Oil Price and Exchange Rate Volatility in Nigeria

This study examined oil price influence on the Nigeria exchange rate volatility spanning the retro of thirty five (35) years. The Simultaneous equation modeling of Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) techniques were adopted, to analyzed the data stream from 1983 – 2019. A dynamic framework analysis that includes test of unit root, descriptive statistics and co-integration preliminary test were carried out. Specifically, the empirical findings show that the coefficient of oil price and other variables (rate of interest, inflation rate and external reserve) considered has varying degree of significant relationship with volatility of exchange rate in Nigeria both in the succinct and long run during the retro under review. The study concludes that oil price has a long run positive non-significant influence on exchange rate volatility and a short run negative non-significant influence on exchange rate volatility in Nigeria during the sample retro under concern.

JEL Classification: C22, O24, F31