Figure 1
Chronological establishment and expansion of CCHF natural foci in Southern Kazakhstan 1948–2022.
Table 1
Zhambyl region CCHF incidence and climate data for 2014–2023.
| VARIABLE | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual average mean surface temp (°C) | 9.6 | 11.6 | 11.31 | 10.64 | 10.28 | 11.29 | 10.51 | 11.25 | 11.61 | 12.07 |
| Average min surface air temp (°C) | 3.37 | 5.26 | 5.24 | 4.51 | 4.13 | 5.19 | 4.41 | 5.02 | 5.71 | 5.93 |
| Average max surface air temp (°C) | 15.86 | 17.1 | 17.42 | 16.8 | 16.45 | 17.42 | 16.64 | 17.51 | 17.54 | 18.24 |
| Annual precipitation (mm) | 239.52 | 265.17 | 320.49 | 257.72 | 238.61 | 205.6 | 217.74 | 191.41 | 263.27 | 227.63 |
| CCHF incidence rate (cases) | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
Table 2
Kyzylorda region CCHF incidence and climate data for 2014–2023.
| VARIABLE | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual average mean surface temp (°C) | 9.88 | 11.48 | 11.76 | 11.06 | 11.31 | 11.62 | 11.34 | 11.72 | 11.82 | 12.77 |
| Average min surface air temp (°C) | 3.39 | 5.47 | 5.69 | 4.79 | 3.98 | 5.25 | 4.97 | 5.3 | 5.78 | 6.29 |
| Average max surface air temp (°C) | 16.38 | 17.52 | 17.85 | 17.35 | 16.66 | 18.02 | 17.74 | 18.16 | 17.87 | 19.27 |
| Annual precipitation (mm) | 123.38 | 195.66 | 140.2 | 122.07 | 133.18 | 111.99 | 114.32 | 96.69 | 128.46 | 128.43 |
| CCHF incidence rate (cases) | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 20 | 13 |
Table 3
South Kazakhstan (Turkistan and Shymkent city) region CCHF incidence and climate data for 2014–2023.
| VARIABLE | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Annual average mean surface temp (°C) | 11.99 | 13.35 | 13.67 | 12.9 | 12.82 | 13.68 | 12.7 | 13.66 | 13.9 | 14.48 |
| Average min surface air temp (°C) | 5.39 | 7.14 | 7.27 | 6.37 | 6.37 | 7.34 | 6.37 | 7.23 | 7.93 | 8.11 |
| Average max surface air temp (°C) | 18.62 | 19.6 | 20.11 | 19.46 | 19.3 | 20.07 | 19.05 | 20.13 | 19.9 | 20.89 |
| Annual precipitation (mm) | 311.24 | 341.43 | 365.54 | 302.76 | 265.99 | 270.02 | 271.17 | 236.04 | 342.95 | 261.52 |
| CCHF incidence rate (cases) | 4 | 6 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 19 | 14 |
Table 4
Statistical analysis of CCHF incidence and climate variables (2014–2023).
| METRIC | KYZYLORDA | ZHAMBYL | SOUTH KAZAKHSTAN |
|---|---|---|---|
| Climate Influence | Strong | Weak | Moderate |
| Statistical Significance | Yes (P = 0.011) | No (P = 0.634) | Borderline (P = 0.050) |
| Predictive Capacity | High (R² = 0.90) | Low (R² = 0.35) | Moderate (R² = 0.79) |
| Total Cases | 76 | 46 | 92 |
| Peak Year | 2022 (20 cases) | 2023 (12 cases) | 2022 (19 cases) |