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Asbestos Consumption and Malignant Mesothelioma Mortality Trends in the Major User Countries Cover

Asbestos Consumption and Malignant Mesothelioma Mortality Trends in the Major User Countries

Annals of Global Health
Volume 89 (2023): Issue 1
By: Claudio Gariazzo,  Antonio Gasparrini and  Alessandro Marinaccio  
Open Access
|Feb 2023

Figures & Tables

Table 1

Asbestos consumption for selected countries (countries with more than two million tonnes of asbestos consumption in the period 1933–2012) in four 20-year periods, and percentage of variation by period and country.

REGIONCOUNTRYASBESTOS CONSUMPTION (TONS)
OVERALL (1933–2012)1933–19521953–19721973–19921993–2012
VARIATION [%]VARIATION [%]VARIATION [%]
AmericaBrazil (BZ)6,702,39280,684609,4356553,006,7293933,005,5450
AmericaCanada (CAN)3,149,032573,0121,212,9921121,077,619–11285,408–74
AmericaMexico (MX)2,088,30153,393460,7967631,143,907148430,205–62
AmericaUnited States of America (US)26,441,6397,784,42713,027,033675,515,179–58115,000–98
AsiaChina (CN)15,957,81027,3612,070,6657,4683,843,0348610,016,751161
AsiaIndia (IN)7,043,272141,417641,3333541,916,8801994,343,643127
AsiaJapan (JP)11,209,668405,9773,289,0657106,036,293841,478,333–76
AsiaRepublic of Korea (ROK)2,139,07360,503297,5933921,222,174311558,803–54
AsiaThailand (TH)4,091,998–207,671–1,473,5006102,410,82764
EuropeBelgium (BE)1,956,961213,121949,752346746,671–2147,417–94
EuropeFrance (FR)4,672,674518,2132,051,0292961,943,113–5160,319–92
EuropeGermany (DE)9,202,903872,7333,677,7553214,640,0442612,371–100
EuropeItaly (IT)4,513,664350,7571,773,2804062,389,40735220–100
EuropePoland (PL)2,460,80454,276663,0071,1221,585,806139157,714–90
EuropeRussia (RU)45,344,6661,494,2557,989,48843526,721,5662349,139,357–66
EuropeSpain (ES)2,190,00572,072739,0229251,173,81559205,096–83
EuropeUnited Kingdom (UK)6,177,4051,810,2542,999,349661,318,343–5649,459–96
OceaniaAustralia (AU)2,061,747288,057995,438246765,180–2313,072–98
Table 2

Number of mesothelioma deaths for selected countries (with more than 2 million tonnes of asbestos consumption in the period 1920–2012) by period and percentage of variation.

FIVE-YEAR PERIODAUSTRALIABELGIUMBRAZILCANADAFRANCEGERMANYITALYJAPANMEXICOPOLANDREPUBLIC OF KOREASPAINUNITED KINGDOMUNITED STATES OF AMERICA
1998–20022,2378215581,4823,7925,0375,0953,5096203081131,2518,43411,923
2003–20072,6219613661,8524,2925,7576,0254,8608935132321,4409,66512,417
Variation [%]1717–342513141839446710515154
2008–20123,0931,1044122,1764,9206,7296,9686,1931,1349243841,90411,48113,056
Variation [%]181513171517162727806632195
2013–20173,3931,2255082,4895,0257,1867,9507,3951,3321,5125082,14812,71512,659
Variation [%]101123142714191764321311–3
Total11,3444,1111,8447,99918,02924,70926,03821,9573,9793,2571,2376,74342,29450,055
agh-89-1-4012-g1.png
Figure 1

Overall asbestos consumption (1933–2012) and malignant mesothelioma deaths (1998–2017) for selected countries. Regression curve and 95% confidence interval. In red, countries with incomplete mortality data, with asterisk countries missing mortality data. Country abbreviations are the following: Australia (AU), Belgium (BE), Brazil (BZ), Canada (CAN), China (CN), Germany (DE), Spain (ES), France (FR), India (IN), Italy (IT), Japan (JP), Mexico (MX), Poland (PL), Republic of Korea (ROK), Russia (RU), Thailand (TH), United Kingdom (UK), United States of America (US).

agh-89-1-4012-g2.png
Figure 2

Country-specific relative risk (RR) of malignant mesothelioma and pooled meta-analytical curves (in red) and 95% confidence intervals (in grey) by age (upper), asbestos consumption at lag 30 years (middle), lag at 3.8 tons/10,000 inhabitants of asbestos exposure (bottom). Baselines for RR are set to 50 years for age, and 0 for both exposure-response and lag-response. Country abbreviations are the following: Australia (AU), Belgium (BE), Canada (CAN), Germany (DE), Spain (ES), France (FR), Italy (IT), Japan (JP), Poland (PL), Republic of Korea (ROK), United Kingdom (UK), United States of America (US).

Table 3

Country specific model performances: male population (average in the observed period); observed and predicted malignant mesothelioma cases for males in the period of data availability (Years), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Spearman correlation coefficients between observed and predicted cases by year.

COUNTRY CODEMALIGNANT MESOTHELIOMA CASES
MEAN MALE POPULATION (1950–2018)YEARSOBSERVEDPREDICTEDMEAN SQUARED ERROR (MSE)SPEARMAN COEFFICIENT
AU7,912,5281998–20189,5739,15019.40.96
FR26,379,6222000–201410,2409,92326.70.81
DE37,741,3951998–201820,46119,95046.60.92
IT27,017,5832003–201715,03514,64230.00.96
JP55,511,3921995–201820,02719,36025.60.99
CAN13,136,9912000–20176,1256,06710.40.98
ES18,270,9661999–20174,8924,44116.60.94
UK27,935,7422001–201629,24128,37827.30.99
US122,640,8541999–201737,87536,15562.40.61
PL16,916,3181999–20182,3852,35810.00.98
BE4,863,0041998–20163,1773,09111.60.86
ROK19,378,2961995–20189549455.30.97
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5334/aogh.4012 | Journal eISSN: 2214-9996
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Language: English
Submitted on: Nov 8, 2022
Accepted on: Jan 25, 2023
Published on: Feb 13, 2023
Published by: Ubiquity Press
In partnership with: Paradigm Publishing Services
Publication frequency: 1 issue per year
Keywords:
mesothelioma,
asbestos,
mortality,
international ban,
distributed non-linear models

© 2023 Claudio Gariazzo, Antonio Gasparrini, Alessandro Marinaccio, published by Ubiquity Press
This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

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