 371.05) | 16.93 (12.33, 19.92) | 0.53 | −2.46 (−2.90, −2.01) | 4429.15 (2752.45, 5910.56) | 695.00 (436.53, 915.09) | 5728.99 (4370.20, 6790.02) | 292.26 (221.94, 345.61) | 0.29 | −2.66 (−3.09, −2.23) |
| High SDI | 279.82 (232.33, 323.17) | 14.66 (12.25, 16.92) | 502.96 (427.54, 559.88) | 10.82 (9.26, 11.99) | 0.8 | −0.80 (−0.91, −0.69) | 5445.24 (4563.93, 6376.52) | 269.96 (226.81, 314.64) | 8126.78 (7200.36, 8927.40) | 186.96 (166.36, 204.96) | 0.49 | −1.07 (−1.18, −0.97) |
| Region | ||||||||||||
| High‑income Asia Pacific | 17.05 (14.23, 19.50) | 10.43 (8.53, 11.98) | 25.30 (18.21, 31.28) | 3.40 (2.61, 4.16) | 0.48 | −3.10 (−3.78, −2.41) | 281.26 (237.97, 316.93) | 156.84 (132.13, 177.52) | 315.59 (247.59, 379.10) | 52.79 (42.64, 63.90) | 0.12 | −3.10 (−3.75, −2.45) |
| High‑income North America | 23.14 (20.64, 24.97) | 6.62 (5.89, 7.14) | 85.45 (74.53, 93.40) | 12.53 (11.16, 13.63) | 2.69 | 1.99 (1.80, 2.19) | 489.29 (447.75, 524.49) | 145.73 (133.18, 156.43) | 1696.15 (1547.18, 1824.42) | 284.21 (260.96, 306.51) | 2.47 | 2.21 (2.06, 2.35) |
| Western Europe | 53.59 (46.77, 59.50) | 8.91 (7.74, 9.93) | 109.95 (86.54, 124.13) | 8.36 (6.73, 9.38) | 1.05 | 0.30 (0.10, 0.49) | 817.38 (732.76, 893.12) | 136.87 (122.75, 149.85) | 1342.71 (1128.69, 1486.17) | 113.57 (97.72, 124.66) | 0.64 | −0.11 (−0.27, 0.05) |
| Australasia | 0.75 (0.66, 0.81) | 3.48 (3.03, 3.80) | 1.57 (1.31, 1.76) | 2.27 (1.93, 2.53) | 1.1 | −1.10 (−1.45, −0.74) | 12.74 (11.54, 13.80) | 56.70 (50.83, 61.56) | 23.69 (20.66, 26.01) | 38.61 (34.20, 42.03) | 0.86 | −1.01 (−1.41, −0.61) |
| Andean Latin America | 2.34 (1.94, 2.83) | 13.23 (10.97, 16.14) | 5.28 (4.33, 6.67) | 8.70 (7.12, 10.98) | 1.26 | −1.22 (−1.52, −0.91) | 46.67 (38.71, 55.65) | 234.11 (194.55, 279.04) | 95.21 (80.92, 117.11) | 150.74 (127.97, 184.85) | 1.04 | −1.20 (−1.52, −0.89) |
| Tropical Latin America | 16.95 (15.11, 18.90) | 22.20 (19.50, 24.90) | 30.44 (26.63, 33.21) | 11.64 (10.15, 12.71) | 0.8 | −1.76 (−1.88, −1.64) | 390.19 (354.77, 430.19) | 439.13 (396.38, 485.73) | 582.90 (525.75, 624.91) | 218.84 (196.92, 234.56) | 0.49 | −1.98 (−2.10, −1.87) |
| Central Latin America | 12.69 (11.75, 13.53) | 18.11 (16.66, 19.38) | 25.10 (22.50, 27.82) | 10.20 (9.12, 11.32) | 0.98 | −1.86 (−2.10, −1.62) | 247.31 (231.17, 262.07) | 318.43 (297.97, 338.21) | 432.88 (393.21, 472.83) | 168.26 (152.77, 183.96) | 0.75 | −2.03 (−2.31, −1.75) |
| Southern Latin America | 7.34 (6.56, 8.17) | 18.29 (16.22, 20.40) | 15.31 (13.30, 17.06) | 14.50 (12.68, 16.11) | 1.09 | −0.66 (−0.82, −0.51) | 132.79 (120.54, 146.68) | 305.07 (275.25, 337.73) | 218.26 (195.30, 241.09) | 218.01 (196.34, 240.52) | 0.64 | −0.95 (−1.10, −0.81) |
| Caribbean | 4.74 (4.17, 5.40) | 18.33 (16.20, 20.84) | 13.80 (12.08, 16.02) | 24.40 (21.31, 28.34) | 1.91 | 1.20 (0.93, 1.46) | 102.14 (89.30, 118.30) | 381.63 (334.00, 442.07) | 281.27 (242.89, 332.74) | 502.51 (432.67, 595.72) | 1.75 | 1.11 (0.85, 1.37) |
| Central Europe | 31.34 (29.45, 33.24) | 23.63 (21.98, 25.14) | 62.30 (56.02, 66.76) | 26.45 (23.77, 28.37) | 0.99 | 0.69 (0.50, 0.87) | 589.74 (557.70, 623.86) | 412.78 (389.42, 437.04) | 973.97 (897.89, 1037.87) | 425.77 (394.08, 452.60) | 0.65 | 0.41 (0.23, 0.58) |
| Eastern Europe | 13.03 (11.37, 14.58) | 5.01 (4.37, 5.62) | 25.07 (22.54, 27.58) | 7.03 (6.30, 7.75) | 0.92 | 1.21 (0.45, 1.98) | 313.18 (274.47, 349.78) | 113.92 (99.60, 127.32) | 460.71 (419.36, 505.33) | 128.42 (116.83, 141.18) | 0.47 | 0.24 (−0.54, 1.02) |
| Central Asia | 6.82 (5.90, 7.88) | 17.82 (15.47, 20.64) | 13.05 (11.41, 15.09) | 18.42 (16.10, 21.29) | 0.91 | 0.56 (−0.05, 1.18) | 148.01 (128.87, 169.12) | 342.01 (296.89, 391.96) | 266.00 (231.62, 305.67) | 326.47 (284.84, 375.40) | 0.8 | 0.01 (−0.63, 0.65) |
| North Africa and Middle East | 60.54 (39.89, 84.20) | 48.97 (32.21, 67.44) | 150.50 (118.19, 196.64) | 40.82 (31.91, 53.50) | 1.49 | −0.57 (−0.62, −0.52) | 1366.35 (895.52, 1890.87) | 898.87 (597.58, 1233.62) | 3067.58 (2383.50, 3942.34) | 700.75 (551.33, 907.62) | 1.25 | −0.78 (−0.83, −0.72) |
| South Asia | 90.04 (51.10, 137.97) | 21.86 (12.59, 33.70) | 317.62 (205.27, 460.24) | 26.04 (16.77, 38.06) | 2.53 | 0.72 (0.65, 0.80) | 2096.65 (1194.12, 3161.86) | 407.65 (236.30, 620.58) | 6488.07 (4259.78, 9355.43) | 457.08 (301.50, 657.07) | 2.09 | 0.49 (0.41, 0.57) |
| Southeast Asia | 52.61 (32.91, 77.03) | 24.48 (15.29, 35.67) | 127.70 (84.51, 174.38) | 19.59 (12.92, 26.58) | 1.43 | −0.73 (−0.78, −0.68) | 1283.34 (799.48, 1910.61) | 514.39 (323.67, 755.65) | 3085.33 (2081.71, 4191.37) | 430.28 (291.06, 585.59) | 1.4 | −0.54 (−0.59, −0.49) |
| East Asia | 282.36 (167.11, 399.37) | 44.82 (26.64, 62.61) | 316.87 (209.31, 391.06) | 14.41 (9.42, 17.89) | 0.12 | −3.62 (−4.24, −3.00) | 5935.03 (3531.80, 8587.70) | 780.49 (472.19, 1099.86) | 5252.19 (3690.38, 6301.93) | 230.14 (159.85, 275.57) | −0.12 | −3.91 (−4.48, −3.34) |
| Oceania | 0.67 (0.46, 0.96) | 28.55 (19.79, 39.71) | 1.67 (1.13, 2.42) | 24.43 (16.68, 35.89) | 1.5 | −0.73 (−0.79, −0.66) | 19.04 (13.03, 27.16) | 632.75 (437.91, 899.23) | 47.46 (32.36, 70.29) | 549.66 (375.31, 793.47) | 1.49 | −0.65 (−0.72, −0.58) |
| Western Sub‑Saharan Africa | 16.96 (10.71, 24.93) | 23.04 (14.86, 33.89) | 44.50 (27.86, 65.01) | 23.34 (14.68, 34.12) | 1.62 | −0.17 (−0.24, −0.09) | 438.58 (273.85, 637.63) | 495.23 (315.04, 721.04) | 1213.60 (765.34, 1754.13) | 522.10 (332.78, 748.30) | 1.77 | −0.00 (−0.10, 0.09) |
| Eastern Sub‑Saharan Africa | 23.82 (13.72, 36.93) | 37.96 (22.33, 58.80) | 74.09 (45.37, 110.53) | 41.31 (25.43, 60.98) | 2.11 | 0.17 (0.10, 0.24) | 572.04 (323.89, 903.99) | 735.59 (431.84, 1130.17) | 1659.15 (1029.66, 2475.57) | 810.85 (503.39, 1201.05) | 1.9 | 0.22 (0.15, 0.30) |
| Central Sub‑Saharan Africa | 6.42 (3.61, 10.54) | 39.44 (23.17, 64.64) | 21.84 (12.22, 34.34) | 44.60 (24.89, 70.65) | 2.4 | 0.22 (0.11, 0.33) | 175.82 (97.78, 282.62) | 794.66 (458.61, 1297.22) | 559.04 (322.10, 857.84) | 900.36 (512.99, 1406.13) | 2.18 | 0.24 (0.11, 0.37) |
| Southern Sub‑Saharan Africa | 8.81 (6.61, 11.50) | 36.27 (27.28, 47.06) | 20.33 (15.63, 26.14) | 33.89 (25.94, 43.93) | 1.31 | −0.24 (−0.46, −0.01) | 197.37 (147.74, 252.94) | 729.40 (548.81, 941.83) | 442.91 (343.81, 557.87) | 671.99 (517.69, 848.48) | 1.24 | −0.28 (−0.52, −0.04) |
Figure 1
Global disease burden of HHD in 204 countries or territories in 2023.
(A, C): Age‑standardised mortality rate (ASMR, per 100,000) and DALY rate (ASDR, per 100,000), with darker colours indicating higher rates. (B, D): Estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASMR and ASDR; negative values indicate decline, positive values indicate increase. Insets show regional variations in selected areas.
Figure 2
Percentage changes in HHD burden by SDI category and global region, 2023 compared with 1990.
(A) Percentage changes in HHD burden across Socio‑demographic Index (SDI) categories. (B) Percentage changes in HHD burden across 21 global regions. Bars indicate the percentage change in HHD burden from 1990 to 2023. Red bars represent changes in the number of deaths, and green bars represent changes in DALYs.
Figure 3
Percentage changes in HHD by sex and age group across SDI regions.
(A) ASDR by sex. (B) ASMR by sex. (C) ASDR by age group. (D) ASMR by age group. SDI, sociodemographic index; ASDR, age‑standardised DALY rate; DALYs, disability‑adjusted life years.
Figure 4
Trends in global HHD burden changes from 1990 to 2023.
(A, B, C) Age‑standardised mortality rate (ASMR, per 100,000) for both sexes, males, and females, respectively, by SDI category. (D, E, F) Age‑standardised DALY rate (ASDR, per 100,000) for both sexes, males, and females, respectively, by SDI category. Lines represent different SDI levels as indicated in the legend.
Figure 5
Regional and gender‑specific decomposition analyses of HHD burden.
(A) 21 GBD regions (both sexes combined). (B) By sex. Bars represent contributions from ageing (yellow), epidemiological change (teal), and population growth (orange); black dots indicate total change.
Figure 6
Health inequality analysis of HHD‑related deaths (1990 and 2023).
(A) Lorenz curves showing cumulative HHD deaths by SDI‑ranked population; concentration index values are indicated. (B) Relationship between age‑standardised death rate and SDI rank; bubble size represents population, and trend lines show slope indices of inequality.
Figure 7
Projections of HHD burden from 2024 to 2050.
(A, B) BAPC model projections of age‑standardised HHD rates per 100,000 population among females and males, respectively, from 2024 to 2050. Solid lines indicate posterior median estimates, and shaded areas represent posterior credible intervals (50%, 80%, and 95%).
Figure 8
Trends in HHD burden changes influenced by low temperature and high temperature from 1990 to 2023.
(A, C) Age‑standardised mortality rate (ASMR) for males and females, respectively, by SDI category, stratified by low and high temperature. (B, D) Age‑standardised DALY rate (ASDR) for males and females, respectively, by SDI category, stratified by low and high temperature. Lines indicate temperature‑specific contributions to HHD burden.
| HHD | Hypertensive Heart Disease |
| GBD | Global Burden of Disease |
| DALYs | Disability‑Adjusted Life Years |
| ASRs | Age‑Standardised Rates |
| ASMR | Age‑Standardised Mortality Rate |
| ASDR | Age‑Standardised DALY Rate |
| SDI | Socio‑Demographic Index |
| BAPC | Bayesian Age–Period–Cohort |
| EAPC | Estimated Annual Percentage Change |
| SII | Slope Index of Inequality |
| CI | Concentration Index |
| DWs | Disability Weights |
| YLD | Years Lived with Disability |
| YLL | Years of Life Lost |
| ICD‑10 | International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision |
| UI | Uncertainty Interval |
| IHME | Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation |
| WHO | World Health Organization |